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Except for foreign and economic issues, most concerns in India are regional and local. This is again demonstrated by the pending partition of the state of Andhra Pradesh with the planned creation of 35-million Telangana. Highly dramatized by the ten-day hunger strike of a local politician, the new state is the latest change since 2000 when the number of states grew from 25 to 28. The issue is not only paralyzing political life in Andhra Pradesh but is challenging the governing Indian Congress Party (INC) with renewed calls for statehood by other ethnic groups, foremost in Gorkhaland in the Darjeeling District of West Bengal. (No. 474 December 2009) In Pakistan, the 2007 amnesty known as National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) was not renewed and expired on 28 November. While stating that he is not concerned, President Asif Ali Zardari (born 26 July 2005) of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), could again be charged with corruption. One indication of the president’s worry is that he suddenly transferred control of the military’s nuclear weapons the day before the NRO expired. He maintains that he remain immune from any prosecution. (No. 473 November 2009) AFGHANISTAN President reelected by default After prolonged delay to admitting that the presidential election was marred by massive voter fraud, the president finally agreed to a runoff vote on 7 November. Already tainted by the irregularities and continuing wide spread corruption, the standing of the president was further undercut when his opponent withdrew one day before the second round. While in a way being relieved that “their man” was reelected, the British prime minister and especially the US Administration immediately began to pressure Kabul to assume greater responsibility for security, build up its forces, and clean up corruption in government. (No. 473 November 2009) INDIA Government takes its time in Assam and Nagaland While Indian central and state governments are continuing fighting Maoist insurgents and Islamic militants in Jammu and Kashmir another source of internal unrest is again getting restive. Various groups in Assam and Nagaland which are all pursuing one form of self-determination or another have been in a state of truce as early as 2004 and as late as spring this year. Some rebels have turned in their weapons to police but others are waiting for the central government to open peace talks. Apparently New Delhi is content with the current state or not in any rush to give in to demands for separate states, new territorial divisions, or exclusion of other ethnic groups as demanded by the following:
The general secretary of the governing Indian National Congress (INC) said on 15 October that he does not view the Maoist conflict as a civil war, reported India News. He blames the governments of the states of Chhattisgarh (Bharatiya Janata Party/BJP), Jharkhand (central rule, formerly Jharkhand Liberation Front/JMM), and Orissa (Biju Janata Dal /BJD)for not pursuing programs to uplift the poor. (No. 473 November 2009) Congress places first in three states In state elections in Arunachal Pradesh, Haryana, and Maharashtra on 13 October the governing Indian National Congress (INC) party placed first in all three polls but fell six seats short of majority in Haryana:
Maharashtra INC 82 of 288 seats (Nationalist Congress Party 62 seats,Bharatiya Janata Party 46 seats, and others 49 seats). (No. 473 November 2009) MALDIVES The cabinet of the Maldives took the unusual step of meeting in scuba gear 6 meters underwater on 17 October to call international attention to the plight of low-lying territories facing rising sea levels as a consequence of global climate changes. The size of the South Asian island nation in the Indian Ocean is 187th of 195 countries. (No. 473 November 2009) NEPAL Political turmoil continuing The civil war between government and Maoist insurgents ended in 2006 and until earlier this year new cabinet and constitutional assembly were focused on restoring economy and public order. After leaving the government in May, the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M) has returned not to armed conflict but to political feuding in the streets. Capital and government are again under siege by demonstrators who are blocking access and violations of human rights are rising. (No. 473 November 2009) Japan’s new Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama is moving toward greater attention to East Asia. In an opening statement he said “I stated that the new Japanese government would focus its attention on Asia and that there was no doubt that the coordination among Japan, China, and the ROK would become even stronger. We discussed various topics and, as a concrete example of youth exchange, I proposed that permitting the inter-changeability among universities of credits earned would help strip away the mental wall separating the youths of the three countries. At the end, we issued a joint statement advocating the strengthening of a mutually cooperative relationship.” (No. 472 October 2009) CHINA Regime celebrates 60 years of power The People’s Republic of China (PRC) marked the 60th anniversary of the forcible seizure of the Republic of China (ROC) by the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) and its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on 1 October. Celebrated as National Day it was preceded not only preparations for a two-hour parade to show off the state’s military might, practice sessions for numerous cultural events, but the arrest of those who might have demonstrated for democratic government and political rights. There is clear evidence that the communist leadership is worried—not only about stirrings of self-determination in Tibet and Xinjiang—but by factory workers who are facing loss of jobs, farm workers, and citizens who are fed up by corruption and high-handedness by local party officials. Hence the party’s calls for societal harmony and intra-party democracy: all measures to shore up the rule of the CCP. In China’s history, rulers have lasted for decades and centuries and the PRC may be among them. But keeping in mind short-lived Bolshevik Russia, comments in the Western press that this might be the last round-figure anniversary of the communist regime cannot be shrugged off. (No. 472 October 2009) Japan’s voters threw out the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) after decades of rule and replaced it with a grouping of liberal and ex-LDP politicians. (No. 471 September 2009) Chinese communists discuss strengthening of party: The 204-member 17th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held its 4th Plenary Session on 15-18 September but the expected selection of a vice president was not among its results. Instead the closed-door meetings concentrated on strengthening the party’s dominant position by stressing intra-party democracy. While maintaining centralization, CCP leaders will allow for greater input from basic party units. Another decision was to improve the development of “high-caliber cadres” through competitive and merit-based selection. One of the deliberation’s key phrases was again “social harmony,” which has replaced reliance on yesteryear’s class struggle. It appeals to Chinese national feeling because of its Confucian roots but in CCP terms means no dissent, whether caused by popular grievances or ethnic discrimination. (No. 471 September 2009) Indian book banning reveals both anti-Pakistani and democratic sentiments: A measure of the continuing animosity between India and Pakistan and between secularists and Hindu nationalists is the recent banning of an Indian book on the founder of Pakistan, Muhammad Ali Jinnah. Jinnah - India, Partition, Independence* by Jaswant Singh (born 3 January 1938), a senior politician of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), was published in August but because of its positive evaluation of Jinnah’s role leading up to India’s partition was immediately attacked by Indian nationalists. The state government of Gujarat, ruled by the BJP, went so far as banning the book on 20 August, a step decried by academics and opponents of censorship. The author was expelled from the party although not all the senior leaders supported the move. What irked the Gujarat government were remarks about the role of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, a revered fighter for independence who died in 1950 and who became highly critical of Jinnah’s lead in Direct Action, a campaign that led to widespread violence between Hindus and Muslims across the subcontinent. The Supreme Court of India, on 4 September, upheld the fundamental right of author and publisher, and ruled against Gujarat, lifting the ban. *Published by Rupa & Co., New Delhi, 669 p. $40.74. (No. 471 September 2009) Asia: In the East, China is directing its ire at the US Defense Department which said in its annual report on Chinese military power that the People’s Republic is developing “disruptive” military technologies. It finds that “Much uncertainty surrounds China’s future course, particularly regarding how its expanding military power might be used.” (No.465 March 2009) The propaganda campaign against the Dalai Lama and Tibetan culture is in high gear with mandated celebrations of Serfs Emancipation Day against a background of increased censorship, ban on visiting journalists, and the presence of large security forces in Tibetan areas. (No.465 March 2009) North Korea assumed a threatening tone against the South, banned airliners, closed and reopened borders, and is preparing to launch a long-range missile or communications satellite which has Japan and the US on the alert. (No.465 March 2009) On the subcontinent, the Pakistani government gave in to militants in Swat District by approving the establishment of courts administering Islamic Shar’ia jurisprudence, a step that is even severely criticized in Muslim Pakistan. (No.465 March 2009) Afghanistan’s government is reaching out to Taliban members, at least to those who willing to lay down their arms but NATO and the US are determined to intensify military action in the border area with Pakistan. There are experts who say the foreign military should be withdrawn since the Taliban has been forced out of power. (No.465 March 2009)
China: The Wooing of Taiwan under way Cross-Strait relationship is what the government of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) calls its contacts with Taiwan and on 31 December the communist president offered six proposals for peaceful interaction. The governing Nationalist Party or Kuomintang (KMT) on Taiwan welcomed Beijing’s comments on rapprochement and the Mainland Affairs Council said it would study the feasibility of signing a peace agreement. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which is currently in opposition and its former leader on trial for alleged bribery strongly rejected the overture and said real talks can only be started without any preconditions. The DPP insists on maintaining that Taiwan is an independent state and that its sovereignty belongs to its people. PRC’s president offered these proposals:
In early November, the former Taiwanese president and several DPP supporters filed a lawsuit against Taiwan’s president, charging him with treason because of his alleged collaboration with China. (No. 463 January 2009) Deaths—Korea (DPRK): Pak Song Ch’ol, 95, died of unannounced causes on 28 October. He served as North Korea’s foreign minister (1959-1970) and prime minister (1976-77). While in Japan in the early 1930s he joined the Japan Communist Party (JCP) and after 1936 fought the Japanese in Manchuria where he met Kim Il-song, according to the South Korean Wolkan Kyonghyang journal. He commanded a division during the Korean War and in August 1956 rose to Director of the International Bureau of the Central Committee of the Korean Worker’s Party (KWP). In September 1961 he became a full member of the Central Committee and in June 1964 joined the Political Committee to which he still belonged in September 1992. In December 1977 he became one of the two vice presidents under Kim and remained honorary vice president until at least the end of 2003. (No. 461 November 2008) The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is again tackling the issue of agriculture and the income gap between farmers and urban dwellers. At the 3rd plenary session of the 17th Central Committee on 9-12 October in Beijing a land reform plan was approved which emphasizes the creation of large-scale industrial farms to safeguard self-sufficiency of grain production, allows farmers to trade and mortgage their land rights, and double per capita rural income by 2020. The plan will be submitted to the next session of the National People’s Congress in March 2009 and is expected to be approved. (No. 461 November 2008) Disaffected members of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Gujarat State of India formed the Mahaguharat Janata Party (MJP) on 10 September, reports the Indo-Asian News Service (IANS). Gordhan Zadafia, former Home Minister who was suspended from the BJP, is President and Sunil Oza is General Secretary. The new party is aiming to promote stronger Hindu ways and is currently represented by one deputy in the Lok Sabha. (No. 460 October 2008) Indonesia will go to the polls in 2009 to elect a new legislature and a president. But an Indonesian research institute, LP3ES, of Jakarta, announced in August that at least 20 percent of the 174 million eligible voters may be left out. It proposed that the General Election Commission (KPU) extend voter registration and update its data, reports The Jakarta Post. (No. 460 October 2008) Japan’s new prime minister challenged the major opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to cooperate and endorsed alliance with the United States rather than relying more on the United Nations (UN). Taro Aso (born 20 September 1940) of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is the 11th prime minister and the fourth one in 3 years. Described as controversial and nationalistic, he has served in several ministerial positions. In his first policy speech to the Diet on 29 September he surprised Japanese observers that he singled out the DPJ by name when criticizing its parliamentary conduct. His most important task is to rebuild the economy, followed by revitalizing the regions, global warming, and strengthening the security alliance with the US. (No. 460 October 2008) Korea (DPRK): Elections of the Supreme People's Assembly were scheduled for 5 August however there is no information that they were held or what the results were. (No. 460 October 2008) Cambodia—National Assembly: Ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), 90 of 123 seats, on 27 July. Observers of the European Union said on 29 July that the election fell short of international standards, that the ruling party made widespread use of government resources and dominated media coverage to the disadvantage of the other parties. While technically the voting was running well, the National Election Commission was accused of acting as “a tool for the CPP,” a charge the NEC rejected. (No. 458 August 2008) Indian UPA government wins vote of confidence India’s United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition government received the confidence of the majority of Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament on 22 July. The vote was sought by the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) which had parted company with the UPA over the issue of the civil nuclear agreement with the United States of America: 275 against 256 and 10 abstentions. In the twelve days before the voting, both sides made extraordinary efforts to prevail, later leading to charges of bribery and buying votes. Minor parties were courted, ailing parliamentarians were driven or flown to the capital to cast their votes, and individual loyalties changed. There was considerable political fallout from fateful session: · The Speaker set up a seven-member committee to look into claims by three BJP members that they were bribed to stay away. · Speaker Somnath Chatterjee, a Communist member for 40 years, was expelled from the CPI-M on 23 July for failing to give up his post before the vote. · The CPI-M formed an opposition alliance on 23 July of ten former allies of the UPA, six regional parties and four left wing parties, incl. the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). · Eight BJP members of parliament who had switched sides in the vote were expelled from the party on 23 July. (No. 458 August 2008) The Diet on 27 June approved a resolution recognizing Japan’s aboriginal minority, the Ainu, as indigenous people who have their own language, religion, and culture. The Ainu are native to Hokkaido Prefecture and were forced to assimilate, beginning in 1869. (No. 457 July 2008) Kazakhstan celebrates Capital Day: On the occasion of the 10th anniversary of making Astana the nation’s capital, the legislature on 23 June approved 6 July as Day of the Capital. It is also the birthday of the state’s president. (No. 457 July 2008) King Gyanendra of Nepal before leaving his palace in Kathmandu on 11 June told his countrymen that he has no intention of leaving the country and promised to “contribute to the independence and prosperity of the Nepali nation.” He said that all his properties are in Nepal and have all been nationalized. (No. 457 July 2008) A referendum on a constitution tailored to the needs of Burma’s military junta was held on 10 May in the middle of devastation caused earlier by cyclone Nargis. Additional voting was scheduled on 24 May but on 29 May, the junta announced that 98.12 percent of eligible voters took part and approved the draft by 92.48 percent and ”enacted” it. (No. 456 June 2008) Indonesia will hold elections for the 550-seat House of Representatives on 8 or 9 April 2009. The General Election Commission (KPU) announced on 31 May that 51 parties have passed verification tests, including the 16 currently holding parliamentary seats. Another 11 parties failed the tests and two parties did not register, reports The Jakarta Post. (No. 456 June 2008) Nepal became a federal democratic republic on 28 May, ending 238 years of royal rule. The newly elected Constituent Assembly opened on 27 May with 575 of 601 members present. The king was given 15 days to vacate the royal palace but later was provided with a smaller residence. The assembly, an interim body, is charged with drafting a constitution during the next two years. (No. 456 June 2008) Not every official in the People’s Republic belongs to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) which should not lead to the assumption that non-communists occupy powerful positions or are accorded extraordinary influence. Nevertheless, government and party lately are stressing the presence of those who hold responsible jobs at different levels and who are not party members. There are more than 31,000 non-communists working as officials at or above the county level, including some 6,000 in government and judicial bodies, reported the People’s Daily on 12 April. At the provincial level, 205 non-communists hold positions of vice governor or vice chairman of provincial People’s Congress Standing Committees. Over half of them were elected earlier this year. (No. 455 May 2008) While the main opposition and national Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is sensing victory at India’s polls next year, the political future of the son of Sonia Gandhi, leader of the governing Indian National Congress (INC), briefly reappeared in April. Rahul Gandhi (born 19 June 1970) is being talked about by some Congress leaders as future prime minister but on 26 April he made it clear that Manmohan Singh is his leader. Not surprisingly, while respecting her son’s stand, Ms. Gandhi has taken strong issue with the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), who started a campaign to become the next prime minister. Although she was elected with the help of Congress, the UP government is now being blamed for not providing enough aid to poor people in her state. Before the cabinet reshuffle in April, Rahul Gandhi was offered a ministerial position—his mother would have liked him to be in government—but he turned it down since he is already serving as General Secretary of the party with responsibility for the Youth Congress and the National Student Union (NSU). The BJP which calls him “yuvraj” or prince, a term he finds insulting, says the self-denial of the son to turn down a ministerial position is nothing but an attempt to build up his image. (No. 455 May 2008) Cabinet and defense changes in Japan are not imminent. The prime minister on 26 April ruled out any cabinet change before the Group of Eight summit although there is pressure to boost his public acceptance. Likewise there is considerable opposition within the newly designated Ministry of Defense and the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) of the minister’s reported plan to assume direct command of the SDF. A draft plan on reorganizing defense will be presented to a government panel, reported The Japan Times on 9 April. Its main feature would remove the head of the Joint Staff Office, i.e., the military staff, and the commanders of the three SDF branches from the chain of command, and make them assistants of the minister. (No. 455 May 2008) Calendar: Turkmenistan returned the names of months and days to international standards on 24 April after the president abolished the calendar renamed by his predecessor. (No. 455 May 2008) The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) (CPN-M) gained the greatest number of the 601 seats in the Constitutional Assembly on 10 April but not a majority. The Assembly is to draft the kingdom’s next constitution but nevertheless the leader of CPN-M is saying that he would lead the next government. Since the constitutional body does not elect the president, Prachanda (born 11 December 1954) is premature in his announcement. But he is on track to fulfill his goal to make the country a republic next month. The king who has been asked by the CPN-M to step down voluntarily and go into exile, rejected such demands on 21 April although the Maoists have threatened him with a trial and severe sentence. (No. 455 May 2008) Indonesia’s province of West Papua (Papua Barat) may finally become legal. It was created in February 2003 after splitting off from Papua, formerly Irian Jaya. When the Constitutional Court in 2003 declared the establishment illegitimate, the new province remained because it was already in existence. On 5 March, Indonesia’s president announced that the government would issue emergency regulations within two months to legitimize the province and the position of its Governor Abraham Atururi. (No. 454 April 2008) China’s legislature approves new vice president and cabinet Government is restructured and five super ministries are created The two important sessions that were held in March were of greater significance domestically than abroad. Except for the restructuring of the government and its attendant reshuffling that was expected. Still the top leadership has not changed and was reelected for a second and final five-year term. From 3 -14 March, the advisory 11th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) held its first and annual session in Beijing. The country’s legislature, the 11th National People's Congress (NPC), met for its first session from 5-18 March. Some 2,000 members of the 11th National Committee attended and first received a report on the work of the committee, delivered by the Chairman of the preceding National Committee, Jia Qinglin (born March 1940). On the following days they attended the opening of the legislative session as non-voting delegates, discussed the work of the government, and elected new leaders, incl. 298 members of the Standing Committee of the National Committee: Chairman Jia Qinglin (reelected), 25 vice chairmen, and Secretary General Qian Yunlu. National People's Congress The highlight for the 2,967NPC deputies who attended was the report on the work of the government, presented by Premier Wen Jiabao during the opening session. He stressed the concern about the upward movement of prices and said governments at all levels must keep prices stable to allow further improvement of the economic structure, productivity, energy efficiency, and environmental protection. He touched on increasing allocations to agriculture and rural areas, food and product safety especially for exports, and introduction of a shareholding system. The issue of Taiwan was not overlooked, and Wen said the government is working for the early resumption of cross-Straits talks on the basis of the one-China principle. No major legislation was introduced except for the plan to restructure the central departments under the State Council, i.e., the cabinet. Five new, so-called “super ministries” are planned:
The new cabinet will be composed of 27 ministries and commissions, one less than the current government. A total of 15 departments are affected by the changes and the ministries of communications, personnel, and supervision are being merged into other ministries. The State Food and Drug Administration is placed under the Ministry of Health. Responsibility for studying and preparing policy for energy development will be shifted from various ministries to a new National Energy Commission. The day-to-day commission work will be handled by a national energy bureau under the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), reports People’s Daily. Leadership changes The list of names of members of the government, the Central Military Commission, and NPC officials which was approved by the Politburo and the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in October [IO 2007, p. 3430], was presented to the legislature on 12 March for its discussion and was approved on 15 March together with the restructuring plan. Hu Jintao was reelected President and Chairman of the PRC Central Military Commission (CMC) but the most significant personnel change was the elevation of Xi Jinping (born June 1953) to Vice President of the People’s Republic. In five years he may rise to lead party and state. Xi replaces Zeng Qinghong (born September 1939) who has held the position since March 2003. He is a loyal and active supporter of Hu but when he was removed from the Central Committee in October because of age it was clear that his office would be filled at the end of his term in March. Xi, trained as a chemical engineer, joined the party in 1974 and has held numerous government and party offices and rose to Secretary of the CPC Municipal Committee of Shanghai in March 2007. He is a member of the 17th Central Committee of the CPC, its Politburo and Secretariat, and President of the CPC Central Party School. Wen Jiabao was reconfirmed as Premier of the State Council on 16 March and Wang Shengjun (born October 1946) was elected President of Supreme People’s Court, succeeding Xiao Yang (born August 1938) who has held the position since 1998. On the following day when the session closed, 27 ministerial members of the State Council and five state councilors were approved At the fifth plenary meeting of the session, on 15 March, 161 members and officials of the 11th NPC Standing Committee, i.e., the permanent legislative leadership organ, were elected: Chairman Wu Bangguo (born July 1941) (reelected), 13 vice chairmen, and Secretary General Li Jianguo. (No. 454 April 2008) Elections are planned in Afghanistan in 2009 and voter registration and planning need to begin, reports the Secretary General of the United Nations (UN) on 10 March. There are 249 seats in the House of People of the National Assembly and councils in 39 provinces and 376 districts. Of the latter, 36 in east, southeast, and south remain inaccessible to officials because of strong presence of Taliban radical forces. Equally serious is the fragility of political, economic, and social institutions, poor governance, and limited progress on human rights, notes the UN. Aside from the continuing insecurity, even in the capital, is the notion by some Afghans that human rights contradict local traditions and are a “luxury Afghanistan cannot afford.” (No. 454 April 2008) Without even a law governing Burmese elections in 2010, the military rulers have already made clear that Aung San Suu Kyi, 62, of the National League for Democracy (NLD) will be barred. Although elected legally in 1990 but prevented from exercising her rights for the past 18 years, mainly under house arrest, she is being disqualified because she is married to a foreigner. The junta is trying to appear democratic by presenting a new constitution and submitting it to a referendum in May but without any public discussion of its contents. (No. 453 March 2008) India is faced with demands for new states. When three new states were formed in 2000 it was clear that various regions and ethnic groups would continue to press their demands for statehood. In Tamil Nadu, two Hindu groups, the Moovendar Munnetra Kazhagam (MVMK) and the a-political Veera Vanniyar Pervai (VVP), are demanding that the state be split in northern and southern parts. Gurkhas, the majority population in Darjeeling, West Bengal, are in the process of obtaining autonomy. But now the Gurkha Liberation Forum (GLF) opposes the autonomy plan and demands a separate state, BBC reported on 19 February. (No. 453 March 2008) WORK STARTS ON NEW INDIAN STATE CAPITAL By 2010, Chhattisgarh will move its state capital 20 km away from its current location at Raipur to Naya Raipur, at Rakhi Village. The foundation stone for the capital complex was laid on 21 January, reported the Indian Express. In addition to government facilities, the new capital will feature hospitals, shopping malls, space for commercial offices, a law university and various recreation areas, all to be built on an area occupied by some 20 villages. The development authority stresses the environment friendly nature of the new city which was inspired by the new Malaysian capital of Putrajaya. Chhattisgarh became the 26th Indian state in November 2000, composed of Chhattisgarh-speaking districts in southeastern Madhya Pradesh. (No. 452 February 2008)
Malawi switched its support from Taiwan to the Chinese People’s Republic in late December. A Taiwanese liaison office was opened in Libya this month but it remains doubtful that the relationship will grow into full diplomatic ties. (No. 452 February 2008) Nominally, Indonesian regents are elected but Tangerang made national history. On 21 January, the regent was elected directly for the first time. Of the three contenders, the incumbent placed first. There are 349 regencies within the country’s 33 provinces. Tangerang of Banten Province is located near the capital. (No. 452 February 2008) Lal Krishna Advani (born 8 November 1927) would become India’s prime minister if his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) should regain the majority in the next parliamentary elections in 2009. The country’s main Hindu party selected its leader, the former deputy prime minister, as candidate for prime minister on 10 December. There is talk that the governing Indian Congress Party (INC) might call for earlier elections. (No. 451 January 2008) Pakistan’s elections delayed Bhutto assassination deepens instability The political situation In Pakistan has gone from bad to worse with the assassination of a major opposition party leader, Ms. Benazir Bhutto, 54, on 27 December in Rawalpindi. Amidst demonstrations and unrest it had become clear that legislative elections could not be held on 8 January as planned but had to be delayed until 18 February. Even before and following the undemocratic presidential election [IO 2007, p. 3433], the nomination of Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) for a seat in the 342-seat National Assembly was rejected by the Election Commission because of conviction in two cases. His appeal also was rejected on 19 December. Thus the two major opposition leaders and critics of the president will not be part of the new legislature. Judges, including 13 members of the Supreme Court, who also refused to approve the president’s suspension of the constitution on 3 November, were forced into retirement on 5 December. Not unusual, at the time of death, politicians, press, and public vie with each other in highlighting the positive. So it was no wonder that mention of widespread corruption and encouragement of fundamentalists, especially in Kashmir, under Bhutto’s two terms, was crowded out by laudatory comments. The same applies to her rival Sharif but it should be pointed out that she succeeded, at least in the UK and in the United States, to portray herself as a fighter for democracy and convinced the present US administration, undeservedly, that she should head Pakistan’s next government. (No. 451 January 2008)
China’s communist congress boosts Hu Jintao Elevates possible heir, removes potential rivals Hu Jintao, 64, remains at the head of state and party, the makeup of the leading party organs are changed, and policies on economic growth, fighting corruption, and striving for social and party harmony approved. These are the results of three meetings of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held in October: 9-12 October: 7th Plenum of the outgoing 16th Central Committee; 15-21 October: 17th National Congress of the CCP in Beijing; and 22 October: 1st Plenum of the new 17th Central Committee. While the 7th Plenum approved the General Secretary’s work report and the draft amendments to the party constitution, some 2,200 delegates from regional and municipal CCP branches held the 17th National Congress to elect a new Central Committee and Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, approve amendments, and accept Hu’s report and roadmap for “party building.” The election of members of the new party organs was by secret ballot but the list of candidates was prepared by a 237-member presidium selected by the delegates. The new 17th Central Committee is composed of 204 full and 167 alternate members (16th CC: 198 full and 158 alternate members). Full membership is made up of 95 reelected members, 44 promoted from alternate membership, and 65 new members. Alternate membership is composed of 43 reelected and 124 new members. A total of 44 were promoted to full membership and 72 replaced. The 17th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) includes 127 members (16th CCDI: 121 members). The national congress which normally meets every five years [IO 2002, p. 2084] did not reelect 102 members of the Central Committee, incl. 9 members of the Politburo, three of whom were close allies of former General Secretary Jiang Zemin who also is not longer a member: Chen Liangyu, formerly Secretary Shanghai Municipal Committee CCP and Mayor, expelled by the Politburo on 25 September 2006; *Huang Ju, Vice Premier, died on 2 June 2007; Luo Gan, State Councilor; Wu Guanzheng, Secretary Shandong Provincial Committee CCP; Wu Yi Ms., State Councilor; *Zeng Peiyan, Vice Premier; *Zeng Qinghong, Vice President; and Zhang Lichang, Secretary Tianjin Municipal Committee CCP. *Jiang ally Leadership changes: Hu strengthening his position The session of the 1st Plenum on 22 October was the place where significant changes of the party leadership were completed. Among the significant changes were the addition of Xi Jinping (born June 1953), Secretary Shanghai Municipal Committee CPC, and Li Keqiang (born July 1955), Secretary Liaoning Provincial Committee CPC and Chairman, Standing Committee Liaoning Provincial People’s Congress, to the Standing Committee of the Politburo, and the removal of Vice President Zeng Qinghong (born July 1939). The first two are believed to be groomed to succeed Hu, while the vice president is a potential rival. He will remain in his state position until March when the government will be changed. (No. 450 December 2007) Pakistan’s coup leader turns civilian president Stability and tranquility evade country The reelection of Pervez Musharraf, 64, on 6 October without serious opposing candidates cannot gloss over the fact that the army commander seized the elected civilian government by force on 26 June 2001 and in its wake left political forces stymied and weakened and the constitutional foundation wanting. After having made several promises earlier, the general finally resigned as Army Chief of Staff on 28 November, one day before he was installed for a new five-year term as President. Musharraf’s lopsided and undemocratic election which was supported abroad by the US president will continue to saddle the country with the unhealthy effects of the military’s deep entrenchment in politics. The situation is not helped by the divided leadership of the main political parties whose two former prime ministers both have records of corruption and lack of accomplishments. Meanwhile insurgency, social unrest and tribal conflict in Baluchistan, the North West Frontier Province, in Swat and Waziristan, the spillover from Taliban in Afghanistan, and the dispute with the Indian neighbor over Kashmir accompany Musharraf’s rule as they have for the past six years. On 2 October, Musharraf appointed his ally Army Lieutenant General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani to succeed him as Chief of Army Staff (COAS) if he is elected and resigns. Kiani headed Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) from 2004 until September 2007. Government, on 2 October, agreed to drop corruption charges against Ms. Benazir Bhutto (PPP). Musharraf signed the decree on 5 October but on 12 October the Supreme Court announced that it would hear five petitions challenging the amnesty. Bhutto returned on 18 October but her frenetic reception by supporters was overshadowed by a massive bombing attack in which at least 136 people were killed. The former prime minister vowed to end military dictatorship and then became the subject of renewed acts of retaliation by the government, incl. a travel ban and temporary house arrest. One day before the election, on 5 October, the Supreme Court decided against postponing the presidential election but ruled that no official winner could be announced before the court could rule whether Musharraf’s candidacy while holding the position of Chief of Army Staff is legal and that the court would continue deliberations 11 days after the election. The election On 6 October, an electoral college made up of 1,170 members of the federal parliament and deputies from the legislatures of the four provinces and two territories were to chose one of the following candidates to become the next president: Wajihuddin Ahmad, former Supreme Court judge Makhdoom Amin Fahim (PPP) General Pervez Musharraf (PML) Muhammad Mian Soomro, Chairman of the Senate Ms. Faryal Talpur, Deputy Mayor of Nawabshah Only about 58 percent of the electors cast their votes. The election was boycotted by the All Parties Democratic Movement, 86 federal deputies resigned, and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) abstained. Overall result: Pervez Musharraf (PML) 671 votes Wajihuddin Ahmad 8 Void 6 Total 685 Results in the federal parliament with 442 members: Pervez Musharraf (PML) 252 votes Wajihuddin Ahmad 2 Others 3 Total 257 Two candidates, former Supreme Court judge Wajihuddin Ahmad and Makhdoom Amin Fahim (PPP), filed appeals in Supreme Court to declare Musharraf’s nomination ineligible while he heads the army. Some 86 opposition members of the National Assembly resigned on 2 October in protest against Musharraf’s candidacy. After the election After continuing protests and street demonstrations against the election of the general and days before the Supreme Court was to announce its ruling, Musharraf imposed a state of emergency on 3 November. The constitution was suspended, Parliament was dissolved, access to the Supreme Court blocked, a new chief judge appointed, and telecommunications with the capital cut. During the following days over 1,000 people were arrested, not street demonstrators who caused turmoil, but political opponents. The chief judge who was fired was placed under house arrest, an action that did not keep him from denouncing the “soft coup” and called on the people to “rise up” and restore the constitution. An ultimatum issued by Bhutto and outside admonitions, especially from the US government, were ignored but on 20 November some 3,400 critics of the regime were released, incl. human rights observers and journalists. Nevertheless, on 23 November the Commonwealth suspended Pakistan until it returns to constitutional rule and democracy is restored. On 19 and 22 November, the newly appointed judges of the Supreme Court cleared the way for Musharraf to assume the presidency, by ruling that candidacy and reelection were valid. Two days later, the government also allowed the other political rival, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), to return from seven years in exile. He immediately filed his nomination papers for the general elections in February. (No. 450 December 2007)
Taiwan--a threat to China!? Taiwan is not under the control of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and acts like a de facto independent state. It lost its membership in the United Nations (UN) in 1971 but is persistently pursuing membership, always with same result: rejection by China as on 21 July. Since then, China is again raising the tension. First declaring that any declaration of independence by the island state would be met by military force. Beijing is now declaring that an independent Taiwan would be a threat to the national security of China. Taiwan, of course, is not the least bit interested in or capable of waging war against the mainland but the PRC would-be aggressor is telling the world that the defending small island is threatening it. The same logic is at work at home, with good reason one might add, where any dissent by the people, even a minor complaint about arbitrary action in a village, is seen as a threat to the rule of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The human rights organization Freedom House of New York and Washington condemned the US Government on 10 September for being inconsistent in its commitment to democracy and freedom by pressuring Taiwan to abandon plans for a referendum on applying for a UN seat. (No. 447 September 2007)
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