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April 2008 Vol. 27 No. 454 The latest proposal to reform and expand the Security Council of the United Nations (UN) would add seven new members and give Brazil, Germany, India, and Japan permanent seats—without veto power. While the British government and others support such a step, Argentina, Italy, and Pakistan are opposed and the African Union (AU) voiced reservations unless more of its members are also included. Elections are planned in Afghanistan in 2009 and voter registration and planning need to begin, reports the Secretary General of the United Nations (UN) on 10 March. There are 249 seats in the House of People of the National Assembly and councils in 39 provinces and 376 districts. Of the latter, 36 in east, southeast, and south remain inaccessible to officials because of strong presence of Taliban radical forces. Equally serious is the fragility of political, economic, and social institutions, poor governance, and limited progress on human rights, notes the UN. Aside from the continuing insecurity, even in the capital, is the notion by some Afghans that human rights contradict local traditions and are a “luxury Afghanistan cannot afford.” The continuation of the conservative-social democratic Austrian coalition government is becoming more questionable. On 7 March, a special parliamentary committee began to look into charges of corruption by the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). The ÖVP had voted against the opposition motion to create the committee saying it would only serve politics and not the search for the truth. Later, the party became even more exercised when the social democrats supported the nomination of a member of the extreme right-wing Freedom and Alliance Future Austria (FPÖ) as committee chairman. The Socialist Party (PS) of France is demanding a reform of how the Senate is formed. Although the PS commands a majority in departments and cities over 15,000 people it is in the minority in the Senate (120 members on the Left and 189 on the Right and Center out of 326 seats). At the root of this imbalance is the current system under which local councils of communities with fewer than 1,500 inhabitants—representing about 22 percent of the country’s population—name 41 percent of the 150,000 electors of senators. The big cities where half of the country’s population is concentrated nominate only 30 percent of the electors. This inequality was designed to benefit rural areas but it also denies the PS equal representation in the Senate because about three-quarters of the small towns vote for the Right. (The 326 senators, 346 in 2010, are elected indirectly by deputies of the lower house, the National Assembly, and elected officials of local bodies, incl. mayors.) The position of Kurt Beck at the head of Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) is not shaky but today there are two certainties: he will not be the party’s candidate for federal chancellor and his opinion rating is low. The SPD chairman, one of the partners of the “grand coalition,” allowed on 21 February that cooperation with The Left party at state level would be acceptable, a position that was approved by the SPD Party Council on 3 March. After heavy criticism from within the party and from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the other coalition party, Beck then announced that The Left remains an opponent just like other parties. Not surprisingly, the change from opposition (the long-standing party line), to cooperation, to opposition has earned Beck the predicate of inconsistency or worse. One result is talk about letting SPD members nominate the next candidate for chancellor or proposing the current Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister of Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier for the role. Recognition of Kosovo is continuing but a few states are wavering, and some have decided against it. By month’s end, 36 states offered formal recognition, including Bulgaria (20 March), Canada (18 March), Croatia (19 March), Finland (7 March), Hungary (19 March), Iceland (5 March), Japan (18 March), Korea (ROK) (28 March), Liechtenstein (25 March), Monaco (19 March), Netherlands (4 March), Norway (28 March), Slovenia (5 March), and Sweden (4 March). Action by Lithuania is pending and Indonesia (repeated on 27 March) and Vietnam (26 March) stated their opposition. Indonesia’s province of West Papua (Papua Barat) may finally become legal. It was created in February 2003 after splitting off from Papua, formerly Irian Jaya. When the Constitutional Court in 2003 declared the establishment illegitimate, the new province remained because it was already in existence. On 5 March, Indonesia’s president announced that the government would issue emergency regulations within two months to legitimize the province and the position of its Governor Abraham Atururi. A black cloud is hanging over Turkey’s governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) since 31 March when the Constitutional Court opened proceedings which could lead to the dissolution and prohibition of the party, The attorney general announced on 14 March that he is seeking the ban because of the party’s anti-secular activities, such as allowing women students to wear Muslim headgear. President, prime minister, and cabinet ministers belong to the AKP and may be banned from politics for five years if the court so decides. The attorney general also initiated proceedings on 12 March against the Democratic Society Party (DTP) declaring it an extension of the prohibited Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). viewing the world A development of continuing impact and of considerable concern not only in China is Tibet. Demonstrations started on 10 March to call attention to political and cultural domination by the Chinese. Violence and clashes with police ensued by 14 March and a number of people died. Official Beijing laid it all the doorstep of the Dalai Lama in India who urged Tibetans repeatedly to keep the protests peaceful and who also condemned China for suppressing the uprising. Internationally, the United Nations Security Council imposed weakened sanctions against Iran and Germany made a new attempt to gain a permanent seat on the Council, together with Brazil, India, and Japan. The Rio Group succeeded in keeping a Colombian-Ecuadorian border violation from blowing over, no thanks to Venezuela’s agitation. Islamic states (OIC) met and pledged to alleviate misery in Africa while the summit meeting of the Arab League was marked by high-level absences and failure to resolve the Lebanese situation. Oil countries (OPEC) decided to keep the current level of output. With the exception of the Colombian-Ecuadorian border, the situation of strife in the world’s troublespots remains: The Palestinian president suspended peace talks with Israel which approved new houses in the West Bank, a sure way of challenging Palestinians. In Iraq, government and US forces began a crackdown on Shi’ite militias, especially in Basra, which was still going on at the end of the month. The political scene was more satisfactory, except for the legal challenge to the Turkish governing AKP party and the resignation of a promising governor in New York State after a scandal became known. Bhutan held its first elections and in Iran the voting was generally orderly although the result tilted heavily toward the conservatives who are favored by the existing theocracy. French local elections set back the governing Union for a Popular Majority (UMP), partly to register dissatisfaction with presidential conduct. In Russia, the president’s favorite was elected to succeed him and in Washington the president endorsed the remaining Republican presidential candidate. The Chinese legislature approved a reorganization of the government and confirmed the new cabinet while in Pakistan the two opposition parties agreed to share power. China’s legislature approves new vice president and cabinet Government is restructured and five super ministries are created The two important sessions that were held in March were of greater significance domestically than abroad. Except for the restructuring of the government and its attendant reshuffling that was expected. Still the top leadership has not changed and was reelected for a second and final five-year term. From 3 -14 March, the advisory 11th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) held its first and annual session in Beijing. The country’s legislature, the 11th National People's Congress (NPC), met for its first session from 5-18 March. Some 2,000 members of the 11th National Committee attended and first received a report on the work of the committee, delivered by the Chairman of the preceding National Committee, Jia Qinglin (born March 1940). On the following days they attended the opening of the legislative session as non-voting delegates, discussed the work of the government, and elected new leaders, incl. 298 members of the Standing Committee of the National Committee: Chairman Jia Qinglin (reelected), 25 vice chairmen, and Secretary General Qian Yunlu. National People's Congress The highlight for the 2,967NPC deputies who attended was the report on the work of the government, presented by Premier Wen Jiabao during the opening session. He stressed the concern about the upward movement of prices and said governments at all levels must keep prices stable to allow further improvement of the economic structure, productivity, energy efficiency, and environmental protection. He touched on increasing allocations to agriculture and rural areas, food and product safety especially for exports, and introduction of a shareholding system. The issue of Taiwan was not overlooked, and Wen said the government is working for the early resumption of cross-Straits talks on the basis of the one-China principle. No major legislation was introduced except for the plan to restructure the central departments under the State Council, i.e., the cabinet. Five new, so-called “super ministries” are planned:
The new cabinet will be composed of 27 ministries and commissions, one less than the current government. A total of 15 departments are affected by the changes and the ministries of communications, personnel, and supervision are being merged into other ministries. The State Food and Drug Administration is placed under the Ministry of Health. Responsibility for studying and preparing policy for energy development will be shifted from various ministries to a new National Energy Commission. The day-to-day commission work will be handled by a national energy bureau under the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), reports People’s Daily. Leadership changes The list of names of members of the government, the Central Military Commission, and NPC officials which was approved by the Politburo and the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in October [IO 2007, p. 3430], was presented to the legislature on 12 March for its discussion and was approved on 15 March together with the restructuring plan. Hu Jintao was reelected President and Chairman of the PRC Central Military Commission (CMC) but the most significant personnel change was the elevation of Xi Jinping (born June 1953) to Vice President of the People’s Republic. In five years he may rise to lead party and state. Xi replaces Zeng Qinghong (born September 1939) who has held the position since March 2003. He is a loyal and active supporter of Hu but when he was removed from the Central Committee in October because of age it was clear that his office would be filled at the end of his term in March. Xi, trained as a chemical engineer, joined the party in 1974 and has held numerous government and party offices and rose to Secretary of the CPC Municipal Committee of Shanghai in March 2007. He is a member of the 17th Central Committee of the CPC, its Politburo and Secretariat, and President of the CPC Central Party School. Wen Jiabao was reconfirmed as Premier of the State Council on 16 March and Wang Shengjun (born October 1946) was elected President of Supreme People’s Court, succeeding Xiao Yang (born August 1938) who has held the position since 1998. On the following day when the session closed, 27 ministerial members of the State Council and five state councilors were approved At the fifth plenary meeting of the session, on 15 March, 161 members and officials of the 11th NPC Standing Committee, i.e., the permanent legislative leadership organ, were elected: Chairman Wu Bangguo (born July 1941) (reelected), 13 vice chairmen, and Secretary General Li Jianguo. Union for the Mediterranean approved Placed under EU, not run separately by France The European Council approved the revitalized “Barcelona Process: Union for the Mediterranean" at its meeting on 13-14 March in Brussels. Ostensibly, it is a compromise but politically it is seen as a damper on the prestige project of the French president when he assumes the six-month presidency of the EU in July and an indication of renewed Franco-German maneuvering. On the eve of his election in May 2007, the French president brought up the subject of a Mediterranean Union, to be led by France. On 23 October 2007, on a visit to Morocco, he publicly launched the project. Reportedly it was the brainchild of one of his special advisers and like other ideas of the president, neither fully thought out nor coordinated. (It was also thought of as an alternative to Turkish membership in the EU which the president opposes.) Needed was the approval of the European Union which since 1995 has been engaged in the well-funded “Barcelona Process,” a partnership of the 27 EU members and 12 countries around the Mediterranean Sea. After discussing the project with the German federal chancellor, not only was the idea of a new and separate organization killed but the plan for a leading French role and exclusion of EU members not bordering on the Sea, was dramatically changed, if not to say watered down. The union was renamed and combined with the EU process. No EU member will be left out and cooperation with the Near Eastern and North African states will be coordinated by two directors, one from each group, serving for two years, supported by a small secretariat. The by-play between Paris and Berlin, both currently the seats of two leaders who like and exercise power, was behind the compromise. By running the Med organization, France would have excluded Germany whose influence in the East is of concern to some in the French capital. This is also evident in the new “Entente Formidable,” a sort of Anglo-French axis that was inaugurated when the French president visited London on 26 and 27 March, and received both a royal and ecstatic welcome. updates significant events March United Nations (UN): High Commission for Human Rights, Ms. Louise Arbor (Canada), announced she would not be a candidate for a second mandate at the end of her term in June (7). Cyprus, with the active assistance and support of Germany and several other states, submitted a plan to reform the Security Council, including the addition of seven new permanent members (20). Some 1,200 participants, including delegates from 162 countries, opened the Bangkok Climate Change Talks 2008 within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) (31). Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): The 16th Summit meeting was held in Moscow and devoted to discussions of economic development, migration policy, and modernization of the transportation system (21). European Union (EU): Heads of State and Government of members met as European Council in Brussels to discuss the economy, climate change, energy, financial stability, launch the new cycle of the Lisbon Strategy for Growth and Jobs, and approved the principle of a Union for the Mediterranean (13-14). Bulgaria became the 5th member state to ratify the Treaty of Lisbon (21). League of Arab States (LAS): The 30th Summit meeting was held in Damascus but by the absence of the top leaders of half of the member states, incl. Egypt and Saudi Arabia, strong displeasure was displayed with the host’s perceived interference in the Lebanese presidential election (29-30). Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC): At the 11th Summit meeting in Dakar, the OIC charter was amended to restrict admission of new members to those with a majority of Muslims, Islamophobia was discussed, opposition to terrorism was declared but resistance against occupation excluded, pledges made that "special attention should be given to Africa, the region most plagued by poverty, disease, illiteracy, famine and debt," and a trade preferential system approved (13-14). Rio Group: Summit meeting was held in Santo Domingo focusing on the diplomatic crisis between Colombia and Ecuador over the incursion on 1 March and the killing of a FARC leader inside the Ecuadorian border. Presidents of the two countries agreed to resolve the issue (7). Belarus: The US ambassador was expelled because of sanctions imposed on a state enterprise (7). Bolivia: The National Electoral Court (CNE) postponed referendum on the draft constitution scheduled for 4 May because of insufficient time for preparations (8). Burma: Military government rejected UN proposal to send observers to monitor the referendum in May on the draft constitution (8). Colombia: President announced that he will ask the International Criminal Court (ICC) to charge the president of Venezuela with genocide (4). Croatia: The fishing ban on foreign boats inside its extended Adriatic territorial waters was lifted (13). Cuba: Foreign ministers of Cuba and Mexico met in Havana and declared return to normalized relations (14). Ecuador: Government cut diplomatic relations with Colombia (3). France: On the occasion of the visit of the French president to London, renewed Anglo-French fraternity and an “Entente formidable” was proclaimed (27). Greece: The admission of Macedonia to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was rejected because the issue of the name of Macedonia has not been resolved (6). Iraq: Reconciliation conference was held to achieve security, reconstruction, and complete sovereignty (18-19). Korea (DPRK): Several South Korean officials were expelled from Kaesong in protest against remarks by the new South Korean defense minister (27). Nicaragua: Government cut diplomatic relations with Colombia (3). Pakistan: Government released the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court from house arrest (24). Russia: Chita Oblast' and Aginsk Buryat Autonomous Okrug merged and formed Zabaykalskiy Kray or Trans-Baikal Territory (1). Government ended sanctions against Abkhazia (6). The first Deputy Prime Minister declared that Russia has no claims to Antarctica (11). The State Duma warned Georgia against joining NATO and threatened to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia (21). United Kingdom: Foreign secretary announced changes to the diplomatic service and moving of staff from Europe to other parts of the world, especially to Asia and the Near East (4). House of Commons defeated a motion to subject the Treaty of Lisbon to a popular referendum (5). Venezuela: Government cut diplomatic relations with Colombia (3). United States of America: President declared his support for the admission of Georgia to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) (19). He waived restrictions on military aid to Pakistan (25). new government leaders Belgium: Yves Leterme, Prime Minister, on 20 March. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Dr. Haris Silajdzik, Chairman of the Presidency, on 6 March. China: Hu Jintao, President, on 15 March (2nd term). Wen Jiabao, Premier of the State Council, on 16 March (2nd term). Comoros-Anjouan: Lailizamane Abdou Cheik, Interim President, on 31 March. Libya: Miftah Muhammad Kuayba, Secretary of the General People’s Council (i.e., head of government) on 3 March. Malaysia: Abdullah bin Haji Hamad Badawi, Prime Minister, on 10 March (2nd term). Moldova: Ms. Zinaida Petrovna Greceanii, Prime Minister, on 31 March. Pakistan: Yousaf Raza Gilani, Prime Minister, on 25 March. Russia: Dmitriy Anatol’yevich Medvedev, elected President on 2 March.
peace and stability The European Union (EU) is concerned that climate changes causing water and food shortages in Inner Asia may lead to regional conflicts. The High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) briefed the Council on security aspects of changes on 13-14 March. The Taliban in Afghanistan is becoming more active in the previously calm northwest and has intruded into the Logar and Wardak provinces, next to the capital, the UN Secretary General reported on 11 March. Last year there were some 6,700 incidents (5,100 in 2006) and about 8,000 casualties. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh led to an armed clash between forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan on the line of contact on 4 March in which reportedly 16 soldiers were killed. The border area inside Bangladesh and facing India is home to radical forces, the Inspector General of India’s Border Security Force in the sector informed his Bangladesh colleague and handed him a list of 141 camps. Among those using the sanctuary are the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Front (HNLF), National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT), National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN), People’s Liberation Army of Manipur (PLA), United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), and the United National Liberation Front of Manipur (UNLF). Police in Bhutan report the presence of Bhutanese Maoists who are supported by fellow militants in neighboring India and Bhutan, BBC announced on 12 March. The presidents of Chad and Sudan signed a peace accord on 13 March and Chad lifted the state of emergency three days later but neither peace nor stability have been restored. The National Alliance for Resistance (Alliance Nationale pour la Résistance, ANR) announced that the agreement would not concern them and they would continue to seek the removal of the country’s president. Likewise, the armed Rally of Forces for Change (RFC) will continue its attack and has singled out the Logone Oriental Department where oil is extracted. Focusing attention on China’s repression of Tibetans, their culture, and religion was the purpose of demonstrations started on 10 March. The Dalai Lama deplored the violence and the setting of fires that began in Lhasa and occurred in other places and on 16 March he condemned China for waging “cultural genocide” and the arrest and killing of protesters. The government claimed that sabotage was organized by the Tibetan leadership in exile and warned the European Union (EU) and other governments not to interfere in what Beijing considers “internal affairs.” More than 140 people were killed by police, more than the 22 reported by the government, and several hundred were injured, mainly in Tibet’s capital. Arrests number in the hundreds and in a number of Buddhist monasteries the monks are restricted in their movements. Colombia’s incursion into Ecuador on 1 March and the killing of a leader of the insurgent Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) led not only to a rupture of relations between the two countries and angry exchanges but also drew Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela into the spat. The director of Colombia’s National Police said on 3 March that they found evidence of close contacts between Venezuela and FARC. At the summit meeting of the Rio Group, the presidents of Colombia and Ecuador agreed to resolve the matter. Federal troops of the Comoros supported by units of members of the African Union (AU) [p. 3513] landed on Anjouan island on 25 March and reestablished control. The presidents of Cyprus and the so-called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) met on 21 March and agreed to resume talks on the division of the island. India’s prime minister warned on 6 March that Sikh militants outside the country are trying to revive militancy in the Punjab, reported BBC. A the end of the summit meeting of the Arab League on 30 March, Iran was again urged to end its occupation of the islands of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tumb [IO 2005, no. 425-398 November 2005] in the Gulf and restore them to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). On 2 March, the Iranian foreign minister had rejected a similar demand from the Gulf Cooperation Council. The UN Security Council approved Resolution 1803 on 3 March tightening restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities. Iraq’s prime minister on 26 March gave the Shi’a Mahdi Army [p. 3514] an ultimatum to turn in its weapons within 72 hours. Japan’s intent to present the issue of oil exploration in the East China Sea to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) was condemned by China on 13 March which is proposing further development of positive bilateral ties. Japan plans to push cooperation with the new president of Russia and hopes for work on a peace treaty, a Japanese diplomat said on 19 March, as reported by Novosti. Kenya’s army launched an attack on 10 March against the clan-based Sabaot Land Defense Forces (SLDF) in the Rift Valley Province. Some 500 people have died since 2005 in the continuing land dispute in the Mount Elgon District. The NATO Kosovo Force (KFOR) assumed control of Mitrovica on 18 March following pro-Serbian violent demonstrations. Palestine’s government canceled talks with Israel on 1 March following heavy fighting in the Gaza Strip. The Movement of Islamic Resistance (HAMAS) declared on 12 March that to begin a ceasefire Israel must end all raids on Palestinian territory and reopen the border to Gaza. HAMAS and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) signed an agreement of reconciliation on 23 March which was sponsored by Yemen. Peru’s president accused Venezuela on 22 March of financing militants, especially through anti-poverty centers. Venezuela has rejected the charge. Timor extended the state of emergency for one month on 23 March. Turkey’s prime minister on 2 March urged the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to lay down its arms. The government of Uganda and Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) agreed on 2 March to extend the truce until 28 March [p. 3514]. Representatives of POLISARIO of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) and the Moroccan government held a 4th round of talks on 17 and 18 March on Long Island NY under United Nations (UN) auspices without reaching an agreement on the future status of the disputed territory. bio briefs info/literature Surveys and Documentation: Government and Leader Changes Country Notes 2008 World: Threats in 2008 (Issue contains 36 pages.) |