The Current Issue

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A Happy, Harmonious, and Peaceful New Year!

The Editor

 

Current Concerns

Global financial stability       

Iraq splitting up

Iranian threat to choke off oil shipments in Strait of Hormuz

Continuing strife in Syria and Yemen

 

Noticed and Noted

The Kims

North Korea lost its leader on 17 December thus not only cutting short his 20-year long dictatorship but also the apprenticeship of the designated heir and son Kim Jong-un, 26 or 27. Now the supreme commander with a 70-year old general as minder is described as pudgy, awkward, and not ready according to the Frankfurter Rundschau. While not all the public outpouring of grief over the death of the “Beloved Leader” was sincere, the country was in shock and what little improvements had touched their lives, a good many people gave him credit for some betterment. It is too early to tell whether the young heir will be able to stay on top of any power struggle, take the country out of its international isolation, and drastically improve living conditions.

[December 2011]

Britain’s EU ‘cloak’

Britain’s conservative prime minister is a reluctant European like some of his predecessors but never absent when it comes to obtaining special rights from the European Union (EU) or demanding exceptions. His participation in recent summits on stabilizing the euro currency and rescuing members in debt, like Greece or Italy, earned him a temperamental reminder from the French prime minister that the UK was not a member of the Eurozone. While the government insists that it is acting on Britain’s economic problems, the leader of the opposition Labour Party sees it differently. At a party conference on 12 November, he accused the prime minister of using the EU crisis as a “cloak” while leaving jobs, homes, and businesses “in jeopardy.” He noted that “growth stalled and problems started before the Eurozone crisis escalated.”

[November 2011]

 

US presidential campaign

For months governing the United States of America has been described as dysfunctional. It started in earnest when the Republican Party gained the majority in the House of Representatives last year and when its leaders and its boisterous supporters among Christian fundamentalists and the so-called Tea Party decided to deny President  Barack Obama a second term of office. Legislating became hardest when Republicans rejected practically all Administration initiatives, especially new ones, even at the chance of causing greater damage to the economy, image abroad, and to large numbers of citizens. This situation is aggravated by congressional and presidential elections in 2012, nearly 13 months away. Nine Republican candidates are lined up against the Democratic incumbent of which three appear to have better chances obtaining the party’s nomination. Collectively, the opposition contenders are representing the largest number of political extremists or incompetents, especially with respect to foreign affairs. This judgment comes from a former Republican national security adviser and a highly respected Republican strategist.

Name                         Age     Occupation    Education      Region            Wealth            Chances

Democratic Party

Barack Obama           50        President         JD                    IL                     $12mn             High

Republican Party*

Michelle Bachmann    55        Attorney (2)    LL.M.               MN                  $3mn               Low

Herman Cain              65        Businessman   MS                   GA                   $7mn               High-

Newt Gingrich            68        Professor (5)   PhD                 GA                   $31mn             Low

Jon M. Huntsman Jr.   51        Diplomat (1, 4)BA                  UT                    $70mn             Low

Ron Paul                      76        Physician (2)   MD                  TX                    $5mn               Medium

Rick Perry                   61        Governor (7)  BS                    TX                    $1mn               High

Buddy Roemer           68        Businessman (4) MBA            LA                    $2mn               Low

Mitt Romney               64        Governor (6)  MBA                MA                  $265mn            High

Rick Santorum            53        Lawyer (3)      JD                    PA                   $3mn               Low

*Party candidate will be determined by party state primary elections and nomination at the Republican Party National Convention.

Wealth in million US Dollar as reported by The New York Times, 29 Oct. 2011.

Chances based on composite polling results as reported by Politico, 30 October 2011.

(1) Former ambassador. (2) Member of Congress. (3) Former Senator. (4) Former governor.

(5) Former Speaker, House of Representatives. (6) Former investment banker. (7) Cotton farmer. (8) Lawyer.

[October 2011] Candidates in shaded areas have withdrawn [January 2012]

Toward a new German coalition?

After euphoric writings in Germany’s press how Federal Chancellor Dr. Angela Merkel called the bluff of the bankers and together with the French president steered the European Union (EU) to approving further measures to protect the Euro currency, her shaky standing and that of the coalition were briefly overlooked. This moment does not hide that chancellor and government remain in trouble with voters and with their own parties. All summer long, the government leader was criticized for wavering and holding back on making decisions. The black and yellow coalition government has been barely holding together since the defense minister had to take his leave and the leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) after much protestation gave up heading the coalition partner. Within Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) there were suddenly doubts whether she should continue leading—she does—and the leader of the Bavarian so-called sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), himself under attack from members, suddenly brought up issues on which he disagrees with Berlin. It is not surprising that during the summer suggestions were discussed about reentering into a coalition with the opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD). It’s not happening but not only has the SPD started to give limited support to some of Merkel’s initiatives but the television viewer is treated to more footage showing the chancellor and SPD’s Peer Steinbrück, the party’s candidate for chancellor, in apparent close consultation.

[October 2011]

Russian tandem government

Prime Minister Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin (born 7 October 1952) is to remain paramount leader is the consensus of Russian commentators, a view mirrored abroad. But except for adulation among his cronies and supporters, others are preparing themselves for four to eight years of continuing corruption and undemocratic governance under a system where business and the state have become one:

• ·        Ex-KGB members and a few apparatchiks are becoming wealthy;

• ·        Human rights workers and critical journalists risk being murdered;

• ·        Business and political opponents are exiled or jailed;

• ·        Demonstrations and anti-government protests are curbed or suppressed;

• ·        Media, especially television, are controlled by the state or intimidated; and

• ·        Courts are bullied or manipulated.

 

Back in March, the press reported growing tension between the campaign staffs of president and prime minister. On 28 March, a former prime minister and a deputy prime minister said that corruption in Russia had worsened under Putin’s rule and close associates had abused their positions for personal gain. Former President Mikhail Gorbachov at his 80^th birthday deplored that Putin had rolled back democracy during his two terms (May 2000-May 2008). Practically until president and prime minister announced their decision, many Russians and quite a few foreign governments assumed Putin would not claim the presidency. It remains for historians to find out whether the switch in the tandem government had always been planned.

 

On Saturday, 24 September, Putin told the party congress of United Russia (YeR) at Moscow's Luzhniki indoor football stadium that President Dmitriy Anatol’yevich Medvedev (born 14 September 1965) had asked him to stand for the presidency. In the absence of strong support for an opposition candidate, Putin will be elected on 4 March for his third four-year term which will last until 2014. If reelected a fourth time, he could serve until 2018.

Regrettably, criticism at home is confined to some commentators and opposition leaders, and some political leaders and the press abroad. Business seems to look only at finances and stability. At least two analyses by the Eurasia Foundation and Citigroup, reports the New York Times on 28 September, see the return of Putin to the presidency as being good for business. His government will be better because it’s going to be stable.

[September 2011]

 

What’s next after 90 years of Chinese Communism?

1 July marked the 90^th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). In the People’s Republic, party and cadre celebrated and there was no lack of exhibitions, a new movie, portraits of revolutionaries, theater performances, and “red tours” to sites significant in the party’s history. The day saw strong efforts by organizers to imbue citizens and members with the spirit and struggle in the days before October 1949 and reawaken pride in early achievements.  Despite economic growth, the rise of the economic and political influence in parts of the world, and new nationalism that is leading to unpleasant confrontations with neighbors, all the festivities and propaganda could not hide that the seven unelected leaders of China—the membership of the Standing Committee of the CPC Politburo—are uneasy about keeping the party’s powerful position. Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in a debate in Toronto on 24 June did not see China as the next “superpower” and noted “I believe the next decade will see China wrestling with the problem of how to bring its political institutions in line with its economic development.” Communist China has survived the demise of the Soviet Union by 20 years but even a cursory glance at recent events reveals the leaders’ concerns:

• Widespread corruption, bad behavior by party functionaries, abuse of office by local party officials.
• Loss of the revolutionary spirit and separation from the people. The party complains about lack of idealism, cynicism, careerism and a widening gulf between the wealthy and everybody else.
• Spreading of uncensored ideas, information, and news by citizens over the internet (On 5 May, creation of the State Internet Information Office was announced to further regulate the national internet community).
• Discouraging people from complaining and seeking legal remedies (On 31 July, it was reported that lawyers were told to reject cases dealing with the recent high-speed train accident and families of victims were discouraged to use courts to seek justice).
• Independent candidates: Efforts are made to halt self-proclaimed independent candidates to seek office on local bodies (9 June).
• Neglect of concerns of farmers and migrant workers, especially by appropriating land and removing grazing fields.
• Unemployment and migrant workers (On 13 June, workers in Zengcheng, Guangdong Province, protested against abuse of power and corruption of local officials).
• Minority issues, such as the reported exploitation of herders in Inner Mongolia by Chinese-controlled mining companies and protests to protect the environment from mining and loss of grazing pastures (29/30 May).

[July 2011] 

Could the Arab Spring touch Iraq?

Widespread revolt and unrest in countries of North Africa and the Middle East, described as the “Arab Spring,” so far is aiming at autocratic and dictatorial rulers and their regimes. Not a target today is Iraq where the prime minister is not a dictator but is receiving growing criticism for his quest for accumulating more power. Relatively free from threats from the ethnic and religious side, he and his corrupt bureaucracy are wide open to attacks from citizens over the lack of jobs, malfunctioning public services, and the short supply of power and water.  [May 2011] 

Preparing for the presidential election

“Go see Claude” characterizes aptly both the relationship French President Nicolas Sarkozy has with his new Minister of Interior Claude Guéant  (born 17 January 1945)and how he relies on and values his competence and experience. The ministerial appointment is seen in two ways: being in charge of security he will also be a promoter of one of the president’s major election themes in 2012 and equally significant he can again help with the presidential election campaign. Guéant followed the customary career path for French senior civil servants, passed through the right schools and eventually from 1994-1998 directed the National Police as its Director General. When Sarkozy headed the Ministry of Finance in 2002 and later Interior, Guéant served as his chief of staff until 2007 when he managed the presi-dential election campaign. On 16 May 2007 he became Secretary General of the Presidency, a position close to the head of state and affording influence into the whole array of governmental functions which also brought him into conflict with ministers at times who objected to outside interference. On 27 February 2011, the president appointed him to Hôtel de Beauvau, seat of the ministry. Guéant never ran for elected office but is a member of the governing Union for a Popular Movement (UMP). [April 2011]

Freedom to connect

The US Secretary of State, in a major policy speech on 15 February, renewed a pledge to keep the internet, a ‘public space,’ open. Although the long planned address tied in to events in Egypt and Tunisia where the internet was heavily used, it was also aimed at China which was mentioned by name. “We believe that governments who have erected barriers to internet freedom, whether they’re technical filters or censorship regimes or attacks on those who exercise their rights to expression and assembly online, will eventually find themselves boxed in,” warned the Secretary. She aimed right. Two days later, the foreign ministry in Beijing characterized the speech as an attempt to meddle in the affairs of other countries. On 19 February, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Hu Jintao, at a high-level meeting of ministers and governors, called for stronger control of information on the internet and regulation of the virtual society. On 26 February it was reported that not only were a number of networks, such as LinkedIn, blocked but searches for certain words also were prevented. [March 2011]