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A Brazilian role in the Middle East? One often wonders what moves political leaders to suddenly interject themselves into conflicts, disputes that have defied solution for years. Is it a new approach, an idea, an urge to appear statesman-like, vanity, or seeking influence? The Libyan leader has in the past mediated in quarrels south of his border and his earlier meddling turned into influence and so he could show off some successes. Perhaps his mediation between Algeria and Egypt will also be fruitful. For years, Soviet and then Russian leaders have tried to create a role for themselves in the Arab-Israeli conflict in Palestine. Now with close relations with Iran expansion of that role may bear some fruit but it will not result in a decisive change. The US and the European Union together might be able to convince Israel to stop delaying or resisting Arab Palestinian demands. Now Brazil’s president finds that he can play a role in the Middle East and one hopes he was not put up to that by the presidents of Iran and Venezuela who see it as a way of diluting or undercutting Western and especially US influence. No doubt there are able diplomats and thinkers in Brasilia and based on sheer size that country is important—but on the world scene its influence and role are still limited and remain oriented toward the Americas, regardless of new efforts to boost international influence by including it in the so-called Brazil-India-China-Russia or BRIC constellation. As far as size and resources are concerned Australia, Egypt, Indonesia, Italy, Pakistan, South Africa, and Sudan are also significant yet their geopolitical role for the time being remains local or regional at best. (No. 473 November 2009) BRAZIL The governing Workers’ Party (PT) reached agreement with the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) in support of the candidacy of Ms. Dilma Vana Rousseff Linhares (born 14 December 1947 for President of Brazil. (No. 473 November 2009) HONDURAS The removal, seizure, and expulsion of President Manuel Zelaya Rosales (born 20 September 1952) of the Liberal Party of Honduras (PLH) on 28 June was a coup d’état, United Nations Headquarters clarified on 14 October. (No. 473 November 2009) NICARAGUA ‘The people’s right is higher than the constitution’ The Constitutional Chamber of Nicaragua’s Supreme Court ruled on 20 October that the sitting president can run for office in 2011 in violation of a constitutional ban on immediate reelection. While a convoluted reasoning of respecting the right of the people to name their choice and abolishing limits on that right was circulated, it is clear that maneuvering by court members of the same party of the president and preventing others from attending the session was how it was done. Later it was announced that the ruling would stay and would not be reviewed by the full court. President José Daniel Ortega Saavedra (born 11 November 1945) of the Sandinist National Liberation Front (FSLN) was a member of the ruling FSNL junta from 1979-1985 that overthrew the government, served as elected president from 1985-1990 and was reelected for his current second term in 2006. (No. 473 November 2009) The Administration of President Barak Obama is entering its ninth month of being in office and is criticized for the slow pace of filling top government positions. Vacancies exist on a number of boards and commissions when terms expired with the old Administration and judgeships too are open. But the concern centers on federal departments. The New York Times reported on 24 August that of 385 key positions, 151 were still vacant and that of the more than 500 senior positions that require Senate confirmation less than half have been filled. The White House said it had appointed at least 50 percent more people than any of the last three presidents had at this stage. (No. 472 October 2009) CANADA Minority government remains Chalk it up to leadership, luck, or loss of heart by the opposition but Canada’s conservative government survived a crucial vote on 18 September. By 224 against 74, the House of Commons approved a motion on the budget thus avoiding new elections as predicted by the Liberal Party [p. 3911]. In fact, its leader had a change of mind and on 20 October said although the Liberals will not support the government they will not propose their own motions of no-confidence and not actively seek to defeat the Conservatives. (No. 472 October 2009) Viewing the World Viewers in the United States and some abroad had the opportunity to listen and see coverage of dramatic, enlightening as well as sad ceremonies and memorial services for Senator Edward M. Kennedy. Aside from calling attention to the senator’s civic and public accomplishments were testimonials from political allies as well as opponents. It was encouraging to hear that a man of strong convictions and determination and a master of reading other politicians was praised not only for his civility when dealing with opponents, staff, and supporters but for practicing the art of the possible compromise. We also learn that the respected politician does not carry his politics into the personal sphere. (No. 471 September 2009) Brazilian democrats will support Lula’s successor: The candidate of the governing Workers’ Party (PT) was assured support of the Party of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (PMDB) if she needs it. This promise was made by José Sarney de Araújo Costa (born 24 April 1930) (PMDB-AP) on 2 September. The candidate, Ms. Dilma Vana Rousseff Linhares (born 14 December 1947), economist who currently heads the Civilian Household of the Presidency (i.e., chief of staff), will succeed President Luíz Inacio Lula da Silva (born 27 October 1945) if elected in 2010. Sarney, former president, is fighting numerous allegations of corruption which he denies and is the target of demonstrators who are looking for an untainted younger leader. (No. 471 September 2009) Canada’s Liberal Party ready to topple Conservative government: The prime minister and his Conservative Party cabinet are again faced with ouster. The threat of being replaced announced in December 2008 [p. 3597] fizzled a month later but maybe this time the Liberal Party is serious. Its leader, Michael Ignatieff (born 12 May 1947), on 1 September said he would no longer support the minority party. Nine days later, CTV reported that Ignatieff said Prime Minister Stephen Harper (born 30 April 1959) is disdainful of Canadian social institutions and “the real Harper always comes out when he thinks he can’t be heard,” referring to videoed remarks about separatists, socialists, and liberal judges. On 11 September, it was announced that the Liberal Party would not enter a coalition with the New Democratic Party (LDP), a Liberal coalition partner until early this year. (No. 471 September 2009) US is pondering its strategy in Afghanistan: International interest is focused on what the government of the United States of America will do next in Afghanistan and by extension in Central Asia. A well publicized leaked report by the US commander in Kabul says the engagement will end in failure without more troops. Inside the Administration opinions about policy diverge with the vice president reportedly among those who would suggest a less military approach. The American public too is divided with those favoring withdrawal of troops gaining. A similar development is seen among allies, especially in Canada, Germany, and the United Kingdom. When six Italian soldiers were killed by a suicide bomber this month, emotions rose and many began to publicly question the mission. It is increasingly complicated by three factors: First, massive fraud in the recent election of the incumbent president whose government is fraught with corruption. Secondly, a growing awareness that “nation building” by an outside military force does not work, especially in a country without a tradition of modern government. Lastly, an understanding that has been known to a great many ethnographers and historians for years, is spreading. Afghanistan is not a nation but an assembly of ethnic groups and tribes, some of them divided earlier by outsiders. The Pashtuns are the majority and have always made up core Afghanistan. The Students of Islam or Taliban are Pashtuns or Pathans too and tribal ties are closer than any loyalty to an Afghan state. The situation is further aggravated by the proximity of Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) with its Pashtun inhabitants where the Taliban for years has found sanctuary and support. (No. 471 September 2009) Interim appointment to fill vacant Kennedy US Senate seat is near: The vacant Senate seat of Edward “Ted” M. Kennedy, 77, of Massachusetts, was not filled immediately by an interim appointment by the governor because of lack required legislative authority which made its way through the state legislature. A special election will be held on 19 January 2010 to replace the interim senator. Kennedy died on 25 August of brain cancer. (No. 471 September 2009) Venezuela proposes a union with Belarus: The President of Venezuela, Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías (born 28 July 1954), is continuing on his campaign of gathering South American leaders to irritate the US and spoil its Latin American relations. He is also reaching outside the continent to seek close links to leading communists and to those who are not Washington’s favorite leaders, like those in Iran and Syria. On 9 September, when visiting Belarus, Chávez had a new idea. He told his host that “we should create a new union of republics” between Venezuela and Belarus, adding “not a union like the Soviet Socialist Republics, but one of free republics. Belarus already is a partner in a union with Russia and is seeking closer relations with the European Union (EU). The Venezuelan offer was at best ill timed. (No. 471 September 2009) Bolivia: New constitution takes effect The new constitution became effective on 9 February after voters approved it by 61.4 percent in a referendum on 25 January while 38.6 percent opposed it. (90.2 percent of eligible voters took part.) In a second vote on the maximum size of permitted private ownership of land nearly 81 percent limited it to 5,000 hectares and 19 percent to 10,000 hectares. About one-third of ballots cast dealing with the land issue were blank or invalid. The new constitution of 234 articles provides for
(No. 466 April 2009) Americas: Clearly, the world’s attention was focused on the incoming US Administration of President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Ms. Hillary Clinton. She quickly spread the word of change and cooperation with Allies in Asia, Europe, and Near East but it was the vice president in Munich who proclaimed on behalf of the president a “new tone in US foreign relations.” Equally noteworthy were his remarks on Russia that “it is time to press the reset button and to revisit the many areas where we can and should work together.” (No.465 March 2009) Meanwhile the US is losing diplomatic ground in Bolivia and Ecuador which are weakening the US presence and moving in direction of gaining aid from Russia. (No.465 March 2009)
omy, measures which the president denounced as illegal and threatening the stability of the nation, were approved in the departments of Beni, Pando, Santa Cruz, and Taija. (No. 456 June 2008) Brazil’s president is limited to two four-year terms and the incumbent has given no indication that he would make an exception for himself. Last month, he said that he has not given any thought to who would succeed him in 2009. Now a group of legislators of the governing Workers’ Party (PT) are talking about a third term which has drawn a sharp rebuttal from the president of the Superior Election Tribunal (TSE) on 11 April who said that Brazil needs public men who observe the law. (No. 455 May 2008) Republican Senator John McCain has reached the needed number of delegates to become his party’s nominee for US president. After completing four more primaries on 5 March he obtained 1,224 delegates, 33 more than required and the last rival, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, withdrew. The see-saw contest for delegates continues for Democratic Senators Ms. Hillary Clinton and Obama Barack who are now hoping that the decision will be made in the Pennsylvania primaries on 22 April. (No. 453 March 2008) US election campaign is marked by a high drop-out rate. Primary elections in numerous states to select a candidate for nomination by the Democratic and Republican parties for president have drastically cut the numbers of contenders. Senators Ms. Hillary Clinton and Obama Barack are fighting it out for the Democrats while Senator John McCain is leaving Governor Mike Huckabee behind in the Republican contest. While other parties still have little chance to score meaningfully in national contests, not the least because of nearly total neglect and support by the media, only former candidate Ralph Nader has now declared himself. Unlike in Western Europe, Green parties who certainly have a significant and challenging agenda, remain relegated to a few local races. (No. 452 February 2008) US Secretary of State, Dr. Condoleeza Rice, generally receives a good press at home, especially from Republicans, and is usually well received abroad. Her staff emphatically disagrees. According to a poll commissioned by the American Foreign Service Association, only 18 percent of the diplomats think she is doing a good job, reported the Washington Post on 8 January. Overall, over one third of the respondents found fault with her for not fully defending the staff, not getting enough resources for the department, and for failing to keep the foreign service career attractive. (No. 452 February 2008) The Nunavik region in northern Québec is approaching semi-autonomous status after signing an agreement with the Canadian federal government and the province on 6 December. While remaining subject to the Québec legislature, 11,000 residents in Inuit communities will elect a 21-member assembly and a five-member executive will be in charge of education, health, and transport. (No. 451 January 2008)
Support for Chávez remains high at home, some concerns abroad Former Lieutenant Colonel Hugo Chávez Frías, 53, was first elected President of Venezuela in 1999. His plan to raise the standard of living of millions of people from poverty and breaking the power of an entrenched rich minority earned him overwhelming support at home and many overlooked his failed attempt in 1992 to seize the government by armed force. Government and business in the US opposed him and decried him as a populist. But in the Americas and in other countries quiet admiration grew and the fact that he took on US political interference and economic influence helped Chávez, especially at a time when the democratic credentials of Washington were greatly tarnished. He is still inspiring many Venezuelans and not only supporters to participate in the nation. His followers see him as a charismatic leader who makes them feel that they have a stake in the affairs of their country and his South American colleagues are now waiting whether he can help Colombia with its insurgencies and drug trafficking. Although he has bragged years ago that he would stay president until 2012 or beyond, abroad admiration for the Venezuelan populist is becoming overshadowed by concern not only by his association with the world’s less reputable strongmen from Belarus to China, but over his idea that he must stay in office beyond the constitutional limit, and the intolerance of critics. (No. 447 September 2007)
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