October 2008 Vol. 27  No. 460

The European Union (EU) is concerned about the political weakening of the Czech government. Prague is scheduled to assume the chairmanship on 1 January for six months and has to cope with an unusually heavy agenda of significant matters. If domestic politics interfere they may delay or jeopardize the re-unification of Cyprus and set back preparations for the admission of Croatia and later Serbia.

Reneging on a promise to hold elections in 2009 and to return to democratic governing, Fiji’s military ruler, Commodore Frank Baininmarama, is apt to lead to the country’s suspension from the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF). The Forum condemned his actions on 21 August and has demanded an explanation why he has no kept his promise.

Another candidate for the leadership of the French Socialist Party (PS) has made it official. Ms. Martine Aubry, 58, formally entered the campaign on 19 September, joining three declared contenders. An active member of the party, she is mayor of Lille and has served as Minister of Labor and Minister of Social Affairs in two separate cabinets. She is the daughter of Jacques Delors who served as President of the European Commission (EC) and as finance minister

Mayotte in the Indian Ocean may become the 101^st Department of France in 2009. Somewhat smaller than Guam and under French protection since 1841, the island decided overwhelmingly to stay part of the French Community when the neighboring Comoros chose independence in 1974. In April, the island’s legislature approved a motion requesting departmental status under the law of 22 February 2007 authorizing the change. Consultations with the metropolitan government are scheduled for April 2009.

The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) made a major leadership change, one year before the federal elections. On 7 September, Franz Müntefering, (born 16 January 1940) was nominated Chairman, succeeding Kurt Beck (born 5 February 1949) who resigned unwillingly. The prospective chairman has held the same office 2004-2005 and served as leader of the SPD parliamentary group from 2002-2005. On 21 November 2007 he resigned as Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister of Labor and took a “political sabbatical.” Minister for Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier (born 5 January 1956) was nominated to be the party’s candidate for Federal Chancellor. While  Müntefering is well known and respected as an experienced politician, Steinmeier is regarded as too much of a centrist by the party’s basis and is seen lacking voter appeal. A special party congress on 18 October will vote on the nominations.

Germany with its highly developed technology remains a major arena for foreign espionage, maintain the Federal Ministry of Interior and the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV). With the disappearance of the Soviet Union and East European communist governments in 1990, military secrets have given way to industry and technology as targets. A federal ministerial spokesman quoted in the Frankfurter Rundschau on 15 August speaks about growing danger to German economy, to large as well as small companies which engage in business abroad. China heads the list of collectors, followed by Russia. Among those greatly vulnerable to approach by agents are guest researchers and foreign students.

Disaffected members of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Gujarat State of India formed the Mahaguharat Janata Party (MJP) on 10 September, reports the Indo-Asian News Service (IANS). Gordhan Zadafia, former Home Minister who was suspended from the BJP, is President and Sunil Oza is General Secretary. The new party is aiming to promote stronger Hindu ways and is currently represented by one deputy in the Lok Sabha.

Indonesia will go to the polls in 2009 to elect a new legislature and a president. But an Indonesian research institute, LP3ES, of Jakarta, announced in August that at least 20 percent of the 174 million eligible voters may be left out. It proposed that the General Election Commission (KPU) extend voter registration and update its data, reports The Jakarta Post.

Japan’s new prime minister challenged the major opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to cooperate and endorsed alliance with the United States rather than relying more on the United Nations (UN). Taro Aso (born 20 September 1940) of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is the 11^th prime minister and the fourth one in 3 years. Described as controversial and nationalistic, he has served in several ministerial positions. In his first policy speech to the Diet on 29 September he surprised Japanese observers that he singled out the DPJ by name when criticizing its parliamentary conduct. His most important task is to rebuild the economy, followed by revitalizing the regions, global warming, and strengthening the security alliance with the US.

A commission found that Kenya’s process for the 2007 general elections was flawed. The Review Commission reported on 22 September that the “constitutional and legal framework relating to elections contains a number of weaknesses and inconsistencies” and the electoral management process needs revising. The Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) lacked independence, capacity, and functionality and credibility was gravely impaired. Voter registration excluded nearly one-third of eligible voters and included the names of 1.2 million dead people. The commission’s chief recommendation was to create a new body to handle elections.

Next year’s elections in Sudan could be delayed by at least six months, a minister of the government in the South said on 11 September. In 2005 it was agreed to hold elections by July 2009 and allow a referendum on independence of the South by 2011.

The Swiss People’s Party (SVP) must nominate an electable candidate for federal councilor, i.e. member of the government, and abandon its opposition, the three major parties announced on 28 September. The candidacy depends on the possible resignation of Samuel Schmid (SVP) who heads the Federal Department for Defense. If the party should not comply it would be excluded from government for the next four years.

The ouster of British Prime Minister Gordon Brown was averted. Over the summer, he had become more unpopular with citizens and with a number of Labour Party members, including ministers and some in the House of Commons. Lack of clarity in policies and economic setbacks were given as reasons and 12 Labour Members of Parliament, the so-called rebels, demanded that the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) allow a vote on Brown at the annual party conference. But cabinet, trade unions, and the NEC rallied around the prime minister and the request was blocked. At the meeting on 20-24 September in Manchester pressure for Brown to resign continued but he refused and said “I’m not going to be diverted by a few people making complaints.”

Viewing the World

 No doubt, the continuing financial crisis which began with the collapse of an established US financial institution and now has reached out to Europe and Asia, moved all other events aside. Regrettably, the upset is now affecting food prices in countries with large number of impoverished people who cannot buy their basic staples. Governments and experts are vying for finding a solution which at the moment consists mainly of injecting tax monies into banks and insurance companies, both public and private ones. Naturally, the solution is seen in changing the world’s financial system—a 20-nation conference will be held—when the root causes of incompetent and irresponsible conduct by managers, especially in the US, driven by quick profits and disregard for sound assessment of risk, first require a return to stricter oversight and self-discipline.

The Brazilian president is holding the US responsible for the current global financial crisis. In late September he urged quick action and added “It’s not fair for Latin American, African, and Asian countries to pay for the irresponsibility of sectors of the American financial system,” a sentiment shared by the leaders of France, Germany, and the UK although it has become clear that their banks were not innocent bystanders.

New elections in Austria after the breakup of the Grand Coalition resulted—you guessed it—in preparations for a new Grand Coalition. In Ukraine, the legislature opposing the president tried to deny him the funds to conduct new elections. Eventually everybody compromised on a new date. Compromise is not in the cards for Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi of Italy whose allies managed to pass laws protecting him from law suits. But a Milan prosecutor now claims that the laws do not resolve cases that were started before enactment. He also says that the latest law, the Alfano law, is a constitutional law requiring a larger majority. In South Africa, the governing African National Congress (ANC) party is in turmoil after President Thabo Mbeki was forced to resign. Not only did several loyal ministers resign too but the creation of a dissident party is a real possibility. The outlook for Zimbabwe to put the power sharing agreement of 15 September into practice remains dim. Talks between the parties make no progress as President Robert Mugabe tries to bully his way through and even his supporter, former South African President Mbeki, is now failing.

Older and diverse US population in 2050 will bring

new challenges to politics

 Climate and demographic changes do not command top attention in American media and so the news in mid-August that by 2050 minorities will account for more than half of the population in the United States of America received little play. The US Census Bureau also reported that by then the working population will have dropped to 57 percent. Changes will come gradually but the prediction that the Hispanic population will double during the next 40 years to 30 percent will have significant political and social consequences.

Today immigration is a hot topic in the US and differently from Europe where the focus is on entering Africans. The debate really centers on those entering from Central and South America. A shift in numbers will not only give Latinos more political clout, strengthen efforts to make Spanish an accepted language, but eventually lead to redistricting of election districts. The Census Bureau projection also sees that the population of children by 2050 is expected to be 62 percent minority of which 39 percent will be Hispanic, a factor that will greatly affect future spending for education. Following are some of the key findings for 2050:

·         Minorities will account for 54 percent of the total population.

·         Children (about 33 percent of total population) will be 62 percent minority (39 percent Hispanic)

·         The number of working age residents (18-65 years) will decline to 57 percent.

·         Working age population will be 55 percent minority (30 percent Hispanic, 15 percent black).

·         Those 65 and older will increase to 88.5 million (about 20 percent of total population), of which 19 million will be 85 and older.

·         Non-Hispanic, single-race white population will number 203.3 million (46 percent share).

·         Hispanic population will grow from 46.7 million to 132.8 million (30 percent share).

·         Black population will grow one percent to 15 percent.

·         Asian population will nearly double, from 5.1 percent to 9.2 percent.

·         American and Alaskan natives will rise from 4.9 million to 8.6 million (2 percent share).

Basis for population estimates: 304,228,257 in 2008; 439,010,253 in 2050.

German CDU eyes Liberal coalition partner

 If there was any doubt that Federal Chancellor Dr. Angela Merkel was not looking forward to another four years of heading the next German government, her remarks at a party meeting on 5 September in Berlin blew away lingering doubts. She is enjoying favorable polls at home and has received good marks from the international press, especially for her engagement in European affairs and keeping open delicate links to Russia. The effective working of the governing coalition of Christian Democratic Union-Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU) and Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), despite some achievements, is hindered more and more by partisan bickering and holding back of support for solutions—by all three parties—to use them in the 2009 election campaign. Merkel told CDU county leaders that different political conditions will be needed and that the party’s goal is coalition with the center-right Free Democratic Party (FDP). A day later, FDP leader Guido Westerwelle indirectly underwrote future coalition with the CDU when he criticized the Socialists for courting the FDP at the federal level and cooperating with the Greens and the Left at the state level, such as in Hesse. Rubbing salt in the wound, he demanded that the SPD withdraw the nomination of Prof. Gesine Schwan, 65, for Federal President and support the incumbent.  

Will the Crimea abandon Ukraine?

 The Crimea continues to add to the government crisis in Ukraine. Not only does the Autonomous Republic willingly ignore some regulations of the government in Kyiv but goes counter the president’s policies. On 18 September, the Supreme Soviet, the regional legislature, approved a resolution by a vote of 79 against 8 to demand that the government recognize the independence of Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia. By treaty, Russia is to vacate the peninsula’s major naval base of Sevastopol by 2017, an obligation it accepts publicly. The Kremlin may however count on the considerable pro-Russian sentiment in the Crimea and await a public move for return to Russia. After abolition of the Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic in 1945 it was reconstituted as Crimea Oblast’ of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR). In 1954, the Oblast’ was transferred to Ukraine, ostensibly for geographic, cultural, and economic reasons but in reality with the encouragement of Nikita Khrushchov.

Bio Briefs [see printed issue]   

new leaders

Angola: Paulo Kassoma, Prime Minister, on 30 September, succeeding Fernando da Piedade Dias dos Santos Nando.

Australia: Quentin Bryce, Governor General, on 5 September, succeeding (MAJ GEN) Michael Jeffery.

Cambodia: Hun Sen, Prime Minister, re-confirmed on 25 September.

Haiti: Ms. Michèle Pierre-Louis, Prime Minister, on 5 September, replacing Jacques-Edouard Alexis (dismissed on 12 April).

Japan: Taro Aso, Prime Minister, on 24 September, succeeding Yasuo Fukuda who resigned on 1 September.

Mauritania: Moulaye Ould Mohamed Laghdaf, Prime Minister, re-confirmed on 1 September.

Mauritius: Sir Anerood Jugnauth, President, reelected on 19 September.

Mongolia: Sanjaagiln Bayar, Prime Minister, reappointed on 20 September.

Pakistan: Asif Ali Zardari, President, on 9 September, succeeding GEN Pervez Musharraf who resigned on 18 August.

South Africa: Kgalema Motlanthe, President, on 25 September, succeeding Thabo Mvuyelwa Mbeki who resigned on 21 September, effective 25 September.

Baleka Mbete, Deputy President, on 25 September, succeeding Ms. Phumzile Gloria Mlambo-Ngcuka who resigned on 23 September.

Thailand: Somchai Wongsawat, Prime Minister, on 25 September, replacing Samak Sundaravej who was ordered to resign on 9 September.

Togo: Gilbert Houngbo, Prime Minister, on 8 September, succeeding Komlan Mally who resigned on 5 September.

Vanuatu: Edward Natapei, Prime Minister, on 22 September, succeeding Ham Lini.

*

Armenia: Ovik Abramian (HHK), Speaker of the National Assembly, on 17 September, succeeding Tigran Torosian (HHK) who resigned.

Russia: Aleksandr Porfirevich Torshin, First Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council, a newly reestablished position, elected on 19 September.

*

Australia—Liberal Party of Australia (LPA/Lib.): Malcolm Turnbull, Federal Party Leader, elected on 16 September, succeeding John Howard who resigned in November 2007.

Austria—Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP): Josef Pröll, Acting Leader (Bundesparteiobmann), appointed on 29 September, succeeding Wilhelm Molterer who resigned.

Liberal Forum (LIF): Ms. Heide Schmidt, Interim Chair, on 23 September, succeeding Alexander Zach who resigned on 23 September.

Czech Republic—Green Party (SZ): Martin Bursίk, re-elected  Leader, on 6 September.

Germany—Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)—Franz Müntefering, nominated Chairman, on 7 September, succeeding Kurt Beck who resigned on 7 September.

Karl-Josef “Kajo” Wasserhövel, Federal Business Manager, appointed on 15 September, replacing Martin Gorholt.

India--All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK): Ms. Jayaram Jayalalitha, General Secretary, re-elected on 10 September.

Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), Assam: Chandra Mohan Patowary, President, elected on 21 September, replacing Brindaban Goswami who was removed.

Indian Union Muslim League (IUML): E. Ahamed, National President, elected on 14 September, succeeding G. M. Banatwala who died on 25 June.

Israel—Forward (KADIMA): Ms. Tzipi Livni, Chair, elected on 17 September, succeeding Ehud Olmert who resigned on 30 July.

Japan—Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ): Ichiro Ozawa, President, re-elected on 22 September.

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP): Taro Aso, President, elected on 22 September, succeeding Yasuo Fukuda who resigned on 1 September.

New Komeito: Akihiro Ota, Chief Representative, re-elected on 23 September.

Macedonia—Social Democratic Union (SDSM): Zoran Zaev, Acting President, elected on 18 September, replacing Ms. Radmila Sekerinska.

Russia—Union of Right Forces (SPS): Leonid Gozman, Acting Leader, appointed on 26 September, succeeding Nikita Yur’yevich Belykh who resigned.

Serbia—Serbian Radical Party (SRS): Dragan Todorović, acting Party President and President SRS Parliamentary Group, designated on 6 September, replacing Tomislav Nikolić who resigned on 6 September and was expelled on 12 September.

United Kingdom—Green Party of England and Wales: Ms. Caroline Walker, Leader, elected on 5 September, succeeding Richard Mallender.

Scottish Labour Party (SLP): Iain Gray, Leader, elected on 13 September 2008, succeeding Ms. Wendy Alexander who resigned on 28 June.

elections

Angola—National Assembly: Governing Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), 191 of 220 seats, on 5-6 September. The National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) obtains 16 seats. After initially demanding to repeat the election because of delays, UNITA conceded defeat. The legislative election was the first one in 16 years.

Austria--National Council: Coalition partner Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ), 58 of 183 seats, on 28 September. The other coalition partner, Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), obtained 50 seats.

Belarus--Chamber of Representatives: Of the 263 candidates nominated by collecting signatures and by local administrations, labor unions, and collectives, 110, all loyal supporters of the president, were elected on 28 September. There were 70 opposition candidates of which 46 were nominated by 13 opposition parties but none were elected. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on 20 September criticized the counting of votes in half of the polling stations and found that the election did not meet democratic standards.

France—Senate: One-third or 65 of 321 seats in 27 Departments and 5 overseas entities were vacant. Opposition Socialist Party (PS), 30 seats, on 21 September, followed by 16 seats for the governing Union for a Popular Movement (UMP).

Korea (DPRK): Elections of the Supreme People's Assembly were scheduled for 5 August however there is no information that they were held or what the results were.

Rwanda--Chamber of Deputies: Governing Rwandan Patriotic Front (FPR), 42 of 80 seats (and an additional 17 seats held by women), on 15 September (Fifty-three seats are elected directly, 27 indirectly of which 24 are reserved for women).

Slovenia--National Assembly: Opposition Social Democrats (SD), 29 of 90 seats, on 21 September. The former governing Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) obtained 28 seats.

Swaziland--House of Assembly: Since political parties are prohibited, the 55 deputies elected are independents, on 19 September (Ten seats are filled by appointment by the king).

Vanuatu--Parliament : Party of Our Land (Vanua’aku Pati/VP), 11 of 52 seats, on 2 September. The governing National Unity Party (NUP)  obtains 8 seats and the Union of Moderate Parties (Union blong Moderet Pati/UMP) and the Vanuatu Republican Party (Ripablikan Pati blong Vanuatu/RPV) 7 seats each.

literature

Surveys and Documentation:

Peace and Stability

Country Notes 2008

Cabinet Directory: Japan

Cabinet Directory: USA

(Issue contains 26 pages.)