September 2008 Vol. 27  No. 459

Climate change is affecting a growing number of people and their countries. While there is still academic and political debate on whether we are dealing with a cyclical phenomenon or are seeing the damaging effects of human activity, rising sea levels, unusual droughts and floods are occurring right now. Inhabitants of an atoll in the South Pacific Ocean are leaving, in Kyrgyzstan the number of glaciers is dropping endangering water supply, and a new prediction speaks of the West African coastline under water by 2099. These and other findings were presented by experts to a working meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) in Accra on 21-27 August. In the case of Africa, the gradual melting of the Greenland ice cap will change the coastline from Mauritania to Cameroon, announced the Nigeria director of the Heinrich Böll Stiftung. Today, the littoral sea level is rising about two centimeters a year. Most cities and towns will not be submerged but their underground water supplies will be endangered making them unsuitable for drinking and farming. Cities which could be directly affected and large numbers of residents displaced include Lagos, Banjul, Bissau, and Nouakchott.

 Austria’s grand coalition of right and left broke up in July [p.3557] but September elections could lead to a similar arrangement. Meanwhile, erstwhile leader of the far right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), Jörg Haider, returned to the helm of the equally right-wing Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ), a party he helped create after dividing the FPÖ in 2005. (The European Union (EU) felt compelled to impose and maintain sanctions on Austria from February-September 2000 when the FPÖ became part of a coalition government). Dr. Haider (born 26 January 1950), a lawyer and Governor of Carinthia since 1999, in recent years has moved in and out of national politics without really pulling out. Meanwhile, his hostile attitude toward immigrants and minorities is inviting condemnation from democrats while attracting like-minded national extremists. On 30 August, delegates of the BZÖ met in Graz to select Haider as party leader replacing Peter Westenthaler (born 6 November 1967) who was convicted of perjury in July. The new party head said that he would present himself as the party’s candidate for federal chancellor.

Leadership of the French Socialist Party (PS) will be the main issue at the party congress on 14-16 November in Reims, Marne Department. François Hollande (born 12 August 1954) has been First Secretary since 1997, a position that is now sought by nearly a dozen although by the end of August there were only two serious candidates: Ms. Ségolène Royal (born 22 September 1953), since May, and Bertrand Delanoë (born 30 May 1950) who presented himself on 26 August. She ran unsuccessfully for the French presidency in 2007 and has indicated she plans to repeat her candidacy in 2012, a circumstance that may work against her. Delanoë, Mayor of Paris since 2001, on the other hand is ahead in polls and if chosen by the party will undoubtedly become its presidential nominee.

The European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX) will not only take over responsibilities from the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) but acquire some of its offices and equipment. A transfer agreement was signed on 18 August. Russia and Serbia which consider Kosovo’s declaration of independence illegal have demanded an explanation for the transfer from the UN Secretary General.

The right of return of some 4.5 million Arab Palestinians to former homes in Israel remains a basic demand of Palestinian leaders, regardless of affiliation. Likewise, the united position of those responsible for Israeli policy, whether in government or legislature, would forestall any return. Curiously, on 14 August, Haaretz reported that the prime minister had offered to admit 20,000 Arab Palestinians. His office immediately denied any such talk or offer but there remains ambiguity about Israel’s acceptance of former residents on humanitarian grounds.

The Russian president outlined his Foreign Policy Concept on 31 August near Sochi, Krasnodar Kray, after having presented it earlier at an ambassadors’ meeting. His five points were:

·         Superiority of the fundamentals of international law;

·         Multipolarity for the world;

·         No confrontation with any other country;

·         Russia will protect the lives of its citizens worldwide; and

·         Development of ties in friendly regions.

Turkey’s government is making a new and strong effort to gain membership in the European Union (EU). Over the next four years it will launch initiatives for 131 constitutional and legislative changes required under the EU accession plan. A deputy prime minister noted on 18 August that the changes would focus on improving functions of the judiciary and public institutions.

Viewing the World

 In August, one event was not man-made, the temporary shutdown of the oil industry in Galveston, Texas, by hurricane Ike. Refining capacity, about one-fifth of the US total, came to a standstill for a while affecting even Canadian motorists. The People’s Republic of China exploited the summer Olympics in Beijing to the hilt for its political benefits while always lecturing others about keeping sports and politics separate.

We had two, three if you count Zimbabwe, demonstrations of how states with authoritarian governments act despite promises. China pledged to respect human rights not only of foreign visitors but of its own people. Russia invaded Georgia. That certainly was a key event as far as Western governments and those in Central Asia and Transcaucasia saw it. Georgia entered its own territory, albeit disputed, on 6 August and quickly became engaged with Russian forces which had been readied for months across the border of South Ossetia.

When Kosovo declared independence with the approval of most Western governments, some formal, some tacit, against strong Russian objections it became clear that Georgia’s disputed enclaves of Abkhazia and South Ossetia could soon follow the same path with Russian encouragement and support. (Russia cleverly went the Sudetendeutsche route, claiming to protect its citizens in the “near abroad.”)

Who started what is more of legal interest now since both areas recognized by Russia as independent republics are not under the control of Georgia. Their recovery which also depends strongly on the wishes of the inhabitants is moot today. Sometimes, during a longer period of time, say decades, the situation can change but it can also settle firmly.

Rather than punish Russia, a good many Western diplomats and politicians think that Russia should be held to agreements it made and signed and that such further adventures must be prevented, for example in Moldova’s Transdniestr. Further, there is talk about raising the cost to Russia for such endeavors, be it by diplomatic, economic, or political means. Overall there is determination to protect independence which of course will pose problems in other areas, such as the Basque country, Kurdistan, Tibet, and Xinjiang.

US Democrats and Republicans nominate their frontrunners

At the convention of the Democratic Party, 25-28 August, in Denver, Colorado, Barack Obama  (born 4 August 1961), Senator from Illinois since January 2005, was elected candidate for the presidency on 27 August. His running mate was announced on 23 August: Joseph R. Biden (born 20 November 1942), Senator from Delaware since January 1973.

 The Republican Party at its convention on 1-4 September in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, elected its nominees for president and vice president on 3 September: John McCain (born 29 August 1936), Senator from Arizona since January 1987, and Sarah Pallin (born 11 February 1964), Governor of Alaska since December 2006. Her selection was announced on 29 August. She is the first woman Republican nominated for vice president and only the second American woman proposed for the position.

While you would hardly learn it from American mainstream press and television, other political parties and movements exist and campaign. So far their national impact is minimal, partly because they do not receive much attention from the media but also because the two major parties preempt others, especially at the state and county level where some so-called “third parties” sometimes achieve entry into legislatures.

Besides a handful of really minor parties—in appeal, funding, and strength—other condenters for the 2008 presidential election include:

Ralph Nader (born 27 February 1934), attorney and nationally known consumer advocate, running as an Independent with Mathew Edward “Matt” Gonzalez (born 4 June 1965), lawyer.

Bob Barr (5 November 1948), former Republican and federal prosecutor, Libertarian Party, with Wayne Allyn Root (born 20 July 1961), television producer and long time Republican.

Cynthia Ann McKinney (born 17 March 1955), first African American woman representing Georgia in the US House of Representatives for the Democratic Party (1993-2003, 2005-2007), university professor, running for The Greens with Rosa Alicia Clemente (born 18 April 1972), journalist and community organizer.

Dr. Charles “Chuck” Baldwin (3 May 1952), pastor and former Republican Party member, for the Constitution Party, with Darrell Castle (born 1948), attorney.

Dr. Alan Keyes (born 7 August 1950), former ambassador and foreign service officer and Republican Party member, for the just formed America’s Independent Party, with Brian Rohrbaugh (born 1961).

This list would be incomplete without mentioning Ron Paul MD (born 20 August 1935), Republican Congressman from Texas (1976–1977, 1979–1985, and 1997–present) who failed to get the Republican nomination this summer. He is heading the Campaign for Liberty and has urged voters to reject the two major nominees and vote for a third party candidate.

Bio Briefs [see printed issue]  

new government leaders

Dominican Republic: Dr. Leonel Fernández Reyna, President for a third five-year term, on 16 August.

Guinea-Bissau: Carlos Correia, Prime Minister, on 6 August.

Mauritania: General Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, President, High Council of State, on 6 August.

Mauritania: Moulaye Ould Mohamed Laghdaf, Prime Minister, on 14 August.

Nepal: Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Prime Minister, on 18 August.

Pakistan: Senate Chairman Mohammadmian Soomro, Acting President, on 18 August.

Paraguay: Fernando Lugo Méndez, President, on 15 August.

Paraguay: Federico Franco Gómez, Vice President, on 15 August.

Surveys and Documentation:

Government & Leader Changes

Country Notes 2008

Cabinet Directory: Argentina

Cabinet Directory: Japan

Cabinet Directory: Russia

(Issue contains 36 pages.)