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March 2008 Vol. 27 No. 453 The 13-month old conservative-social democratic Austrian coalition government is not doing well. Federal Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer (SPÖ), 48, is criticized for lacking direction and determination. The interior ministry, again headed by a minister who belongs to the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), is now being investigated for having exercised undue political influence on police investigations before 2007, and officers of the BAWAG Bank for Labor and Economy, closely linked to the Austrian Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) and the Austrian Trade Union Federation (ÖGB), are being tried for fraud and falsification. Neither party likes the coalition in which the SPÖ had to give up a number of promises made during the elections but neither one wants to boldly request new elections. Since grand coalition has almost become a trademark of Austrian politics—7 of 11 postwar cabinets spanning 35 of 63 years—new elections probably will result—in another grand coalition. Without even a law governing Burmese elections in 2010, the military rulers have already made clear that Aung San Suu Kyi, 62, of the National League for Democracy (NLD) will be barred. Although elected legally in 1990 but prevented from exercising her rights for the past 18 years, mainly under house arrest, she is being disqualified because she is married to a foreigner. The junta is trying to appear democratic by presenting a new constitution and submitting it to a referendum in May but without any public discussion of its contents. Denmark’s newest political party, the New Alliance (Y), is shrinking rapidly. Founded in May 2007 as a liberal party opposed to both conservative and socialist policies, it received 2.8 percent of the vote in December and five seats in the 179-seat parliament. In February, two deputies left of which one replaced a conservative representative and saved the governing three-party coalition from losing its 90-seat majority, one more than required. Reason for the defection from the coalition is the steady influence of the anti-foreigner Danish People’s Party (DFp). Formation of new governments in German states of Hamburg and Hesse remains unresolved. It appears that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Alliance 90/The Greens will set up a coalition in the city state of Hamburg. The situation in Hesse is less clear where CDU, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the Left, and the Greens are still maneuvering to arrive at a solution. India is faced with demands for new states. When three new states were formed in 2000 it was clear that various regions and ethnic groups would continue to press their demands for statehood. In Tamil Nadu, two Hindu groups, the Moovendar Munnetra Kazhagam (MVMK) and the a-political Veera Vanniyar Pervai (VVP), are demanding that the state be split in northern and southern parts. Gurkhas, the majority population in Darjeeling, West Bengal, are in the process of obtaining autonomy. But now the Gurkha Liberation Forum (GLF) opposes the autonomy plan and demands a separate state, BBC reported on 19 February. Republican Senator John McCain has reached the needed number of delegates to become his party’s nominee for US president. After completing four more primaries on 5 March he obtained 1,224 delegates, 33 more than required and the last rival, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, withdrew. The see-saw contest for delegates continues for Democratic Senators Ms. Hillary Clinton and Obama Barack who are now hoping that the decision will be made in the Pennsylvania primaries on 22 April.
viewing the world One of the outstanding events of the month was the separation of the Province of Kosovo from Serbia and its unilateral declaration of independence as Republic of Kosovo. Not unexpected, except for the date of the proclamation, the consequences of this step may be filled with joy and relief for the Albanian population but for Europe and the international community new complexities and difficulties will spread. There is Serbian stubbornness and complete blindness to its participation in massacres, Russian support for Belgrade in part to show the United States that it counts and can make matters difficult, and finally international and European long-term responsibility for a small, landlocked, controversial country with a weak economy. The event probably cannot be reversed short of new bloodshed and war but one wonders what will happen if either the United Nations or an international court will void the separation. Today it looks more like the act by Kosovo will encourage any number of regions clamoring and fighting for autonomy or independence. Once some of them are successful, any belated legal findings will probably have little practical effect. Just like last month, there is no pleasure in reporting that none of the major trouble spots have disappeared. In Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine, and the Sudan fighting continues and people are displaced. In Kenya, government and opposition have agreed to share power and by now the arrangement mediated by the former Secretary General of the UN, Kofi Annan, has been approved by parliament and is constitutionally protected. Leadership at the top changed in Armenia and on Cyprus. While judged “fair” by international observers, dissatisfaction with the election of the Armenian prime minister to the presidency led to week-long demonstrations and eventually to a state of emergency. The main opponent, a former Armenian president, obtained about a fifth of the vote but his main ire was directed at the government which did not give him equal access to voters. The big upset on Cyprus was that the incumbent placed third and when the election went into runoff mode, he was eliminated. The next president leads the island’s communist party, a first in the European Union. Elections are also bringing changes to Pakistan and Taiwan. The two major opposition parties, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) whose leader was assassinated in December, and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) whose leader is banned by the president, gained the most votes and in coalition with others will try to return to more democratic ways of governing. On Taiwan too, the opposition Nationalist Party (Kuomintang, KMT) won a two-thirds majority and is ending 8 years of rule by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). An immediate effect is a lessening of anti-Beijing rhetoric although the KMT too is opposed to join the communist regime. (Under the KMT banner the Nationalists fought the Chinese Communists and finally withdrew the government of China to Taiwan in 1949.)
LEADERSHIP TURNOVER IN 2007 In 2007, 64 of the world’s current 194 states changed heads of state or government (68 in 2006). There were no coups d’état and two irregular heads of state relinquished their posts: Commodore Frank Voreque Bainimarama gave up the Presidency of Fiji on 4 January 2007 but assumed the office of Prime Minister on 6 January relieving the interim PM. Colonel Ely Ould Mohamed Vall, Head of the Military Council for Democracy and Justice (MCJD) stepped down as head of state of Mauritania after a president was elected. A number of the changes and elections that occurred would not pass the international standard of fairness and openness. There were 20 changes, incl. reelections of incumbents, at the head of state level (38 in 2006). At least 48 heads of government were elected, reelected, or newly appointed (43 in 2006). Two heads of state (Serb Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Samoa) and four heads of government (Armenia, Chad, China, and Saint Lucia) died in office. The chairmanship of the presidency rotated in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Switzerland and in San Marino two semi-annual changes took place. In Belgium, the outgoing prime minister was reappointed for an interim, limited term. Most of the changes again occurred in Europe (17; 21 in 2006), and in Asia (17; 17 in 2006), followed by Africa (13; 12 in 2006) and the Near East and North Africa (9; 6 in 2006). Fewer shifts took place in the Americas (8; 17 in 2006) and in Oceania (6; 8 in 2006). A number of widely known government leaders were not reelected or resigned during the year: [for listing, see printed issue]. REPUBLIC OF KOSOVO CREATED SERBIA, RUSSIA CHALLENGE INDEPENDENCE The Assembly of Kosovo declared the independence of the Kosovo Province from Serbia on 17 February and proclaimed the new Republic of Kosovo. The surprise of this controversial step had evaporated months ago, especially after the UN special envoy had submitted his proposal last March. Only the date was really in question but Kosovo officials had left no doubt that it would happen shortly after their presidential election. The Assembly of Kosovo by a vote of the 109 deputies present approved independence of the world’s 195th state, the Republic of Kosovo (Republika e Kosovës). Eleven members of the Assembly from ethnic minorities, incl. Serbs, were absent. Immediately following the approval and hoisting of a new flag—without the Albanian symbol—the prime minister asked 192 states to recognize the new state. On 27 February he declared that procedures to join the United Nations (UN), European Union (EU), North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) will start soon and that the government plans to open at least 20 embassies this year. Besides visceral objections from Serbia which has historical links to the province, albeit from an era long past, opponents and states with reservations maintain that territorial integrity is sacrosanct overlooking the equally valid right of people to self-determination (1). In an ideal situation, all parties would negotiate and arrive at a solution, probably a compromise (This, of course, also did not apply to some changes at the end of World War 2). After the Special Envoy on Kosovo’s Future Status of the UN Secretary General Martti Ahtisaari proposed separation and in meetings between Serbia and Kosovo no willingness to compromise existed, Serbia even saying, never, never, the outcome became clear. The envoy found that reintegration is not a viable option and proposed that “Kosovo’s status should be independence, supervised by the international community.” (2) The proposal was protested by Serbia and Russia. The latter, like some other states that are embroiled with groups seeking self-determination and possible independence, is concerned that a successful separation by Kosovo will complicate the situation in Chechnya and the Northern Caucasus where there are strong movements for full autonomy or independence. Ahtisaari Plan Under the Ahtisaari plan, Kosovo will not enjoy unlimited sovereignty. It will be supervised by an international presence, the International Steering Group (ISG), that will make sure it will not join another country (such as Albania or Macedonia), is committed to multi-ethnic democracy and protect the Serb minority and culture, and limit its armed forces. The ISG held its organizing meeting on 27 February in Vienna. It is composed of the members of the Kosovo Contact Group (France, Germany, Italy, Russia, UK and US). Russia did not participate but Austria was represented. Finland, Japan, Sweden, and Switzerland may join later, said the Austrian Ministry for European and International Affairs. In addition, on 16 February, foreign ministers of members of the European Union (EU) approved a 2,000-strong EU police and justice mission, European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX Kosovo) to Kosovo. It was launched on 17 February and is expected to take over from the UN in June. Recognition At least 27 governments have recognized the new nation, including 17 EU members: Afghanistan (1st to recognize, on 18 Feb.), Albania, Australia, Austria, Belgium (25 Feb.), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France (18 Feb.), Germany (20 Feb.), Ireland (the 22nd country on 29. Feb.), Italy (21 Feb.), Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Peru, Poland (26 Feb.), Sweden (4 Mar.), Switzerland (27 Feb.), Taiwan, Turkey, United Kingdom, and the United States of America (18 Feb.). Among those who have stated their opposition to the unilateral declaration of independence of Kosovo and are withholding recognition are Serbia, Argentina (concerned about the Falkland Islands/Malvinas), Bulgaria, China (concerned about Sinkiang and Tibet), Cyprus (concerned about Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus), Greece (concerned about Cyprus), Malta, Moldova (concerned about Transdniestr), Portugal, Romania, Russia (concerned about Chechnya and North Caucasus). Slovakia, and Spain (concerned about Basque region). Georgia, in the spirit of democracy would extend recognition but is hesitating because it does not wish to encourage Abkhazia and South Ossetia to declare independence unilaterally. [For factsheet, see printed issue]. updates significant events February African Union (AU): A 12-member commission to set up a union government was established (1). Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): Informal summit meeting was held in Moscow (22). European Union (EU): Turkey’s prime minister demanded full membership (9). World Trade Organization (WTO): After approval of membership, Ukraine signed agreement (5) and joined (7). Australia: In Parliament, the prime minister apologized to Aboriginal people (13). Belgium: Political leaders agreed on expansion of powers of the country’s three regions as part of the federal reform (25). Brazil: Government launched Território da Cidadania (Territories of Citizenship) anti-poverty program to create jobs and improve the infrastructure of poor parts of the country (26). Burma: Military regime announced that a constitutional referendum will be held in May and multi-party elections in 2010 (9). Cuba: Authorities approved release of 7 political dissidents who are being held since 2003 (15). Cyprus-Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC): President expressed his readiness to reopen talks about reunification of the island (18). Iraq: Law allowing members of former Arab Socialist Renaissance Party (Baath) to return to public life became effective (3). National Assembly approved bill to hold provincial elections (13) and Presidential Council rejected the measure (27). Kenya: President and leader of opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) opened power-sharing talks (12) and agreed on a coalition government (28). Kosovo: Kosovo Assembly proclaimed independence from Serbia (17). Nepal: Government and United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) signed a peace agreement and agreed on setting up an autonomous Mahdes region (29). Nigeria: An election tribunal dismissed two challenges to the presidential election in 2007 and held the voting valid (26). Taiwan: Trade office, closed in 1997, was reopened in the Libyan capital (21). Timor: Thirty-day state of emergency was extended for another 30 days (22). Turkey: President approved constitutional amendment lifting the contentious ban on wearing head scarves in universities (22). Republican People’s Party (CHP) asked Constitutional Court to declare the change unconstitutional (27). new government leaders Belize: Dean Barrow (UDP), Prime Minister, on 8 February. Cuba: General Raúl Castro Ruz (PCC), President, on 24 February. Cuba: José Ramón Machado Ventura (PCC), First Vice President, on 24 February. Cyprus: Dimitris Christofias (AKEL), President, on 28 February. Czech Republic: Václav Klaus (ODS), President, 2nd 5-year term on 15 February. Korea (ROK): Lee Myung Bak (GNP), President, on 25 February. Korea (ROK): Dr. Han Seung soon, Prime Minister, on 29 February. Montenegro: Milo Đjukanović, Prime Minister, on 20 February (4th time). São Tomé e Principe: Patrice Trovoada (ADI), Prime Minister, on 14 February. Serbia: Boris Tadić (DS), President, 2nd 4-year term on 15 February. Tanzania: Mizengo Kayanza Pinda (CCM), Prime Minister, on 9 February 2008. Trinidad and Tobago: George Maxwell Richards, President, 2nd 5-year term on 11 February. United Arab Emirates-Dubai: Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammad bin Rashed al-Maktoum, Crown Prince, on 1 February.
peace and stability Foreign military forces from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) hope to expand their presence in Afghanistan but lack domestic support. The Afghan president is dependent on the troops but is greatly concerned that every time civilians are killed, it helps Taliban in the tribal areas. He also has to cope with warlords, especially his ethnic-Uzbek adviser, General Abdul Rashid Dostum, whose bodyguards and police were at a standoff in Kabul. On 19 February, it was reported that the general has been suspended from government. Chad declared an emergency on 14 February after rebels of the National Alliance for Resistance (Alliance Nationale pour la Résistance, ANR) attacked the capital on 2 February and then withdrew two days later. Meanwhile, some 20,000 refugees were streaming into neighboring Cameroon while eastern Chad continued to receive 12,000 refugees from Darfur in Sudan. Both the United Nations (UN) and African Union (AU) condemned the ANR attack on 4 February. China reported on 19 February that it had destroyed a gang of Turkic Muslim Uigurs in a raid on an apartment in the Xinjiang capital of Urumqi in January. Libya, Senegal, Sudan, and Tanzania have promised troops to the African Union (AU) on 21 February to support the federal government of the Comoros to reestablish order on Anjouan island. The embargo on arms for armed groups in Congo (DR) and financial, transport, and travel sanctions were extended by UN Security Council Resolution 1799 on 15 February until 31 March. Members of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, banned since 1954 but frequently tolerated, are under renewed threat of arrest. To prevent possible candidacies in the April communal elections, police seized some 100 members, the group announced on 20 February. Eritrea and Ethiopia continue to interfere with the UN mission which is monitoring the ceasefire of 2000. On 15 February, the UN requested Eritrea to stop hindering the temporary relation of mission personnel across the border to Ethiopia. Police in India’s State of Chhattisgarh is taking the brunt of attacks by the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-M) or Maoists. In 2007, Maoist violence caused the death of 436 people, incl. 200 police officers, reports indiaenews. Early in February, a patrol was ambushed and four officers killed in the southern region. The leader of the Shi’a Mahdi Army in Iraq, Muqtada al-Sadr, extended the truce for six months on 22 February. Turkish troops invaded northern Iraq on 22 February to wage an offensive against militants of the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK). When the troops were withdrawn on 29 February they reported the death of 237 PKK fighters while Kurds said 5 members died. An official of Palestine’s Movement of Islamic Resistance (HAMAS) on 12 February renewed a call for a ceasefire between it and Israel. In the past, the Israeli government has rejected such proposals. A government official of Russia announced on 6 February that there are some 440 militants active in Chechnya. The Party of Youth (Al-Shabaab) claimed responsibility for bombings in the port of Bossaso, in Puntland of Somalia on 5 February which killed at least 20 people, incl. Ethiopian soldiers. The militant group is part of the anti-government Islamic Courts Union (ICU) which fights troops supporting the federal government, including those of Ethiopia in Mogadishu. Reaching agreement on a peace accord between the government of Uganda and Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) was getting closer at the end of February until the LRA leader Joseph Kony made new demands. A major stumbling block is the requested postponement of proceedings by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Kony. Zaidi tribal fighters and the Yemen government agreed to revive a 2007 peace agreement. Representatives of both sides with the mediation of Qatar, signed a document on procedures on 1 February in Doha, reported Al Jazeera. bio briefs Surveys and Documentation: World: Militant and Revolutionary Organizations Country Notes 2008 (Issue contains 37 pages.) |