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June 2008 Vol. 27 No. 456 The 192-member United Nations (UN) General Assembly elected 15 members of the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) for a three-year term starting on 19 June. Nine countries were reelected for a second term of the 47-member body: Brazil, France, Gabon, Ghana, Japan, Korea (ROK), Pakistan, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. The six new members are: Argentina, Bahrain, Burkina Faso, Chile, Slovakia, and Zambia. Unsuccessful candidates included Serbia, Spain, Sri Lanka, and Timor. The Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) was created on 23 May when the heads of state of 12 Latin American countries signed a treaty in Brasilia. UNASUR includes all entities of the South American continent, except French Guiana, an overseas department of France. Admission of Turkey into the European Union (EU) will face a new hurdle--in France. On 30 May, the National Assembly approved a constitutional amendment subjecting any new EU applicant whose population is greater than five percent of the total EU population—about 495.5 million-- to a popular referendum. Turkey’s population of an estimated 71.2 million would exceed the threshold of 24.8 million almost three times. Bolivia’s Evo Morales, the country’s first indigenous president, agreed on 9 May to face a vote of confidence by popular referendum. Three days later, he scheduled the initiative for 10 August. He is being challenged by the governors of the wealthy eastern departments who launched a campaign for autonomy. Referenda to approve autonomy, measures which the president denounced as illegal and threatening the stability of the nation, were approved in the departments of Beni, Pando, Santa Cruz, and Taija. A referendum on a constitution tailored to the needs of Burma’s military junta was held on 10 May in the middle of devastation caused earlier by cyclone Nargis. Additional voting was scheduled on 24 May but on 29 May, the junta announced that 98.12 percent of eligible voters took part and approved the draft by 92.48 percent and ”enacted” it. Indonesia will hold elections for the 550-seat House of Representatives on 8 or 9 April 2009. The General Election Commission (KPU) announced on 31 May that 51 parties have passed verification tests, including the 16 currently holding parliamentary seats. Another 11 parties failed the tests and two parties did not register, reports The Jakarta Post. Nepal became a federal democratic republic on 28 May, ending 238 years of royal rule. The newly elected Constituent Assembly opened on 27 May with 575 of 601 members present. The king was given 15 days to vacate the royal palace but later was provided with a smaller residence. The assembly, an interim body, is charged with drafting a constitution during the next two years. Prodded by the European Union (EU), the Grand National Assembly of Turkey amended the controversial article 301 of the Penal Code on 30 April which made insulting “Turkishness” a crime. Critics point out that changing the description of the offense to “insulting the Turkish nation” amounts to a cosmetic alteration and it remains unclear who is included in the nation and who is not. In a speech by the prime minister in Diyabakir or 27 May, the government announced a massive initiative for southeastern Turkey. It is designed to improve the infrastructure and irrigation in the region and equally significant to improve social development thus weakening or removing one of the incentives for the Kurdish minority to continue its armed fight for autonomy or independence. Major projects include dams and electric power plants, making more land suitable for agriculture, protect- ing more cultural and historical sites, building more classrooms, and setting up a single-channel which broadcast solely in Kurdish. Repeating last year’s break with tradition, the British prime minister again revealed his government’s legislative program ahead of the Queen’s Speech from the Throne this November. Major initiatives include ratification of additional Geneva Conventions and UN Personnel bill, reform of the House of Lords, marine and coastal access, tests for immigrants, protection of depositors, and homes for rent to low-income families and help for first-time buyers. Morgan Tsvangirai of Zimbabwe’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) received 47.9 percent of votes cast in the presidential election of 29 March, the Electoral Commission announced on 2 May, nearly six weeks later. Incumbent Robert Mugabe followed with 43.2 percent and former Minister of Finance Simba Makoni 8.3 percent. The MDC challenged its candidate’s result, saying that he had gained 50.3 percent and that the runoff scheduled for 27 June was not necessary. During the following weeks it became clear that the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) with the help of army and police would make sure that Mugabe was reelected and that Tsvangirai would be harassed, threatened into withdrawing, even be murdered. viewing the world During the first two weeks of May the catastrophic effects of Cyclone Nargis which hit Burma on 2 May and the Wenchuan earthquake occurring on 12 May in China’s Sichuan Province were the world’s uppermost humanitarian concerns. In Burma at least 90,000 people died and a further 56,000 people are still missing. China reported 68,858 confirmed dead, 18,618 missing, and about 4.8 million people homeless. Regrettably, both events soon took on political overtones. Criticism was raised about the delay by the reluctant Burmese military junta to accept international aid. It was followed by condemnation when it became clear that the junta was more interested in going through with its sham constitutional referendum on 10 May than organizing relief for the millions of victims. China, on the other hand, was universally praised for its quick and effective mobilization of help to the survivors of the tremors. But the parents of the thousands of children who were killed while at school began protesting the shoddy construction of school buildings on 27 May and soon government and party reacted not only defensively but denounced the demonstrators and fought them with police. For the second year in a row, the annual Global Peace Index was released on 20 May. The 20 of 140 most peaceful countries—no surprise there—are Iceland, Denmark, Norway, New Zealand, Japan, Ireland, Portugal, Finland, Luxembourg, Austria, Canada, Switzerland, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Chile, and Slovakia. The listings at the bottom include Russia (131), Lebanon (132), Korea (DPRK) (133), Central African Republic (134), Chad (135), Israel (136), Afghanistan (137), Sudan (138), Somalia (139), and Iraq (140). France (36) and the United Kingdom (49) have a high state of peace, finds the index while China (67), Brazil (90), Mexico (93), the United States of America (97), and India (107) rank from medium to low. The index was compiled by the Institute for Economics and Peace in St. Leonards NSW, Australia, together with the Economist Intelligence Unit in London and combines 24 domestic and external factors which are rated from one to six and converted into a composite score. The factors are categorized by measures of ongoing domestic and international conflict (incl. casualties), societal safety and security (incl. displaced persons, homicides, violent crime level, prison population, and number of law enforcement officers), and militarization (incl. arms outlays, military strength, arms trade, deployments, and heavy weapons). France is finding that acceptance of its current pet project, the Union for the Mediterranean, is difficult. Libya denounced it and is now being asked to reconsider. Tensions in the Middle East are complicating matters and so is Arab rejection of any Israeli participation. Otherwise there was one positive development, the announcement on 21 May that Israel and Syria were talking about peace. On the other side was the speech by the US president on 15 May in Jerusalem in which he assailed appeasement with an indirect dig at the Democratic frontrunner, street battles in Lebanon by Hezbollah, and a report from the UN that Iran was not cooperating on answering questions about its nuclear program. An early alert is warranted. The king of Saudi Arabia as well as the crown prince are both in their eighties and the latter reportedly underwent regular medical tests in Geneva, giving rise to concerns about his health. Succession will be decided by a family or “allegiance council” of royal sons and grandsons, one of whom may be chosen king. In South Africa, as a direct consequence of harassment of anti-government voters and shortage of food in neighboring Zimbabwe, refugees became targets of anti-foreigner violence which broke out on 19 May. It appears that British former Prime Minister Tony Blair will not become the first president of the European Union (EU) after doubts by both France and Germany and his failure to include the United Kingdom in the EU free-movement protocol and adopting the common Euro currency. The fortunes of the returning Italian Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi, are more promising. With the support of his parliamentary majority, a bill on immigration and internal security which is nearing approval also includes temporary immunity from current prosecution. If passed, the prime minister who is a defendant in a bribery trial would gain time to introduce another bill offering immunity to high officials while serving in government. Haiti remains without a new government leader after the legislature rejected two candidates for the office of prime minister. In the US, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) after declaring advanced primaries in Florida and Michigan in January illegal, changed its mind and on 31 May allowed half of the vote of state delegates. A constitutional commission in Turkmenistan is expected to begin drafting a new charter on 1 July. In the meantime, the legislature will discuss and submit proposals. The original constitution of 18 May 1992 has been amended four times, shifting power to the presidency and undermining the legislature’s role. Some high-sea robbery has political motives Maritime piracy remains a threat to shipping and even small pleasure boats can be a target. Attacks against commercial ships, mainly tankers and container ships, at sea, in port, and while loading and unloading are at high risk in Nigerian and Somali waters, reports the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) and the US Navy (ONI). Major motive of course is greed—proceeds from the sale of stolen goods, ransom money, and cash from the ship’s till as well as from crew and passengers. In same cases, seizure of ships and cargo is politically motivated—another way of obtaining funds for causes of various groups—or to make a political statement and hurt an opponent, as practiced by the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), which is waging warfare against the Nigerian federal government by way of attacking oil fields and tankers. In 2007, there were 263 reported attacks on ships worldwide, an increase of 10 percent over 2006 (239), reports IMB of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). It is lower than the second highest number of 445 in 2003 since the IMB Piracy Reporting Center in Kuala Lumpur started compiling statistics in 1991 (The highest number was 469 incidents in 2000): 2007 2006 Africa* 120 61 Americas 21 29 East/Southeast Asia** 80 88 South Asia 30 53 Other areas 12 8 Total 263 239 *Attacks off Nigeria almost quadrupled compared with last year of 12, making Nigerian waters the most dangerous in Africa for attacks on shipping. **Attacks in the Malacca Straits dropped from 76 to 62. 43 of these incidents were in Indonesian waters. Total incidents include 187 actual attacks and 76 attempts of which 111 occurred at sea. Five crew members were killed and three remain missing. The majority of targets are cargo and container ships and tankers (210) but 8 yachts and one passenger ship were also attacked. Waters and ports can become high-risk areas at short notice but currently mariners are warned to be extra cautious when they transit these areas: Southeast Asia and Indian Sub-Continent Bangladesh, Chittagong anchorages; Indonesia Malacca Straits Philippines, Manila Singapore Straits Africa and Near East Arabian Sea Gulf of Aden and Red Sea Kenya, Mombassa Nigeria, Lagos Somali waters Tanzania, Dar es Salaam Americas Brazil, Santos Peru, Callao Disturbing is not only the rising violence and the use of modern weapons—in some areas, the robbers still wield long knives—but the widening range. Especially in Nigeria and Somalia, vessels are attacked further out at sea. In Somali waters the robbers held 154 crew hostages in 11 hijackings in 2007. IMB notes that in Indonesia, where authorities have been extremely vigilant, many of the attacks currently involve lower-level crimes, including theft. Attacks have fallen to 43 reported incidents last year, a steady, year-on-year decline from 121 in 2003. Similarly, attacks in the Malacca Straits, previously a hotspot, have continued to drop since 2004, as well as in Malaysia and the Singapore Straits. In Bangladesh local authorities succeeded in reducing the number of incidents to 15, well below 47 recorded the previous year.
Image and leadership problems beset Socialist parties in Europe After several years of governing effectively and strongly, social democratic parties in Western Europe have lost to the conservatives, except in Spain. In 2005, the red-green coalition in Germany ended and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) which had saved enough electoral strength had to form a government with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) under a CDU chancellor. During the French presidential elections, victorious Nicolas Sarkozy of the conservative Union for Popular Majority (UMP) not only dazzled voters with his modern outlook but was helped by several missteps of the rival candidate of the Socialist Party (PS) which placed her at odds with the left wing of her party. In Italy, earlier this year, the new center-left Democratic Party (PD) coalition was beaten at the polls by the center-right People of Freedom (PdL) which gained additional seats thanks to the proportional representation system and coalition with the regionalist and populist Northern League (LN). In Austria, Federal Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer, leader of the Austrian Social Democratic Party (SPÖ), is being criticized by voters and within the party for lacking direction and determination. Since he is leading a coalition government with the conservatives, he has also become the whipping boy for the entire administration. Nevertheless, the SPÖ will select a new party head in the fall while Gusenbauer will stay at the head of the government. In France, progressive parties are exploring whether to form a unified left. The Socialist Party is occupied by the rivalry of several candidates for the party position of First Secretary, held by François Hollande. At the head of the candidates but by no means are sure winner is Ms. Ségolène Royal, the party’s nominee in the last presidential election. Another serious contender is the Mayor of Paris, Bertrand Delanoë. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, currently Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as former Prime Laurent Fabius are trying to stay above the “fist fight,” his words, which is weakening the party. The decision will be made at the party congress on 14-16 November in Reims. Sometimes, an election is determined not so much by the presence of a convincing leader but by the absence of one on the opposing side. In Germany and in the United Kingdom, unhappiness with leaders is not so much over program or substance but with their image of weak leadership. Kurt Beck is Chairman of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and Premier of Rhineland-Palatinate where he also chairs the state’s SPD. Unlike the former party head, he is neither part of the federal coalition government nor a member of the Bundestag or federal parliament. But that is not his problem. Voters and party members became concerned when he first declared that cooperation with the SPD’s new rival, The Left party, at state level would be acceptable and later sort of repudiated that view. There is considerable popular support for a Left-SPD coalition after the 2009 federal elections but the SPD leadership has rejected it and Beck tries to defend the decision—at least until 29 May. At a local party meeting he said he would not have a problem with revisiting this position, appearing to agree to a change again. Two days later, at the SPD Future Congress in Nürnberg he categorically excluded common cause with The Left and offered close cooperation with the liberal German Free Democrats (FDP) and Alliance 90/The Greens. The FDP ignored the offer. Even in the UK the Labour Party is running into serious problems—local election losses--and Prime Minister Gordon Brown is paying the price. Once hailed as a worthy successor of Tony Blair, party friends and voters now criticize how he conducts business and also blame him for poor economic decisions which he has denied. But the seed has been planted and not only does the leader of the Conservative Party speak of “the end of New Labour,” but a former Labour deputy prime minister on 31 May hailed Foreign Secretary David Miliband as a future leader while insisting that Brown was “the best man” to steer the country’s economy. Who will head Egypt? The two-year extension of a state of emergency in May serves not only to maintain the country’s authoritarian regime but shows that the government has serious concerns about the current wave of public frustration and underlying economic and social tensions. The recent call to the army to bake bread when there was sudden shortage also points to where the power lies—in the military and security establishment. The term of President (Air Marshal) Mohammed Hosni Said Mubarak will end in 2011. Given his advanced age, he just turned 80 on 4 May, and his health problems, it is doubtful that he will stand for reelection. In the absence of a vice president or a publicly-identified successor there is only speculation. Mubarak has said earlier that he is not interested in starting a political dynasty which of course is not the final word on the subject. His older son is a businessman and not interested in politics. The younger one, Gamal Mubarak (born 1963), continues to be talked about as his father’s successor but support is far from unanimous. Serving as Chairman of the Future Generation Foundation (FGF), a public interest advocacy group, he is also Secretary General of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). A considerable number of voters support the banned Muslim Brotherhood but it too lacks wide public support and besides that, most of its leaders are currently on trial or in jail. Like Pakistan until a short time ago, military and police serve in numerous public functions, such as administration of the 26 governates, and their influence reaches far, even into the selection of the next head of state. Bio Briefs [see printed issue] updates significant events May United Nations: Germany declared its recognition of rulings by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) (1). The General Assembly elected 15 countries to serve a three-year term on the 47-member UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) (21). Ukraine joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) (16). African Union (AU): A summit meeting of 12 heads of state was held on AU government and the situation in Zimbabwe at Ngurdoto Mountain Lodge, Arusha, Tanzania (22-23). Americas: Heads of state of 12 Latin American countries signed a treaty in Brasilia creating the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) (23). Arctic: Five nations bordering the Arctic held a meeting in Greenland and agreed to resolve any claims under international law (27-29). Commonwealth: Pakistan was readmitted as member (12). Europe: 18 presidents of southeastern states held their 15th meeting on integration at Lake Ohrid, Macedonia (3-4). Heads of state and government of the South East European Cooperation Process (SEECP) held their 11th summit meeting on regional cooperation at Pomorje, Bulgaria (20). European Union (EU): Commission approved introduction of Euro currency in Slovakia on 1 January 2009 (7). Slovakia’s president signed bill approving the Treaty of Lisbon (12). Czech Republic announced recognition of Kosovo (21). Germany ratified the Treaty of Lisbon (23). Liberia announced its recognition of Kosovo (31). International: In its annual report, Amnesty International accused the US of disregarding international law and said China is placing economic interests above regard for human rights (28). Representatives of 111 nations at a Dublin conference agreed on a treaty banning the use of cluster bombs (28). Organization of Petroleum Export Countries (OPEC): Indonesia withdrew from the organization (28).
Bolivia: President decreed nationalization of three foreign-owned natural gas companies and a telecommunications enterprise: Andina (Repsol YPF, Spain), Chaco (BP, UK), Transredes (Ashmore Energy International/Royal Dutch Shell), CLHB (Oiltanking GmbH, Germany, and Graña y Montero Group, Peru), and Entel (Telecom Italia Spa) (1). Referendum held in Santa Cruz Department on autonomy was approved by 85 percent of votes cast but termed illegal by the national government (3). President announced referendum about his governance will be held on 10 August (13). Burma: Military rulers announced that 93 percent of eligible voters approved the proposed constitution (26) and enacted it three days later (29). Canada: Government apologized to native Americans for causing suffering by forcibly placing their children in Christian schools (16). China: President and the leader of the governing party of Taiwan met in Beijing to discuss cross-strait transport links (28). Georgia: Government notified Russia of its withdrawal from a bilateral air defense cooperation treaty (5). Germany: Constitutional Court ruled that German participation in NATO reconnaissance flight in March 2003 was unconstitutional and had required prior parliamentary approval (7). Iraq: At an international donor conference in Sweden, Iraq asked its neighbors to cancel its debts (29). Israel: In a speech in Wales, former US President Jimmy Carter called the Israeli blockade of Gaza today’s greatest violation of human rights and said the state possesses at least 150 nuclear weapons (26). Japan: The Diet approved a bill to allow use of space programs for defense (21). Nepal: Constituent Assembly proclaimed a republic and abolished monarchy (28). Qatar: The Consultative Council approved a new electoral law which provides for 30 elected members of the 45-seat body (19). Russia: President signed law limiting foreign investment by requiring approval in 42 strategic sectors (5). Tanzania: The deputy chief minister of Zanzibar ruled out coalition government for the island (4). The opposition announced it would impeach the island’s president for violating the constitution (23). Turkey: The prime minister announced a massive economic and social development program for the mainly Kurdish southeastern part of the country (27). United Kingdom (UK): Prime minister announced fall government program (14). United States of America: President ordered freezing of assets of state-owned firms in Burma (1). President announced extension of freeze on Syrian assets for another year and ban on export of selected goods to Syria (7). Treasury announced economic sanctions on three Belarusian companies (15). The government released a scientific assessment on the effects of global change of climate on the US (29). President designated four foreign individuals (Afghanistan, Mexico, Turkey, and Venezuela) and three foreign organizations as “narcotics kingpins” (30). Defense secretary in a speech in Singapore warned China against bullying neighbors over natural resources (31). Venezuela: President decreed nationalization of SIDOR (Techint of Argentina) steel enterprise (1). new government leaders Guinea: Ahmed Tidiané Souaré, Prime Minister, on 23 May. Ireland: Brian Cowen, Prime Minister, on 7 May. Ireland: Ms. Mary Coughlan, Deputy Prime Minister, on 7 May. Italy: Silvio Berlusconi, Prime Minister, on 8 May. Kuwait: Sheikh Nasir Muhammad al-Ahmad al-Sabah, Prime Minister, on 20 May. Lebanon: General Michel Suleiman, President, on 25 May. Lebanon: Fouad Siniora, Prime Minister, on 28 May. Mauritania: Ould Ahmed Wagfh, Prime Minister, on 7 May. Montenegro: Filip Vujanovic, President, on 20 May. Russia: Dmitriy Anatol’yevich Medvedev, President on 7 May. Russia: Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, Prime Minister, on 8 May. Taiwan: Ma Ying-jeou, President, 20 May. Taiwan: Vincent Siew, Vice President, on 20 May. Taiwan: Liu Chao-shiuan, President, Executive Yüan, on 20 May.
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Surveys and Documentation: Peace and Stability: March-April 2008 World: Troublespots Status Documentation: Installation Address of Russian President. (Issue contains 22 pages.) |