Recent drought, flooding, and conflict are still affecting life in numerous regions of Ethiopia, the United Nations reported on 18 January. Last year, condition in the south was listed as a humanitarian emergency with severe lack of food access, death due to hunger, malnutrition and irreversible livestock asset stripping (UN IPC Level 4). In the northern and central parts of the country the situation ranged from an acute food and livelihood crisis to borderline food insecurity   (UN IPC Levels 3 and 2). Affected regions include Afar, Amhara, Benishangul-Gumuz, Diredawa, Gambella, Harar, Oromia, Somali Region, Southern Nations, Nationalities and People's Region (SNNPR) and Tigray.

*Ivory Coast’s situation has improved compared to a year ago when forces of the elected president and the ex-president had rendered the country unstable….

*Boko Haram attacks on government and police and widening to non-Muslims by militants of the Islamic sect are raising the country’s security concern….

Weak government, internal conflict, and famine still mark Somalia as a failed state. Some areas are emerging from control by the major Islamic anti-government force, are not coming under control of the government, but pass into the hands of clans and their militias. Some parts have emerged from a state of famine while others remain critical. The country is already divided into parts in which al-Shaba’ab, the Movement of Youth, the major Islamic anti-government force is contesting the corrupt and weak Transitional Federal Government (TFG) while Puntland and Somaliland too remain outside the TFG’s control and operate autonomously, if not independently.  Troops of African Union (AU) member states are succeeding in pushing back al-Shaba’ab, especially in the south and along the eastern border but clans and warlords are again taking over and carving up territory and occupying it with their own militias.

*South Sudan target of exploitation: With gaining independence from Sudan on 9 July, the new nation not only became saddled with organizing a news state, inheriting a continuing conflict over Southern Kordofan, but became a valuable target for exploitation of its natural resources….

***

 Narcotics threatening state: Attacks, extortion, kidnapping, and murder committed by various crime and drug cartels, including Sinaloa and Los Zetas, are continuing unabated in Mexico. To underline how serious the government considers the situation, President Felipe Calderon warned on 4 December that organized crime poses an “open threat” to democracy. He reiterated his commitment to fight the drug wars with the help of troops. Recent attempts (in July) by drug gangs to manipulate elections is new and has become a worrying fact, the president noted.

President updates defense strategy:  In the future, the US military will focus on East Asia and the Pacific Ocean and on the Middle East. Its joint forces will be smaller, ready, and well-equipped. The continual debate about ability to fight more than one war at a time was finessed by the defense secretary when he said the military must be able to fight in several conflicts at the same time and be able to defeat more than one adversary at a time. The president had ordered the review at a time when limits on federal and defense spending are called for by economic and financial imbalances. The unclassified version of strategic guidance for US military forces in the 21^st Century was presented by the president on 5 January.

***

Concern over an economic collapse in Afghanistan when foreign troops leave is shared by several leaders of neighboring countries. They fear not only further breakdown in security but new waves of Afghans fleeing because of fear of retribution, uncertainty, and unemployment. Among those voicing disquiet was the former President of Kyrgyzstan, Ms. Roza Otunbayeva. She noted on 25 November, that she feared Afghanistan had grown so accustomed to protracted economic deprivation that it could not cope with a recession in 2014 as forewarned by the World Bank.

Opium poppies grown in Afghanistan certainly contribute to the flow of illegal drugs to other parts of the world and the increase of cultivation by seven percent in 2011 concerns not only the government but also the United Nations (UN) and receiving countries. Often overlooked is the fact that a considerable amount of the drugs are consumed in country which has the highest opium consumption rate in the world at 2.65 percent. The Ministry of Counter Narcotics, on 11 October 2011, reported

·        GDP share of opium cultivation 9 percent;

·        Cultivation area 131,000 hectares (123,000 ha in 2010);

·        Eradication rate +65 percent in 2011 (3 percent of total area);

·        Opium production 5,800 tons (3,600 tons in 2010).

     

*Lokpal anti-corruption bill stalling: India’s upper house of parliament, the Rajya Sabha, on 29 December adjourned without voting on the controversial anti-corruption Ombudsman or Lokpal and Lokayukta Bill 2011….

A three-way tangle in Pakistan: Two seemingly unrelated issues are involving army, president, prime minister, and the supreme court with result that the head of government is in contempt of court and that talk—and fear—about another military takeover is rampant. Clear is that Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, on 17 January, was held in contempt by the Supreme Court for having failed to reopen prosecution of President Asif Ali Zardari for alleged corruption. The prime minister has explained that the court’s order to reopen corruption prosecution of the president was ignored by the government because it understands that he enjoys immunity.

The hearing has been adjourned until February. But Gilani’s path to the court started in October when an American-Pakistani businessman claimed that the former Pakistani ambassador in Washington had asked him to send a memorandum to the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, ostensibly to ask help for the prime minister to stop a possible military takeover. Army and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) asked the Supreme Court to investigate, a move which the prime minister criticized and condemned as a breach of conduct. The ambassador was recalled from the US, denied any role in the affair but was ordered to stay at home after the government took his passport. The businessman was asked to testify in Islamabad but fearing for his safety so far has turned down the request. To complicate matters further, the prime minister on 11 January dismissed the defense secretary, the number two in the defense ministry, for submitting army and ISI statements to the court without government approval. (It does not help that the official, a retired general, is close to the army chief.) Another facet, editorialized by The Washington Post on 26 January, is that the chief justice not only seems to be close to the military although he helped to end the last military rule, but has been determined since 2009 to prosecute the president, and has strong political ambitions himself.

***

EU membership: In, waiting, out? Croatia will join the European Union as its 28^th member on 1 July 2013. A majority of 66 percent in a lackluster referendum held on 22 January affirmed readiness although only 43 percent of eligible voters took part. The European Parliament (EP), on 1 December, approved the admission by a vote of 564 against 38 and 32 abstentions and the European Council gave its approval on 5 December. Membership also requires ratification of the accession treaty by all members.

Serbian membership is handicapped by its conflict with Kosovo and its lacking readiness to use its influence with the Serb population in the north to create a peaceful situation. In early December, the German Federal Chancellor said she would not support Serbia's candidacy. On 9 December, the European Council decided likewise, but the Council President indicated that the EU might grant candidate status in February 2012.

Becoming undemocratic: The authoritarian and nationalistic bent of Hungary’s prime minister and his ruling Federation of Young Democrats-Civic Alliance (FiDeSz-MPSz) has led them on a collision course with the European Commission and the Parliament. A combination of threatened opt-out from the Eurozone, new restrictive media law, threat to the independence of the central bank and courts, introduction of the new Constitution on 1 January, and capped by failure to reduce the budget deficit has led the EC to launch infringement procedures on 17 January. The EU insists on respect for the values of democracy and its treaties. By month’s end, the prime minister has signaled changes, especially as concerns the central bank. Clearly, the union is not interested in losing Hungary, but as its censure of Austria in 2000 showed, it could impose sanctions to obtain adherence.

*Germany is receiving a lot of attention internationally, especially in connection with the future of the euro and the Chancellor's ideas about political structures to regulate it. At home, however, there are at least two unpleasant matters….

Scotland, part of the United Kingdom, is serious this time about pursuing independence. On 24 June 2014, a referendum will be held in which voters will be asked: "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?" The British prime minister noted that Parliament has the power to approve the referendum but the First Minister of Scotland has rejected the argument, saying it is up to the voters in Scotland to decide.

***

*Iraqi sectarian conflict continues: Political leaders are complaining that the Prime Minister is expanding his constitutional position in relation to other officials in the executive….

***

Aboriginal protesters descend on Prime Minister: Barely a week after a panel of experts recommended that the Constitution be changed to recognize the First Peoples of Australia, prime minister and opposition leader had to be hustled to safety from a violent protest on Australia Day, 27 January. The two leaders were presenting medals at a ceremony near Parliament House in the capital when violent demonstrators from the nearby Aboriginal tent embassy tried to barge into the event shouting " Shame" and “Racist.”

*Constitutional crisis in Papua New Guinea is leading to limited mutiny: The uneasy situation which developed in December over who is in charge of the government led to a short-lived mutiny on 26 January by a small group of soldiers led by a brigadier who claimed to be the new military commander. He said his aim was to make sure that the Supreme Court's ruling on the legitimate government is followed….

 

Taking the World’s Pulse

Political freedom: Around the globe, the number of countries in which civil liberties and political rights slightly declined in 2011 over those that showed progress. Any survey of the progress of liberty remains skewed. Militants around the world continue to resort to violent action against governments and fellow human beings for reasons ranging from acceptable to despicable, from reaching for self-determination, fighting repression to ethnic, religious, and social goals, to criminal endeavors. Even governments in the free world fighting militants are turning to measures, especially against Arabs and Muslims, which are at best applied arbitrarily, and often clash with democratic values and international law. In some states of the not-so-free world, application of these measures is even worse. There is another reason for uneven progress: Governance or better the lack of it or its defects. Nearly all of the countries lacking in civil liberties and political rights have expertly written constitutions guaranteeing rights but for cultural and historical reasons lag behind in fully understanding democratic rights. In countries ruled by single individuals or parties or by cliques, the overriding goal is to keep and stay in power, often with the aim of enriching themselves.

For six years running, global declines in freedom outweighed earlier gains and the number of countries designated shown as Free in 2011 stands at 87, representing 45 percent of the world’s 195 countries and 43 percent of the world population (unchanged since 2010). In a year marked by intensified repression against human rights defenders and civic activists, significant declines for freedom were registered in 25 countries, including an overall deterioration for freedom in the Middle East and North Africa region, reports Freedom House of Washington in its annual survey*.

A total of 26 countries showed significant declines in 2011, more than double the 12 countries exhibiting noteworthy gains. The number of electoral democracies increased by two to 117, still below the 2005 figure of 123. In addition, authoritarian regimes like those in China, Egypt, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela continued to step up repressive measures with little significant resistance from the democratic world.

 

Regional Patterns

Countries:                               Free                Partly Free                  Not Free

Africa                                        9                    21                                19

Americas                                24                    10                                  1

Asia                                         16                    15                                  8

Europe/Eurasia                      37                    10                                  7

Middle East &   North Africa   1                      4                                13

 

Freedom House highlights the following regional changes:

Africa: The Gambia experienced the most notable decline over the past year. Its status moved from Partly Free to Not Free due to a presidential election that was judged neither free nor fair. Djibouti, Ethiopia, Malawi, Sudan, and Uganda also saw declines. Improvements were noted in Ivory Coast, Niger, and Zambia.

Americas: Nicaragua suffered a decline in political rights and lost its electoral democracy status due to irregularities in advance of and during the presidential election, which gave Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega another term in office. Declines were also noted in Ecuador and Puerto Rico, while improvements were seen in Guatemala.

Asia: The Asia-Pacific region has been the only one to record steady overall gains in the majority of indicators over the past five years. In 2011, progress was noted in Burma, Indian Kashmir, Singapore, and Thailand. Declines were registered in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, as well as in China, where authorities carried out a major campaign of repression in the wake of the Arab uprisings.

Europe: In the face of the most serious economic crisis in the postwar period and significant political unrest as a result of austerity measures, the countries of Western Europe and North America remained unwilling or unable to develop effective policies to ensure assimilation and fair treatment of immigrants. In parts of Europe, far-right parties with an anti-immigrant and anti–European Union perspective continued to gather strength. While these countries generally maintained their existing democratic standards during 2011, Greece suffered a notable decline due to the installation of an unelected technocrat as prime minister. Italy’s similar experience was offset by a reduction in media concentration associated with the departure of Silvio Berlusconi as prime minister.

The region of Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia saw notable declines in two promising young democracies: Ukraine and Hungary. Albania, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan also declined, while improvements were recorded in Slovakia.

Middle East and North Africa: Tunisia rose from among the worst-performing Middle Eastern countries to achieve Partly Free status and a place on the list of electoral democracies. While Egypt and Libya remained Not Free, with the latter still far behind the former, both countries saw major improvements in 2011. Declines were noted in Bahrain, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen, most of which stemmed from the backlash against the year’s uprisings. Israel, the only Free country in the region, also suffered a decline due to a series of laws and policies that posed threats to freedom of expression and civil society.

At the bottom: Of the 48 countries designated as Not Free, nine have been given the survey’s lowest possible rating of 7 for both political rights and civil liberties. These worst-rated countries represent a narrow range of systems and cultures. One—North Korea—is a one-party, Marxist-Leninist regime. Two—Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—are Central Asian countries ruled by dictators with roots in the Soviet period. Sudan is ruled by a leadership that has elements of both radical Islamism and a traditional military junta. The remaining worst-rated states are Equatorial Guinea, a highly corrupt regime with one of the worst human rights records in Africa; Eritrea, an increasingly repressive police state; Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy with severe social controls; Syria, a dictatorship in the midst of a bloody crackdown; and Somalia, a failed state. The two worst-rated territories in the survey are Tibet—under Chinese jurisdiction—and Western Sahara, which is controlled by Morocco. An additional 8 countries and territories received scores that were slightly above those of the worst-ranked countries, with ratings of 6,7 or 7,6 for political rights and civil liberties: Belarus, Burma, Chad, China, Cuba, Laos, Libya, and South Ossetia.

*Freedom in the World 2012, Washington DC: Freedom House, January 2012.

*National Leaders

*Survey: Conflicts and Tension--Sources of instability

*Documentation--USA: A Challenging Global Security Environment (excerpts).

(Issue contains 30 pages)