August 2008 Vol. 27  No. 458

The planned Union Government for the African Union (AU) remains an unresolved project. A major obstacle is the unwillingness of member states to give up authorities granted by their own constitutions. Leaders held a summit meeting on 30 June-1 July in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, which ended without agreement except to talk further at an extraordinary summit in January 2009 in Addis Ababa.

The heads of state and government of the 43 members of the Mediterranean Union (UM) launched the new international organization at a summit meeting on 13 July in Paris. An extension of the Barcelona Process of the European Union (EU) it includes 27 EU member states, 11 states of the Near East and North Africa, 4 Balkan states, and Monaco. Seen at first as a French pet project it is an extension of the EU into the Mediterranean basin and a way to engage nations in EU development projects without offering a more formal affiliation. Libya, although holding observer status, says the UM is threatening African and Arab unity. It is supported by Senegal’s president who deplores the potential alienation of North Africa from the sub-Saharan countries.

To nobody’s surprise, the grand coalition between the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Socialist Party of Austria (SPÖ) ended on 7 July when the ÖVP said “that’s enough.” Earlier there was a weak attempt to resolve the health reform but for months both parties had been waiting for the right moment to call for new elections [IO, p. 3507]. The situation was not helped by some unhappiness with the perceived lack of leadership by Federal Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer (SPÖ) and efforts by his Minister of Transportation Werner Faymann to assume leadership of the Socialists and to rise to chancellor. After the parties agreed on a date for the new elections, the National Council on 9 July approved new elections for 28 September.

Another promise by a strongman is broken. On 15 August 2007, Commodore Frank Baininmarama of Fiji pledged at the meeting of Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) that elections would be held in March 2009. On 30 May, the government confirmed the day but on 18 July the military ruler said electoral reforms needed more time and that he should not be held to the date and that “no date is set for an election.”

The French president is continuing with his agenda of reforms. After making sure that the constitution is in accordance with law of the European Union (EU), approving constitutional reforms of institutions, and introducing reforms of education, the government will tackle the country’s administrative divisions and institutions in 2009. In an interview published by Le Monde on 17 July, Nicolas Sarkozy broached the subject by suggesting that next year there should be reflection and debate about the future of nearly 40,000 units ranging regions, to departments, to communities.

At a meeting with ambassadors in Moscow on 15 July, the Russian president presented his Foreign Policy Concept. The strategy expressed in the document is similar to that of his predecessor issued in 2000, albeit more moderate in tone. The five sections deal with general policy objectives, an analysis of current policy, global priorities, regional priorities, and institutional functions. Besides suggesting a new balance in world affairs, the concept for the first time also includes the prime minister in carrying out foreign policy initiatives.

The National Assembly of Sudan approved a new electoral law on 7 July. It introduces proportional representation and sets aside 25 percent of parliamentary seats for women. Sixty percent of seats will be filled by direct voting and 40 percent by the winners of party lists. Again women will be guaranteed 25 percent of the seats and parties 15 percent.

Turkey’s Constitutional Court failed to ban the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) and 71 of its leading politicians, lacking the required majority of seven votes, it was announced on 30 July. Accused of violating the constitutional principle of secularism, the party was acquitted but also criticized for some of its measures, especially lifting the ban of headscarves by students of state universities. Six judges voted for the ban, four for a fine, and one dismissed the charges.

World energy use to rise but slightly less than predicted last year

Energy is above all an economic subject but one with significant political implications. One need only revisit the energy shock of 1973 when the Arab oil embargo was imposed or the strategic considerations mentioned in connection with the 1990 Gulf War and the invasion of Iraq. Next to food and water, energy is of critical political importance--for supplier as well as for consumer. We have not reached the point of imminent resource wars, a subject that is rising to the foreground in public discussion, but related issues of conservation, climate change, and global warming are sharpening international debates.

The demand for world energy keeps going up. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy projects* that world energy consumption is increasing by 50 percent from 2005 to 2030 (57 percent from 2004 to 2030). The largest projected increase in energy demand is for the region outside the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) or the industrial countries. Here energy consumption is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.2 percent from 2005 through 2030, compared to 2.3 percent in the OECD region. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 462 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2005 to 563 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and to 695 quadrillion Btu in 2030.

Estimates for petroleum demand will depend on basing them on the current price for oil or future high prices. In nominal terms, world oil prices decline from current high levels to around $70 per barrel in 2015, then rise steadily to $113 per barrel in 2030 (Based on a high price assumption, the price of the barrel would rise to $186 in 2030). Demand is projected to increase from 83.6 million barrels a day in 2005 to 112.5 million barrels a day in 2030. The United States, China, and other nations of developing Asia are expected again to account for the bulk in the growth in demand.

The demand for natural gas is increased by rising world oil prices. Over the 2005-2030 forecast period, consumption of natural gas is projected to increase from 104 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2005 to 158 trillion cubic feet in 2030. Natural gas is used to displace the use of liquids in the industrial and electric power sectors in many parts of the world. It is both a more efficient fuel for electric power generation and less carbon intensive than other fossil fuels, and as a result it is an attractive energy source for the world’s power generation. It is the world’s fastest-growing energy source for electricity generation in the current projection.

In the absence of effective international and national steps to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, world coal consumption is growing and is expected to increase its share of world energy consumption. Coal use worldwide will increase from 123 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 202 quadrillion Btu in 2030.

Electricity use is forecast to grow from 17.3 trillion kilowatthours in 2005 and nearly doubling to 24.4 trillion kilowatthours in 2030. The strongest growth in net electricity consumption is projected for the non-OECD region, averaging 4.0 percent a year, and 1.3 percent a year in OECD nations over the projection period.

Nuclear electricity generation is projected to increase from 2.6 trillion kilowatthours in 2005 to 3.8 trillion kilowatthours in 2030.  The largest increase in installed nuclear generating capacity is projected for non-OECD Asia. Of the 68 gigawatts of additional installed nuclear generating capacity projected for non-OECD Asia between 2005 and 2030, 45 gigawatts is projected for China and 17 gigawatts for India. Russia also is expected to add substantial nuclear generating capacity over the mid-term projection, increasing capacity by 18 gigawatts.

Carbon dioxide emissions are rising steadily from 28.1 billion metric tons in 2005 to 42.3 billion metric tons in 2030. In 2005, non-OECD emissions of carbon dioxide were 7 percent higher than OECD emissions. In 2030, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries are projected to exceed those from the OECD countries by 72 percent.

Carbon dioxide is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere caused by humans. In recent years, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have been rising at a rate of about 0.5 percent a year, and because anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide result primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels for energy, world energy use has emerged at the center of the climate change debate.

*International Energy Outlook 2008, Energy Information Administration. Washington DC: US Department of Energy, June 2008.

France approves constitutional reforms

 The 28^th revision of the 1958 Constitution of France became law on 23 July. The Congress of Parliament made up of 576 members of the National Assembly and 330 members of the Senate approved the constitutional law by a vote of 539 to 357, one vote more than required. That vote was cast by Jack Lang a member of the National Assembly and the Socialist Party (PS) but also a member of the Constitutional Commission. Besides dealing with regional languages and holding a referendum on the admission of new members of the European Union (EU), the authority of the president is strengthened, the role of parliament is clarified, and citizens will have the right to submit initiatives by referendum.

Indian UPA government wins vote of confidence

 India’s United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition government received the confidence of the majority of Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament on 22 July. The vote was sought by the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) which had parted company with the UPA over the issue of the civil nuclear agreement with the United States of America: 275 against 256 and 10 abstentions. In the twelve days before the voting, both sides made extraordinary efforts to prevail, later leading to charges of bribery and buying votes. Minor parties were courted, ailing parliamentarians were driven or flown to the capital to cast their votes, and individual loyalties changed. There was considerable political fallout from fateful session:

·         The Speaker set up a seven-member committee to look into claims by three BJP members that they were bribed to stay away.

·         Speaker Somnath Chatterjee, a Communist member for 40 years, was expelled from the CPI-M on 23 July for failing to give up his post before the vote.

·         The CPI-M formed an opposition alliance on 23 July of ten former allies of the UPA, six regional parties and four left wing parties, incl. the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

·         Eight BJP members of parliament who had switched sides in the vote were expelled from the party on 23 July.

Bio Briefs [see printed issue] 

new government leaders

Comoros-Anjou: Moussa Toybou, President, on 7 July.

Equatorial Guinea: Ignacio Milam Tang , Prime Minister, on 8 July.

Grenada: Tillman Thomas, Prime Minister, on 9 July.

Haiti: Ms. Michèle Pierre-Louis, Prime Minister, on 31 July.

Macedonia: Nikola Gruevski, Prime Minister, on 26 July.

Mauritania: Yahya Ould Ahmed el Waghef, Prime Minister, reappointed on 3 July.

Nepal: Ram Baran Yadav, President, on 23 July.

Nepal: Paramananda Jha, Vice President, on 23 July.

Serbia: Mirko Cvetkovic, Prime Minister, on 8 July.

elections

Cambodia—National Assembly: Ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), 90 of 123 seats, on 27 July. Observers of the European Union said on 29 July that the election fell short of international standards, that the ruling party made widespread use of government resources and dominated media coverage to the disadvantage of the other parties. While technically the voting was running well, the National Election Commission was accused of acting as “a tool for the CPP,” a charge the NEC rejected.

Grenada—House of Representatives: Opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), 11 of 15 seats, on 8 July.

deaths [see printed issue]

Ukraine celebrates new holiday: In remembrance of the Grand Prince of Kyiv, St. Prince Volodimir (958-1015), who converted to Christianity in 988, the president on 25 July decreed the annual observance of the Day of Baptism of Kyiv Rus every 28 July.

China-US institute opened: The Kissinger Institute on China and the United States of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington DC was inaugurated on 29 July. It was formed “to provide policymakers and the policy community with relevant insights into the many factors that underlie the respective behavior patterns and world views” of the two countries. Its director is J. Stapleton Roy, US Ambassador to the People's Republic of China (1991-1995), and Vice Chairman of Kissinger Associates Inc. of New York. Co-Chairmen of the Institute’s Council are Xu Kuangdi, former Mayor of Shanghai, and former US Secretary of State, Dr. Henry A. Kissinger. The Wilson Center was established by Congress and is supported by public and private funds.

literature

Surveys and Documentation:

National Legislative/Parliamentary and Presidential Elections

Administrative Divisions of Countries

(Issue contains 28 pages.)