New Page 1

Guinea’s move to a transitional government from military rule remains stalled and the injury of the coup leader in a shooting is not helping matters along. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has repeatedly called on the leader to step down and now several European states are demanding that those responsible for the massacre of anti-coup demonstrators be brought to justice. (No. 474 December 2009)

The absence of Nigeria’s ailing president is endangering the government’s stability and is giving rise to new power plays. He is opposed to letting the vice president act in his absence. (No. 474 December 2009)

The poor state of governance in some African countries is underlined by the announcement of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation of London on 19 October that the annual leadership award will not be handed out this year. Although there are some credible candidates, says the Foundation, the Prize Committee “could not select a winner.” There are fears that Nigeria will become a failed state. The best that can be said about Zimbabwe is that the government of “unity” is one in name only and continues to muddle through while the autocratic president remains in control. (No. 473 November 2009)

BOTSWANA

The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has governed since independence in 1966 and continues to hold a majority of 45 of 57 seats in the National Assembly as a result of general elections on 9 October. Two major opposition parties obtained 10 seats. (No. 473 November 2009)

GUINEA

The military junta ruling Guinea is heading into growing turmoil. Not only will there be international prosecution for the fatal massacre of at least 157 people and widespread violence against protesters, but opposition leaders will not enter a unity government and reject the military leader’s candidacy—neither declared nor renounced—for president in January. Meanwhile the African Union (AU), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the European Union (EU), and the United States of America have imposed sanctions against the military government. (No. 473 November 2009)

NIGERIA

The government’s sharing of 10 percent of revenues from oil in the Niger Delta region with local communities is seen by locals as a first step toward restoring peace. Although the main group of militants, the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND), is observing a ceasefire, others will not end violent actions until greater equity is achieved. (No. 473 November 2009)

SWAZILAND

The non-democratic authoritarian government of Swaziland is trying to restrict activities of both domestic and foreign non-governmental organizations (NGOs), report the United Nations. The country is heavily dependent on international donors but king and court feel threatened by demands, especially from women, for the abolition of discriminatory practices and widening of political rights. (No. 473 November 2009)

MADAGASCAR

Uneasy start for new government

The transitional government of Madagascar is off to an uneasy start and some political leaders see mounting tension which could lead to a civil war [p. 3911]. With the help of the Southern African Development Community and especially the former President of Mozambique, Joaquim Chissano, an agreement was reached on 9 August in Maputo. The leaders of the island’s four major parties agreed to leave the government in the hands of the Mayor of Antananarivo, Andry Nirina Rajoelina (born 30 May 1974) (Determined Malagasy Youth/TGV), who had proclaimed himself President on 31 January and replaced Marc Ravalomanana (born 12 December 1949) (I Love Madagascar/TIM). Part of the agreement was that Rajoelina would not be a candidate in the next presidential elections. Leading up to formation of a transitional administration on 7 October, helped along by the African Union (AU), the interim president intimidated and seized members of the opposition. If the Maputo Agreement is adhered to, presidential and legislative elections must be held between now and November 2010. Besides sharing in cabinet posts, the parties also will head the following organs:

National Council of Reconciliation--National Union for Democracy and Development (UNDD)/National Reconciliation Committee (CRN)

Transitional Congress--I Love Madagascar (TIM); and

Transitional Superior Court-- Determined Malagasy Youth (TGV).

An Economic and Social Council will be headed by a member of the civil society and an international mediation team will remain present during the transition. (No. 472 October 2009)

ZIMBABWE

Mugabe still calls the shots

In more democratic systems political parties enter into coalition agreements, in less stable regimes there are power sharing agreements, often arranged by third parties. Their duration varies and some never work. Madagascar just started with one and in Zimbabwe the unity government set up in February 2009 exists in name only. From the start it was clear that President Robert Mugabe and the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) had no intention to give up power. During the past 8 months, the nominal partner, Prime Minister Tsvangirai and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), have been harassed, threatened by the state media, one of its minister arrested, preparations for a new constitution sabotaged, and frequently sidelined. Seizures of white-owned farms continue and land often ends up in the hands of allies of the president without being put to productive use. Another MDC complaint is the president’s failure to appoint senior officials. The Global Political Agreement (GPA) which was signed on 15 September 2008 also includes a splinter group of the MDC, led by Arthur Mutambara. It received four ministerial posts but has been shunted aside. Last month the MDC began discussing whether it should support a request for lifting international sanctions against the president when the MDC minister was arrested again. On 15 October, the prime minister announced the MDC would boycott the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the president let it be known that he could not be bothered by this because he was busy. The prime minister noted on 23 October that the boycott does not end the GPA. (No. 472 October 2009)

Qadhafi’s visions and anger: Member states of the African Union (AU) are not in a hurry to turn its annual leader’s demands and visions into reality. Forming a United States of Africa runs counter to strong national interests as well as the continent’s tribal culture. It appears that Libyan Leader Colonel Mu’ammar Qadhafi (born 7 June 1942) has been impressed by the idea embodied in North America but has overlooked that the US was not formed from 61 territories with different cultures, ethnic makeup, and languages. But Qadhafi does not hesitate to push his views, even if some are absurd or impractical. At the special summit of the AU on 1 September in Tripoli he demanded that all Israeli embassies in Africa be closed. A few days later it became known that he was going to the UN General Assembly in New York to demand that the “rogue state” of Switzerland be dissolved and its cantons distributed among its neighbors. His ire with Bern was caused in July 2008 when the leader’s youngest son, Hannibal, and two of his bodyguards were arrested in a Geneva hotel for allegedly mistreating two members of his entourage. With the help of his diplomatic passport and the Libyan embassy, the son left the country a few days later after posting a bond but his father retaliated. Tribal honor was at stake. Oil supply to Switzerland was stopped, money withdrawn from Swiss accounts, offices of Swiss firms in Libya closed, and two of its employees held under the pretext of having violated immigration regulations. Even after the original complaints were withdrawn by the employees (In 2005, Hannibal was arrested in Paris for violent behavior), the two Swiss are held hostages. A promise reportedly given to the Swiss president was never honored and now Qadhafi is venting his anger at the country. While the handling of the arrests in Geneva which is subject of a civil suit is now in the hands of an international arbitration court, parties to the suit against Geneva authorities suspended proceedings on 23 September and a day later Qadhafi assured the Swiss president that the businessmen would be freed. (No. 471 September 2009)

Southern Africa says no to Madagascar but not to Zimbabwe: The unitary government in Madagascar was rejected by leaders of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) but complaints about violations of the powersharing agreement between the major Zimbabwean parties did not get a hearing. The summit on 7 September in Kinshasa found that the government in Madagascar violated the spirit of the recent Maputo accord. Discussion of progress of the national unity government in Zimbabwe was deferred until an extraordinary summit is held but the SADC joined in supporting Zimbabwe’s president’s call for lifting sanctions. One summit participant said that Zimbabwe was never on the agenda. (No. 471 September 2009)

Africa: The African Union (AU) elected the mercurial Libyan leader to chair the group for one year. His goal is to form a United States of Africa but the latest summit revealed that even reaching agreement on an AU governing body is stymied by national and political interests of African leaders. Likewise, a new Nile Pact which has been in the works for the last ten years remains stalled. (No.465 March 2009)

Africa: While trying to get rid of dictators in Mauritania and Zimbabwe, Africa is finding itself saddled with a new one in Guinea after its long reigning autocrat had died. Meanwhile the old issues of strife in the Congo, Nigeria, Somalia, and Uganda are ongoing and acts of piracy are up around the Horn of Africa. China continues to benefit from its involvement in local projects, the latest one the construction of a new airport for the Mauritanian capital. (No. 463 January 2009

The second annual survey tracking the quality of government in 48 African countries places Mauritius (2007: no. 1), Seychelles (no. 2), Cape Verde (no. 4), Botswana (no. 3), and South Africa (no. 5) in the top five places.

Except for a slight drop in ratings for the Seychelles, the other four all show improvements in human rights. At the bottom of the 2008 survey are Angola (no. 44; 2007: no 42), Sudan (no. 45; no. 45), Chad (no. 46; no. 46); Congo (DR) (no. 47; no. 47); and Somalia (no. 48; no. 48). Guinea-Bissau which ranked 44^th last year jumped to 30^th place and others that improved the most were Liberia, Burundi, Uganda, and Madagascar.

The so-called Ibrahim Index of African Governance runs from a combined high grade of 85.1 to 18.9 (2007:86.2 to 28.1). There are 28 countries in mid-range, incl. Cameroon, Kenya, Senegal, Tanzania, and Zambia but Nigeria ranks 39^th out of 48, a drop of two places since last year and Mauritania dropped 11 places. The index, named after the founder of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation of Cape Town and London, is divided into five broad categories of safety and security; rule of law, transparency, and corruption; participation and human rights; sustainable economic opportunity; and human development, 15 sub-criteria, and 58 measurements. The Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University directed preparation of the index. (No. 461 November 2008)

A commission found that Kenya’s process for the 2007 general elections was flawed. The Review Commission reported on 22 September that the “constitutional and legal framework relating to elections contains a number of weaknesses and inconsistencies” and the electoral management process needs revising. The Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) lacked independence, capacity, and functionality and credibility was gravely impaired. Voter registration excluded nearly one-third of eligible voters and included the names of 1.2 million dead people. The commission’s chief recommendation was to create a new body to handle elections. (No. 460 October 2008)

Next year’s elections in Sudan could be delayed by at least six months, a minister of the government in the South said on 11 September. In 2005 it was agreed to hold elections by July 2009 and allow a referendum on independence of the South by 2011. (No. 460 October 2008)

The National Assembly of Sudan approved a new electoral law on 7 July. It introduces proportional representation and sets aside 25 percent of parliamentary seats for women. Sixty percent of seats will be filled by direct voting and 40 percent by the winners of party lists. Again women will be guaranteed 25 percent of the seats and parties 15 percent. (No. 458 August 2008)

The planned Union Government for the African Union (AU) remains an unresolved project. A major obstacle is the unwillingness of member states to give up authorities granted by their own constitutions. Leaders held a summit meeting on 30 June-1 July in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, which ended without agreement except to talk further at an extraordinary summit in January 2009 in Addis Ababa. (No. 458 August 2008)

Morgan Tsvangirai of Zimbabwe’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) received 47.9 percent of votes cast in the presidential election of 29 March, the Electoral Commission announced on 2 May, nearly six weeks later. Incumbent Robert Mugabe followed with 43.2 percent and former Minister of Finance Simba Makoni 8.3 percent. The MDC challenged its candidate’s result, saying that he had gained 50.3 percent and that the runoff scheduled for 27 June was not necessary. During the following weeks it became clear that the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) with the help of army and police would make sure that Mugabe was reelected and that Tsvangirai would be harassed, threatened into withdrawing, even be murdered. (No. 456 June 2008)

It has become customary in some African countries to prevent candidates for high office, especially those who have served before, by accusing them of corruption or question their citizenship. Without prejudging the case of Malawi’s Bakili Muluzi (born 17 March 1943) whose charges for corruption and fraud were dropped before, his intent to enter the next presidential race prompted authorities to say just a week later that he would be prosecuted for diverting donor funds. Muluzi served two five-year terms as President from 21 May 1994-20 May 2004. On 24 April, the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) nominated him candidate for the presidential elections in 2009. Another complication may be the two-term ban although it is supposed to apply to consecutive terms. (No. 455 May 2008)

A new survey tracking the quality of government in 48 African countries places Mauritius, Seychelles, Botswana, Cape Verde, and South Africa in the top five places. Observation of human rights and sustainable economic development received lesser marks in Botswana and Cape Verde. At the bottom of the 2007 survey are Guinea-Bissau, Sudan, Chad, Congo (DR), and Somalia (at the bottom). The so-called Ibrahim Index of African Governance runs from a combined high grade of 86.2 to 28.1. There are 29 countries in mid-range, incl. Senegal, Tanzania, Kenya, Zambia, and Zimbabwe but Nigeria ranks 37^th out of 48. The index, named after the founder of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation of Cape Town and London, is divided into five broad categories of safety and security; rule of law, transparency, and corruption; participation and human rights; sustainable economic opportunity; and human development, 15 sub-criteria, and 58 measurements. The Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University directed preparation of the index. (No. 447 September 2007)

Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (born 1950) of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), was sworn in as the country’s third Executive President on 29 May. He succeeded General Olusegun Obasanjo who had served two four-year terms since 1999 and whose supporters tried to have him serve a third time by skirting the constitutional two-term limit. The new Vice President is Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) (born 1957), a Christian and former Governor of the Niger Delta Bayelsa State (2005-2006). The new president was elected on 21 April, one of 24 candidates (For details, see summary in the back of this issue), in a hotly contested campaign in which at least 200 people died (The candidate for the small Alliance for Democracy (AD) had died of natural causes in late March and a substitute was found who placed 7^th). The result is being challenged in court and the chief poll watcher of the European Union (EU) said the elections had “fallen short” of basic international standards. Much of the pre-campaign controversy surrounded former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who was denied support by the PDP, switched parties, was denied registration by the Independent National Electoral Commission, reinstated by court action, and gained third place as Action Congress (AC) candidate. Aside from charges of massive vote rigging, it is remarkable that of Nigeria’s past five presidencies this was the first time that a chief of state had successfully served out his constitutional term.

Yar’Adua, a polytechnic teacher, is a Muslim and from May 1999 until this year served as Governor of the northern Katsina State, the 5^th of the 11 states which introduced Islamic shari’a law in August 2000. What has distinguished the governor’s administration from others was that it stayed free from the taint of corruption. Since the new president up until now has not been much in the public limelight and is described as somewhat withdrawn, his choice has given rise to views that he might only be a stand-in for former President Obasanjo.

A week before the presidential poll, gubernatorial elections were held in the 36 federal states on 14 April. Eight of the incumbents were reelected. Elections for the National Assembly made up of the 360-seat House of Representatives and the 109-seat Senate were also held on 21 April. (No. 443 May 2007)

From remarks Kenya’s President Mwa Kibaki of the National Alliance (NA) made on 1 February it becomes clear that he will be a candidate for a second term in elections this year. He disavows any statement that there is a gentlemen’s agreement with the National Rainbow Coalition that he would stay a one-term president. (No. 440 February 2007)