New Page 1

Almost a footnote after the last-minute acceptance of the Treaty of Lisbon in October but certainly an institutional milestone: The treaty, the quasi-constitution of the European Union (EU) came into force on 1 December. It is also the starting point for the terms office of the new permanent Union President and the first High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. (No. 474 December 2009)

Austria’s government turned one year old in early December and gave birth to a new custom, an annual account by the Federal Chancellor from the Hofburg, the Imperial Palace in Vienna. After lagging behind in keeping promises, the head of the government announced help for those in need on 2 December, including 50,000 jobs in care centers, child care, and schools. He repudiated right-wing attacks against non-Christians and while critics found little new in the address, the chancellor’s reassuring tone and absence of political attacks was welcomed. (No. 474 December 2009)

Kazakhstan is assuming the chairmanship of the organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on 1 January amid continuing doubts about its commitment to democracy and civil liberties. (No. 474 December 2009)

Two leaders in Italy and Pakistan are concerned about their jobs. Italy’s Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi (born 29 September 1936) of the People of Freedom (Pdl) party has vast business holdings and is obviously not worried about becoming unable to pay his bills. But after at least 12 attempts to keep himself out of the reach of courts and immune from prosecution, a trial of the prime minister accused of bribing a British lawyer is scheduled to open on 4 December. (No. 473 November 2009)

The Union’s latest reform through the Treaty of Lisbon finally went into effect and on 1 December a president and a quasi-foreign minister will assume office. It was not a certainty that last hurdles would be overcome in time although on 2 October Irish voters reversed last year’s disapproval but not without some concessions. The second referendum was approved by 67 percent against nearly 33 percent in opposition. About 58 percent of eligible turned out. Ireland’s president ratified the treaty on 16 October. Poland too was late in accepting the proposed changes but its president ratified on 10 October leaving only the Czech Republic to complete the process. All through October its president found ways to delay, even hoping for a British election and a reversal by the Conservative Party. His conservative supporters submitted new petitions to the highest court but eventually the path was cleared and on 3 November the president reluctantly signed. Neighboring Slovakia also tried to undercut the ratification process when it demanded a similar concession that was granted to the Czechs. But the head of the European Commission decisively rejected reopening negotiations and that hurdle was cleared.

During the same time the Commission issued its annual progress report on enlargement and the prospective candidates for membership:

Turkey’s progress with accession negotiations hinges on consolidation of fundamental rights and the rule of law. (No. 473 November 2009)

The country is currently divided into 22 regions and 96 departments, excluding 6 overseas entities. One of tasks on the president’s agenda is territorial reform leading to fewer regions. A commission headed by a former prime minister proposed replacing the regions with 11 metropolitan centers but some current regional councils are loath to give up local power and posts. The National Assembly is scheduled to examine reform of the administrative divisions in December but the reform will now be spread out until 2012. (No. 473 November 2009)

The investigation into who started the conflict between Georgia and Russia on 7 August 2008 was commissioned by the European (EU). An independent expert commission, led by Ms. Heidi Tagliavini, a Swiss diplomat, submitted its report on 30 September. The two main findings were that Georgia fired the first shot and violated international law when it used force against Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia. Its claim to self-defense was rejected and its reaction to a perceived Russian invasion was erroneous. The commission states that Russia violated international law by using disproportionate force and moving deep into Georgian territory causing casualties and considerable damage. Russia also broke the law when it recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and handed out Russian passports to its Georgian citizens. The reaction of the two governments differed from those of Israel when presented with the Gaza report in that Georgia acknowledged an error of judgment but felt justified by the report while Russia also shows that the finding defended its action and found Georgia the aggressor. The report also found that Georgia was provoked by Russia’s long-term policy which seems to give credence to the general assumption when the conflict started that Russia set the trap and Georgia foolishly took the bait. (No. 473 November 2009)

The pro-government Unified Russia (YeR) party won overwhelmingly in elections in 75 of 83 territorial units, including municipalities, on 11 October. It was followed by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF). There were 6, 696 polls and referenda, reported Itar-Tass. In Mary-El Republic, Moscow City, and Tula Oblast new legislatures were elected and in Moscow, its mayor was reelected. In 10 regional capital cities the YeR obtained 189 of 235 seats. There were reports of numerous irregularities ranging from accusation of fraud to closed polling places and violence in places like Dagestan. The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) called the election “falsified” and party officials even disagreed about turnout, saying the official figure was inflated. Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachov severely criticized the elections and said the current leadership of president and prime minister is lacking the will to make significant changes. (No. 473 November 2009)

Switzerland can be certain to find displeasing mention in the next Human Rights Practices report of the US Government after a majority of votes on 29 November approved a referendum on banning the construction of new Islamic prayer towers of mosques, the minarets. Although the Swiss government opposed the measure, 57.5 percent votes cast in 22 of 26 cantons supported it against 42.5 percent in opposition. It remains doubtful that the ban will remain in effect because it violates the constitutional freedom of religious practice as well as international conventions but it remains for the Federal Court in Lausanne, Vaud, the highest tribunal, to rule on the ban’s legality. The other referendum on banning the export of war material was decisively rejected in all cantons by 68.3 percent of votes cast again 31.7 in support. This measure was strongly opposed by industry and employees of affected companies fearing the loss of business abroad. (No. 473 November 2009)

The presidential election is scheduled for 17 January and 18 candidates have been nominated, including the current President Viktor Yushchenko (born 23 February 1954) of the Our Ukraine (NU) party, former banker (nominated on 10 November). Prime Minister Ms. Yuliya Voldymyrivna Timoshenko (born 27 November 1960), leader of the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc (BYuT) and former businesswoman, also is a candidate after numerous earlier statements that she was not interested in the presidency (registered on 31 October). Viktor Fedorovich Yanukovych (born 9 July 1950), former prime minister who leads the major opposition party, Party of Regions (PR) (nominated on 23 October), former mechanical engineer, are among the other nominees:

A sigh of relief was heard in European capitals when a compromise was reached with the Czech president removing his veto on the draft Treaty of Lisbon of the European Union. Next the EU will have to select and approve a president and its foreign affairs head. The name of Tony Blair of the United Kingdom has been circulating for a while but his European credentials are suspect because of the skepticism the British have shown toward the Union ever since they joined. (No. 472 October 2009)

The selection of Bosnia and Herzegovina by the United Nations General Assembly on 15 October as one of the five non-permanent members of the Security Council to serve from 2010 until 2012 is a masterpiece of irony. First, the Balkan state is not wholly independent but under the control and tutelage of a High Representative of the European Union (EU) and the United States. Next the economies of the two Bosnian-Croat and Serb states are in shambles, marked by slow growth and high unemployment. There is widespread corruption and society is increasingly polarized as shown by the infighting between the political parties. The country is described as dysfunctional and to rub salt into the wound, the leader of the Serb Republic (RS), the Serbian component, asked on 15 October for the right to secede. (No. 472 October 2009)

It is too early to usher in an indicator of economic performance and human development which could replace current economic measures of growth as expressed by gross national product (GNP) and gross domestic product (GDP). In his first New Year’s Message, in 2007, the French president deplored economists’ emphasis on growth while ignoring human development or lack of it. He commissioned a study by two Nobel Laureates, Dr. Amartya Kumar Sen of Harvard University and Dr. Joseph E. Stiglitz, former chief economist of the World Bank, which was presented on 14 September. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) of France is adopting some of the study’s recommendations while the United Nation’s Human Development Report already reflects some of Dr. Sen’s contributions. Although these are economic measurements they are used by governments in many political plans and programs, incl. annual budgets. Perhaps in the not too distant future, economic performance indicators will also take into account human performance and social indicators, personal well-being and satisfaction, and factors such as environmental degradation, public health, sustainable development, and unemployment. (No. 472 October 2009)

A major obstacle on the path toward approval of the Treaty of Lisbon before the end of the year by member states of the European Union (EU) was cleared on 3 October. Irish voters reversed the results of their first referendum of 12 June 2008 by approving the draft treaty by 67 percent. Turnout was 59.8 percent compared to 53 percent last year.

Germany’s Constitutional Court ruled on 30 June that the states which are represented in the second chamber of the federal parliament, the Bundesrat, should have a voice in any legislation required by EU measures. Four such laws were approved on 8 September by the Bundestag and on 18 September by the Bundesrat. The president signed the ratification document on 25 September.

Poland’s president ratified the treaty on 10 October leaving only the Czech Republic to adopt the treaty. He is waiting for a ruling from the Constitutional Court and in the meantime presenting additional obstacles, such as several clauses of exception and allowing to opt out from the Charter of Fundamental Rights. This move in turn has encouraged Slovakia’s president to demand similar reservations to the treaty. The EU is insisting that the treaty text which has been ratified by 26 of the 27 member states remain unchanged and that any exceptions be handled later. There is another cloud hanging over the process although it may lack legal basis. It has been reported that the Czech president was in contact with the leader of the British Conservative Party about delaying the treaty. If the Tories should take over the government in 2010 after elections they might have an opportunity to derail or weaken the treaty and block any strengthening of the European Commission (EC), the goal of many so-called Euroskeptics, especially in Britain. (No. 472 October 2009)

While the European Union (EU) is waiting for the next Irish referendum, it renewed the term of the president of its executive arm, the European Commission, for another five years. (No. 471 September 2009)

Fraudulent elections and combat escalation undercut NATO and US positions: It takes little insight to understand that the United Nations, the North Atlantic Alliance, the United States of America and above all Afghans are facing serious dilemmas. Evidence of widespread fraud in the president elections tarnishes not only the position of incumbent and president-elect Hamid Karzai (born 24 December 1957) but that of his US supporter. Even if the recount lowers the number of votes for the incumbent it appears he will stay in office, greatly weakened. The other challenge is the spread of the Students of Islam or Taliban to the northern provinces. The US military acknowledges their growth in strength and above all their improvement in how they wage their operations and their tactics. While neighboring Pakistan is receiving more US funds and reportedly is successfully controlling its own Taliban and tribal insurgencies, its engagement against the neighboring Taliban remains a worry for Washington. (No. 471 September 2009)

Delays in reforms spurs on Austrian government: Austria’s last “grand coalition” government was replaced in December 2008 [p. 3592] with the promise of reforming education, the health and tax systems, and cutting back military administrative positions. Nine months later, the backlog of unfulfilled reforms remains staggering and appears to worry citizens more than the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Socialist Party of Austria (SPÖ). To be fair it needs explaining that in all cases, the states and professional and trade organizations are fighting against the reforms and are trying to derail them or at least delay any implementation. In mid-September, the government met in a closed-door meeting in Salzburg to discuss ways to move ahead with its program. High on the agenda is reform of the government administration and new regulation of public employees. Unsurprisingly, unions of civil servants and teachers are vehemently against any lowering of salaries and the latter against expanding working hours. Movement in parliament is not expected before next January. (No. 471 September 2009)

Court forces rescheduling of Czech elections, Lisbon Treaty remains unsigned: Litigation, no stranger in other countries’ politics, is making a strong appearance in the Czech Republic. First there were the delaying tactics by the president, a Euro-spoiler, aimed at defeating the draft Treaty of Lisbon to reform the European Union (EU). Although parliamentary approval has been given, the president is waiting for a negative vote in Irish referendum and to be on the safe side reportedly has asked British sympathizers for support. The other case concerns new elections of the 200-seat Chamber of Deputies. After the legislature approved a constitutional amendment, elections were scheduled on 13 May to be held on 9-10 October. But two independent deputies asked the Constitutional Court to quash the amendment which on a one-time based shortened the election deadline. Result: The court, on 1 September, declared the measure unconstitutional. At the request of the interim government, the major parties agreed on a new constitutional amendment which parliament approved. Elections are scheduled for 6-7 November but the original complainant and a second independent deputy now want to again ask the court to declare the second amendment unconstitutional. (No. 471 September 2009)

French Socialists approve reform and bypass accusations of rigged voting: When the Socialist Party (PS) elected Ms. Martine Aubry (born 8 August 1950) First Secretary after two rounds on 21 November [p. 3595], the difference was by only four-tenth of a percentage points or 102 votes, very close indeed. This month, revelations in a sensational book* have renewed rivalries between Aubry and the other candidate, Ms. Ségolène Royal (born 22 September 1953). The authors allege that Aubry stole the election. They cite past voting irregularities in Lille where Aubry serves as mayor. Le Figaro points out that one could also note that there were questionable results in the departments of l’Hérault and Bouches-du-Rhône favoring Royal. The opening of old wounds comes at an inopportune moment when the party is trying to unite and regain political power and when the PS is working on an alliance with the Democratic Movement (MoDem) of former Minister of National Education and presidential candidate François Bayrou (born 25 May 1951). The First Secretary has denied the accusations and party leaders are urging concentrating on the future and leaving yesterday’s animosities behind. A first step by the leadership, the 306-member National Council, was to approve an internal reform on 12 September, starting with a membership questionnaire to solicit views and holding open primary votes. *Hold-uPS, arnaques et trahison (Hold-up PS, Swindle and Treason—in French), by Antonin André and Karim Rissouli, Paris: Editions du Moment, 179 p. €16.50. (No. 471 September 2009)

Russian leaders sound off on democracy, corruption: The unusual occasion that both Russia’s president and his prime minister suddenly belabor the shortcomings of democracy in Russia and the need for reform should not be attributed to a change of mind or sudden conversion, especially in the case of the former president. It is too early to be definitive about this development but it is more than a coincident that the statements are appearing just at the time when Dmitriy Medvedev (born 14 September 1965) and Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952) both intimate that they might run in the next presidential election in 2014.

On 1 September, at a news conference on a visit to Poland, Putin complained that democracies in the former Soviet republics are still weak, reported RIA Novosti. Ten days later, Medvedev wrote in an open letter published by the independent news site, gazeta.ru, that “we have the chance to prove to ourselves and the world that Russia can develop democratically.” He severely criticized widespread corruption and the habit of Russians to rely on the state to solve problems. (No. 471 September 2009)

Supreme Court will head UK judiciary: The United Kingdom will inaugurate a Supreme Court composed of 12 Supreme Judges on 1 October and replace the House of Lords Committee as the final court of appeal. The new court, first proposed by the Labour government in 2003, is designed to achieve a better division of powers by removing a body from judging which also participates in legislating. Exactly that seems to worry some now in government and judiciary who fear that the new court will stand up to the government and that its judges may expand powers that the Lords Committee did not assert. The Court will be headed by Lord Phillips, the Baron Phillips of Worth Matraves (born 21 January 1938), Senior Lord of Appeal since 2008.

Support for a Scottish independence referendum in 2010 is lacking: The Scottish National Party (SNP) is confident that it will obtain parliamentary support for a referendum in 2010 on independence for Scotland. It is equally hopeful that voters will approve the measure. Neither assumption is certain. Although the SNP is the largest party in the Scottish Parliament (47 of 129 seats) it governs as a minority, Labour, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats have yet to be convinced. That goes for many Scottish voters as well who are more concerned about their jobs and the economy than a party’s pet project. (No. 471 September 2009)

It should be noted that there are renewed warnings to Western leaders against giving in to Russian power moves. In an open letter from former leaders in Eastern Europe to the US president, concern is raised about yielding to Russian challenges to sovereignty of former Soviet republics and satellite nations. A British parliamentary defense report issued this month also urged the government not to countenance Russian breaches of international agreements and violations of neighbor’s sovereignty. (No. 469 July 2009)

Europe: Even before the Czech Republic was scheduled to assume the six-month presidency of the European Union (EU) on 1 January reservations were voiced because of the rampant Euro-skepticism at the top. Now final approval of the Treaty of Lisbon is in jeopardy because of Czech intransigence and the fall of the government. (No.465 March 2009)

Russia is pushing a new security architecture on the EU in order to weaken the Organization of Security and Cooperation (OSCE), thus weakening US influence in Eurasian affairs. (No.465 March 2009)

Europe: Europe like other developed economies is still reaching for measures to protect banks and creditors while the new Czech leadership of the European Union is thrown not only into the new Israeli-Palestinian conflict but into a gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine which is touching especially people in the Balkan states. (No. 463 January 2009)

After two rounds of voting by members, appeals and protests by the losing candidate, recounting by a verification commission, and final decision by the National Council of the French Socialist Party (PS), Ms. Martine Aubry, was confirmed as First Secretary on 25 November. The Council’s vote was 159 against 76 and 2 abstentions. Aubry (born 8 August 1950) succeeds François Hollande (born 12 August 1954) who was elected on 23 November 1997.

When the French Socialist Party (PS) lost the presidential election, proved unable to keep the conservatives from gaining a parliamentary majority in 2007 [2007, p. 3231], and did not prevent the new president from whittling away at past PS accomplishments, Socialists of all orientations began calling for a change in their leadership and for new directions. The venue was the next Congress on 14-16 November in Reims where a successor to First Secretary François Hollande would be chosen.

By April last year, some 13 potential candidates for the next leader either had come forward or were talked about. Among them were Ms. Martine Aubry, Mayor of Lille; Bertrand Delanoë (born 30 May 1950), Mayor of Paris; Benoît Hamon (born 26 June 1967), Member of the European Parliament; Ms. Ségolène Royal (born 22 September 1953); as well as Pierre Moscovici, Member of the National Assembly; Dominique Strauss-Kahn, and a few others. By early November, only Aubry, Delanoë, and Royal remained serious contenders with the latter leading but no one with a clear majority since only 55 percent of PS members voted. Royal was accused for making common cause with the center, especially the Democratic Movement (MoDem), of not giving enough emphasis to social questions and some also charged that this was the reason for losing the presidential election. A final straw was Royal’s earlier statement that the social democratic model was antiquated. Although Aubry was seen as representing more the socialist line and supporting the European Union (EU), the contest between the two women led to the exodus of a number of left-wing members and resulted in the formation of the Party of the Left (PG).

No decision was reached by the 631 delegates at the end of Congress and neither Aubry nor Royal gave in. In the first round of voting by the membership, Royal was ahead but had not reached a majority and in the second round she came second. Aubry was 42 votes ahead of Royal but after the recount by the verification commission, she was 102 votes ahead. Results:

Martine Aubry is the daughter of Jacques Delors who after serving as finance minister rose to President of the European Commission. in 1974 she joined the party and was closely associated with the leadership of former President François Mitterand. She served in ministerial positions for labor and social affairs and became best known for the 2000 law cutting the work week to 35 hours. After giving up her cabinet position she was elected Mayor of Lille in 2001 and reelected in March last year.

Ségolène Royal challenged the election result and is not helping the new leadership. In fact, she has said more than once that she will again seek the party’s nomination for the national presidential election in 2012.

The direction of the party under Aubry was spelled out by the political orientation declaration issued before the congress which was cosigned by all candidates except Royal. Its key points are:

On 6 December, the National Council approved the new leadership of 38 national secretaries, including 19 women. Followers of Ségolène Royal refused to join the new leadership or were not included. A National Bureau of 54 members handles administration and direction of the party under the First Secretary.

The National Assembly of the Serb Republic (RS) of Bosnia and Herzegovina adopted a non-binding resolution on 15 October expressing the conviction that it has the right to secede. The continuing challenges to the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords are intensifying since Kosovo declared its independence. The High Representative has rejected those moves and pointed out that the Serb Republic is not a state but a component of B&H and that nationalist maneuvers are blocking the country’s path to the European Union (EU). (No. 461 November 2008)

If there was any doubt that Federal Chancellor Dr. Angela Merkel was not looking forward to another four years of heading the next German government, her remarks at a party meeting on 5 September in Berlin blew away lingering doubts. She is enjoying favorable polls at home and has received good marks from the international press, especially for her engagement in European affairs and keeping open delicate links to Russia. The effective working of the governing coalition of Christian Democratic Union-Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU) and Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), despite some achievements, is hindered more and more by partisan bickering and holding back of support for solutions—by all three parties—to use them in the 2009 election campaign. Merkel told CDU county leaders that different political conditions will be needed and that the party’s goal is coalition with the center-right Free Democratic Party (FDP). A day later, FDP leader Guido Westerwelle indirectly underwrote future coalition with the CDU when he criticized the Socialists for courting the FDP at the federal level and cooperating with the Greens and the Left at the state level, such as in Hesse. Rubbing salt in the wound, he demanded that the SPD withdraw the nomination of Prof. Gesine Schwan, 65, for Federal President and support the incumbent. (No. 460 October 2008)

The Crimea continues to add to the government crisis in Ukraine. Not only does the Autonomous Republic willingly ignore some regulations of the government in Kyiv but goes counter the president’s policies. On 18 September, the Supreme Soviet, the regional legislature, approved a resolution by a vote of 79 against 8 to demand that the government recognize the independence of Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia. By treaty, Russia is to vacate the peninsula’s major naval base of Sevastopol by 2017, an obligation it accepts publicly. The Kremlin may however count on the considerable pro-Russian sentiment in the Crimea and await a public move for return to Russia. After abolition of the Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic in 1945 it was reconstituted as Crimea Oblast’ of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR). In 1954, the Oblast’ was transferred to Ukraine, ostensibly for geographic, cultural, and economic reasons but in reality with the encouragement of Nikita Khrushchov. (No. 460 October 2008)

The Swiss People’s Party (SVP) must nominate an electable candidate for federal councilor, i.e. member of the government, and abandon its opposition, the three major parties announced on 28 September. The candidacy depends on the possible resignation of Samuel Schmid (SVP) who heads the Federal Department for Defense. If the party should not comply it would be excluded from government for the next four years. (No. 460 October 2008)

The ouster of British Prime Minister Gordon Brown was averted. Over the summer, he had become more unpopular with citizens and with a number of Labour Party members, including ministers and some in the House of Commons. Lack of clarity in policies and economic setbacks were given as reasons and 12 Labour Members of Parliament, the so-called rebels, demanded that the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) allow a vote on Brown at the annual party conference. But cabinet, trade unions, and the NEC rallied around the prime minister and the request was blocked. At the meeting on 20-24 September in Manchester pressure for Brown to resign continued but he refused and said “I’m not going to be diverted by a few people making complaints.” (No. 460 October 2008)

Another candidate for the leadership of the French Socialist Party (PS) has made it official. Ms. Martine Aubry, 58, formally entered the campaign on 19 September, joining three declared contenders. An active member of the party, she is mayor of Lille and has served as Minister of Labor and Minister of Social Affairs in two separate cabinets. She is the daughter of Jacques Delors who served as President of the European Commission (EC) and as finance minister. (No. 460 October 2008)

Mayotte in the Indian Ocean may become the 101^st Department of France in 2009. Somewhat smaller than Guam and under French protection since 1841, the island decided overwhelmingly to stay part of the French Community when the neighboring Comoros chose independence in 1974. In April, the island’s legislature approved a motion requesting departmental status under the law of 22 February 2007 authorizing the change. Consultations with the metropolitan government are scheduled for April 2009. (No. 460 October 2008)

The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) made a major leadership change, one year before the federal elections. On 7 September, Franz Müntefering, (born 16 January 1940) was nominated Chairman, succeeding Kurt Beck (born 5 February 1949) who resigned unwillingly. The prospective chairman has held the same office 2004-2005 and served as leader of the SPD parliamentary group from 2002-2005. On 21 November 2007 he resigned as Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister of Labor and took a “political sabbatical.” Minister for Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier (born 5 January 1956) was nominated to be the party’s candidate for Federal Chancellor. While Müntefering is well known and respected as an experienced politician, Steinmeier is regarded as too much of a centrist by the party’s basis and is seen lacking voter appeal. A special party congress on 18 October will vote on the nominations. (No. 460 October 2008)

Germany with its highly developed technology remains a major arena for foreign espionage, maintain the Federal Ministry of Interior and the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV). With the disappearance of the Soviet Union and East European communist governments in 1990, military secrets have given way to industry and technology as targets. A federal ministerial spokesman quoted in the Frankfurter Rundschau on 15 August speaks about growing danger to German economy, to large as well as small companies which engage in business abroad. China heads the list of collectors, followed by Russia. Among those greatly vulnerable to approach by agents are guest researchers and foreign students. (No. 460 October 2008)

The European Union (EU) is concerned about the political weakening of the Czech government. Prague is scheduled to assume the chairmanship on 1 January for six months and has to cope with an unusually heavy agenda of significant matters. If domestic politics interfere they may delay or jeopardize the re-unification of Cyprus and set back preparations for the admission of Croatia and later Serbia. (No. 460 October 2008)

Austria’s grand coalition of right and left broke up in July but September elections could lead to a similar arrangement. Meanwhile, erstwhile leader of the far right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), Jörg Haider, returned to the helm of the equally right-wing Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ), a party he helped create after dividing the FPÖ in 2005. (The European Union (EU) felt compelled to impose and maintain sanctions on Austria from February-September 2000 when the FPÖ became part of a coalition government). Dr. Haider (born 26 January 1950), a lawyer and Governor of Carinthia since 1999, in recent years has moved in and out of national politics without really pulling out. Meanwhile, his hostile attitude toward immigrants and minorities is inviting condemnation from democrats while attracting like-minded national extremists. On 30 August, delegates of the BZÖ met in Graz to select Haider as party leader replacing Peter Westenthaler (born 6 November 1967) who was convicted of perjury in July. The new party head said that he would present himself as the party’s candidate for federal chancellor. (No. 459 September 2008)

Leadership of the French Socialist Party (PS) will be the main issue at the party congress on 14-16 November in Reims, Marne Department. François Hollande (born 12 August 1954) has been First Secretary since 1997, a position that is now sought by nearly a dozen although by the end of August there were only two serious candidates: Ms. Ségolène Royal (born 22 September 1953), since May, and Bertrand Delanoë (born 30 May 1950) who presented himself on 26 August. She ran unsuccessfully for the French presidency in 2007 and has indicated she plans to repeat her candidacy in 2012, a circumstance that may work against her. Delanoë, Mayor of Paris since 2001, on the other hand is ahead in polls and if chosen by the party will undoubtedly become its presidential nominee. (No. 459 September 2008)

The European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX) will not only take over responsibilities from the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) but acquire some of its offices and equipment. A transfer agreement was signed on 18 August. Russia and Serbia which consider Kosovo’s declaration of independence illegal have demanded an explanation for the transfer from the UN Secretary General. (No. 459 September 2008)

The Russian president outlined his Foreign Policy Concept on 31 August near Sochi, Krasnodar Kray, after having presented it earlier at an ambassadors’ meeting. His five points were:

The heads of state and government of the 43 members of the Mediterranean Union (UM) launched the new international organization at a summit meeting on 13 July in Paris. An extension of the Barcelona Process of the European Union (EU) it includes 27 EU member states, 11 states of the Near East and North Africa, 4 Balkan states, and Monaco. Seen at first as a French pet project it is an extension of the EU into the Mediterranean basin and a way to engage nations in EU development projects without offering a more formal affiliation. Libya, although holding observer status, says the UM is threatening African and Arab unity. It is supported by Senegal’s president who deplores the potential alienation of North Africa from the sub-Saharan countries. (No. 458 August 2008)

To nobody’s surprise, the grand coalition between the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Socialist Party of Austria (SPÖ) ended on 7 July when the ÖVP said “that’s enough.” Earlier there was a weak attempt to resolve the health reform but for months both parties had been waiting for the right moment to call for new elections [IO, p. 3507]. The situation was not helped by some unhappiness with the perceived lack of leadership by Federal Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer (SPÖ) and efforts by his Minister of Transportation Werner Faymann to assume leadership of the Socialists and to rise to chancellor. After the parties agreed on a date for the new elections, the National Council on 9 July approved new elections for 28 September. (No. 458 August 2008)

The French president is continuing with his agenda of reforms. After making sure that the constitution is in accordance with law of the European Union (EU), approving constitutional reforms of institutions, and introducing reforms of education, the government will tackle the country’s administrative divisions and institutions in 2009. In an interview published by Le Monde on 17 July, Nicolas Sarkozy broached the subject by suggesting that next year there should be reflection and debate about the future of nearly 40,000 units ranging regions, to departments, to communities. (No. 458 August 2008)

At a meeting with ambassadors in Moscow on 15 July, the Russian president presented his Foreign Policy Concept. The strategy expressed in the document is similar to that of his predecessor issued in 2000, albeit more moderate in tone. The five sections deal with general policy objectives, an analysis of current policy, global priorities, regional priorities, and institutional functions. Besides suggesting a new balance in world affairs, the concept for the first time also includes the prime minister in carrying out foreign policy initiatives. (No. 458 August 2008)

The 28^th revision of the 1958 Constitution of France became law on 23 July. The Congress of Parliament made up of 576 members of the National Assembly and 330 members of the Senate approved the constitutional law by a vote of 539 to 357, one vote more than required. That vote was cast by Jack Lang a member of the National Assembly and the Socialist Party (PS) but also a member of the Constitutional Commission. Besides dealing with regional languages and holding a referendum on the admission of new members of the European Union (EU), the authority of the president is strengthened, the role of parliament is clarified, and citizens will have the right to submit initiatives by referendum. (No. 458 August 2008)

Ukraine celebrates new holiday: In remembrance of the Grand Prince of Kyiv, St. Prince Volodimir (958-1015), who converted to Christianity in 988, the president on 25 July decreed the annual observance of the Day of Baptism of Kyiv Rus every 28 July. (No. 458 August 2008)

After the derailing of the draft constitution of the European Union (EU) by Dutch and French voters in 2005 and a new attempt to streamline the union under the Treaty of Lisbon, Irish voters dealt the process a severe setback. In a referendum on the treaty, some 54 percent of voters rejected the treaty on 12 June. Although the treaty has been ratified by 19 of 27 countries and was to have become effective on 1 January 2009, the process is now stymied by the action of less than one percent of Europe’s population. Among consequences from the rejection is the deepening of the division between countries favoring greater integration and those being content with having a common market and the strengthening of the Franco-German engine of the EU. Immediate reaction of the European Council meeting of 20 June was obvious disappointment and a decision not to push Ireland for a second referendum but to continue with the ratification by member legislatures. (No. 457 July 2008)

After the Irish disapproval of the Treaty of Lisbon of the European Union (EU), one of Austria’s governing parties, the Socialist Party of Austria (SPÖ) now wants to submit the treaty to a public referendum. This switch was confirmed by Federal Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer (SPÖ) and the next party leader, Werner Faymann on 24 June. They justify the move by the current low view of the EU in the country. Opponents, incl. some prominent SPÖ members, say the party is playing politics with an eye on the next elections. (No. 457 July 2008)

After bringing its constitution in line with laws of the European Union (EU), the French government is preparing to tackle a reform of administrative divisions of the country and its overseas dependencies. The need for such a reform was acknowledged by President Nicolas Sarkozy when he visited Limoges, Limousin Department, on 26 June. Since then critics are talking about the abolition of the departments, a notion that the state secretary in charge of territorial reform, rejected on the following day. The idea to concentrate on regions and do away with departments first arose in a report by the commission of Jacques Attali in January. (No. 457 July 2008)

A study by the US Air Force about poor security of its nuclear storage facilities in Europe has resurrected calls by German politicians for the removal of nuclear weapons from German soil. A number of leading members of the Socialdemocratic Party of Germany (SPD) as well parliamentary leaders of The Left and Alliance 90/The Greens demanded that Germany give up its nuclear role. The leader of the opposition Free Democratic Party (FDP) told a newspaper on 23 June that nuclear weapons are a leftover from the Cold War and must be removed from Germany. (No. 457 July 2008)

Macedonia--Assembly of the Republic: For a Better Macedonia (ZpM), led by the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), 63 of 120 seats, on 1 June 2008. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) stated that the elections “did not meet international standards” and the “election day was marred by violent incidents, intimidation, and ballot box stuffing in predominantly ethnic Albanian areas.” Voting was repeated in 186 polling stations on 15 June and in 15 stations on 29 June. (No. 457 July 2008)

Repeating last year’s break with tradition, the British prime minister again revealed his government’s legislative program ahead of the Queen’s Speech from the Throne this November. Major initiatives include ratification of additional Geneva Conventions and UN Personnel bill, reform of the House of Lords, marine and coastal access, tests for immigrants, protection of depositors, and homes for rent to low-income families and help for first-time buyers. (No. 456 June 2008)

Admission of Turkey into the European Union (EU) will face a new hurdle--in France. On 30 May, the National Assembly approved a constitutional amendment subjecting any new EU applicant whose population is greater than five percent of the total EU population—about 495.5 million-- to a popular referendum. Turkey’s population of an estimated 71.2 million would exceed the threshold of 24.8 million almost three times. (No. 456 June 2008)

After several years of governing effectively and strongly, social democratic parties in Western Europe have lost to the conservatives, except in Spain. In 2005, the red-green coalition in Germany ended and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) which had saved enough electoral strength had to form a government with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) under a CDU chancellor. During the French presidential elections, victorious Nicolas Sarkozy of the conservative Union for Popular Majority (UMP) not only dazzled voters with his modern outlook but was helped by several missteps of the rival candidate of the Socialist Party (PS) which placed her at odds with the left wing of her party. In Italy, earlier this year, the new center-left Democratic Party (PD) coalition was beaten at the polls by the center-right People of Freedom (PdL) which gained additional seats thanks to the proportional representation system and coalition with the regionalist and populist Northern League (LN).

In Austria, Federal Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer, leader of the Austrian Social Democratic Party (SPÖ), is being criticized by voters and within the party for lacking direction and determination. Since he is leading a coalition government with the conservatives, he has also become the whipping boy for the entire administration. Nevertheless, the SPÖ will select a new party head in the fall while Gusenbauer will stay at the head of the government.

In France, progressive parties are exploring whether to form a unified left. The Socialist Party is occupied by the rivalry of several candidates for the party position of First Secretary, held by François Hollande. At the head of the candidates but by no means are sure winner is Ms. Ségolène Royal, the party’s nominee in the last presidential election. Another serious contender is the Mayor of Paris, Bertrand Delanoë. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, currently Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as former Prime Laurent Fabius are trying to stay above the “fist fight,” his words, which is weakening the party. The decision will be made at the party congress on 14-16 November in Reims.

Sometimes, an election is determined not so much by the presence of a convincing leader but by the absence of one on the opposing side. In Germany and in the United Kingdom, unhappiness with leaders is not so much over program or substance but with their image of weak leadership. Kurt Beck is Chairman of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and Premier of Rhineland-Palatinate where he also chairs the state’s SPD. Unlike the former party head, he is neither part of the federal coalition government nor a member of the Bundestag or federal parliament. But that is not his problem. Voters and party members became concerned when he first declared that cooperation with the SPD’s new rival, The Left party, at state level would be acceptable and later sort of repudiated that view. There is considerable popular support for a Left-SPD coalition after the 2009 federal elections but the SPD leadership has rejected it and Beck tries to defend the decision—at least until 29 May. At a local party meeting he said he would not have a problem with revisiting this position, appearing to agree to a change again. Two days later, at the SPD Future Congress in Nürnberg he categorically excluded common cause with The Left and offered close cooperation with the liberal German Free Democrats (FDP) and Alliance 90/The Greens. The FDP ignored the offer.

Even in the UK the Labour Party is running into serious problems—local election losses--and Prime Minister Gordon Brown is paying the price. Once hailed as a worthy successor of Tony Blair, party friends and voters now criticize how he conducts business and also blame him for poor economic decisions which he has denied. But the seed has been planted and not only does the leader of the Conservative Party speak of “the end of New Labour,” but a former Labour deputy prime minister on 31 May hailed Foreign Secretary David Miliband as a future leader while insisting that Brown was “the best man” to steer the country’s economy. (No. 456 June 2008)

The perception from the French presidency places the head of state Nicolas Sarkozy at the top of the government leaving his Prime Minister François Fillon to take care of details, except for occasional presidential interest in the nitty-gritty of diplomacy, education and the like. The prime minister’s job is also to keep the administration running and the ministers in line. Lately, the latter has not been easy and even National Assembly members of the governing Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) and the UMP itself have gone off in different directions on courts, juveniles, neighborhoods, the Olympic Games, railroad family discounts, schools and others. So, on 15 April, at the beginning of the customary Wednesday cabinet meeting, i.e. the Council of Ministers, the president opened with an appeal or what appeared to be a call to order to his ministers, the government, and the party: He demanded loyalty, solidarity, the “need to have a well-bonded team around him and the government.” (No. 455 May 2008)

Newly independent Kosovo will proclaim its new constitution on 15 June. The Assembly unanimously approved the draft on 9 April. The document of 40 chapters and 160 articles defines the nation as a parliamentary secular republic and “an independent, sovereign, democratic, unique, and indivisible state.” It will be headed by the president with highest powers who will also be the commander in chief of a future army. Official languages are Albanian and Serbian. (No. 455 May 2008)

The continuation of the conservative-social democratic Austrian coalition government is becoming more questionable. On 7 March, a special parliamentary committee began to look into charges of corruption by the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). The ÖVP had voted against the opposition motion to create the committee saying it would only serve politics and not the search for the truth. Later, the party became even more exercised when the social democrats supported the nomination of a member of the extreme right-wing Freedom and Alliance Future Austria (FPÖ) as committee chairman. (No. 454 April 2008)

The Socialist Party (PS) of France is demanding a reform of how the Senate is formed. Although the PS commands a majority in departments and cities over 15,000 people it is in the minority in the Senate (120 members on the Left and 189 on the Right and Center out of 326 seats). At the root of this imbalance is the current system under which local councils of communities with fewer than 1,500 inhabitants—representing about 22 percent of the country’s population—name 41 percent of the 150,000 electors of senators. The big cities where half of the country’s population is concentrated nominate only 30 percent of the electors. This inequality was designed to benefit rural areas but it also denies the PS equal representation in the Senate because about three-quarters of the small towns vote for the Right. (The 326 senators, 346 in 2010, are elected indirectly by deputies of the lower house, the National Assembly, and elected officials of local bodies, incl. mayors.) (No. 454 April 2008)

The position of Kurt Beck at the head of Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) is not shaky but today there are two certainties: he will not be the party’s candidate for federal chancellor and his opinion rating is low. The SPD chairman, one of the partners of the “grand coalition,” allowed on 21 February that cooperation with The Left party at state level would be acceptable, a position that was approved by the SPD Party Council on 3 March. After heavy criticism from within the party and from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the other coalition party, Beck then announced that The Left remains an opponent just like other parties. Not surprisingly, the change from opposition (the long-standing party line), to cooperation, to opposition has earned Beck the predicate of inconsistency or worse. One result is talk about letting SPD members nominate the next candidate for chancellor or proposing the current Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister of Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier for the role. (No. 454 April 2008)

Recognition of Kosovo is continuing but a few states are wavering, and some have decided against it. By month’s end, 36 states offered formal recognition, including Bulgaria (20 March), Canada (18 March), Croatia (19 March), Finland (7 March), Hungary (19 March), Iceland (5 March), Japan (18 March), Korea (ROK) (28 March), Liechtenstein (25 March), Monaco (19 March), Netherlands (4 March), Norway (28 March), Slovenia (5 March), and Sweden (4 March). Action by Lithuania is pending and Indonesia (repeated on 27 March) and Vietnam (26 March) stated their opposition. (No. 454 April 2008)

The European Council approved the revitalized “Barcelona Process: Union for the Mediterranean" at its meeting on 13-14 March in Brussels. Ostensibly, it is a compromise but politically it is seen as a damper on the prestige project of the French president when he assumes the six-month presidency of the EU in July and an indication of renewed Franco-German maneuvering. On the eve of his election in May 2007, the French president brought up the subject of a Mediterranean Union, to be led by France. On 23 October 2007, on a visit to Morocco, he publicly launched the project. Reportedly it was the brainchild of one of his special advisers and like other ideas of the president, neither fully thought out nor coordinated. (It was also thought of as an alternative to Turkish membership in the EU which the president opposes.) Needed was the approval of the European Union which since 1995 has been engaged in the well-funded “Barcelona Process,” a partnership of the 27 EU members and 12 countries around the Mediterranean Sea. After discussing the project with the German federal chancellor, not only was the idea of a new and separate organization killed but the plan for a leading French role and exclusion of EU members not bordering on the Sea, was dramatically changed, if not to say watered down. The union was renamed and combined with the EU process. No EU member will be left out and cooperation with the Near Eastern and North African states will be coordinated by two directors, one from each group, serving for two years, supported by a small secretariat.

The by-play between Paris and Berlin, both currently the seats of two leaders who like and exercise power, was behind the compromise. By running the Med organization, France would have excluded Germany whose influence in the East is of concern to some in the French capital. This is also evident in the new “Entente Formidable,” a sort of Anglo-French axis that was inaugurated when the French president visited London on 26 and 27 March, and received both a royal and ecstatic welcome. (No. 454 April 2008)

The 13-month old conservative-social democratic Austrian coalition government is not doing well. Federal Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer (SPÖ), 48, is criticized for lacking direction and determination. The interior ministry, again headed by a minister who belongs to the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), is now being investigated for having exercised undue political influence on police investigations before 2007, and officers of the BAWAG Bank for Labor and Economy, closely linked to the Austrian Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) and the Austrian Trade Union Federation (ÖGB), are being tried for fraud and falsification. Neither party likes the coalition in which the SPÖ had to give up a number of promises made during the elections but neither one wants to boldly request new elections. Since grand coalition has almost become a trademark of Austrian politics—7 of 11 postwar cabinets spanning 35 of 63 years—new elections probably will result—in another grand coalition. (No. 453 March 2008)

Denmark’s newest political party, the New Alliance (Y), is shrinking rapidly. Founded in May 2007 as a liberal party opposed to both conservative and socialist policies, it received 2.8 percent of the vote in December and five seats in the 179-seat parliament. In February, two deputies left of which one replaced a conservative representative and saved the governing three-party coalition from losing its 90-seat majority, one more than required. Reason for the defection from the coalition is the steady influence of the anti-foreigner Danish People’s Party (DFp). (No. 453 March 2008)

Formation of new governments in German states of Hamburg and Hesse remains unresolved. It appears that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Alliance 90/The Greens will set up a coalition in the city state of Hamburg. The situation in Hesse is less clear where CDU, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the Left, and the Greens are still maneuvering to arrive at a solution. (No. 453 March 2008)

The Assembly of Kosovo declared the independence of the Kosovo Province from Serbia on 17 February and proclaimed the new Republic of Kosovo. The surprise of this controversial step had evaporated months ago, especially after the UN special envoy had submitted his proposal last March. Only the date was really in question but Kosovo officials had left no doubt that it would happen shortly after their presidential election.

The Assembly of Kosovo by a vote of the 109 deputies present approved independence of the world’s 195^th state, the Republic of Kosovo (Republika e Kosovës). Eleven members of the Assembly from ethnic minorities, incl. Serbs, were absent. Immediately following the approval and hoisting of a new flag—without the Albanian symbol—the prime minister asked 192 states to recognize the new state. On 27 February he declared that procedures to join the United Nations (UN), European Union (EU), North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) will start soon and that the government plans to open at least 20 embassies this year.

Besides visceral objections from Serbia which has historical links to the province, albeit from an era long past, opponents and states with reservations maintain that territorial integrity is sacrosanct overlooking the equally valid right of people to self-determination (1). In an ideal situation, all parties would negotiate and arrive at a solution, probably a compromise (This, of course, also did not apply to some changes at the end of World War 2). After the Special Envoy on Kosovo’s Future Status of the UN Secretary General Martti Ahtisaari proposed separation and in meetings between Serbia and Kosovo no willingness to compromise existed, Serbia even saying, never, never, the outcome became clear. The envoy found that reintegration is not a viable option and proposed that “Kosovo’s status should be independence, supervised by the international community.” (2)

The proposal was protested by Serbia and Russia. The latter, like some other states that are embroiled with groups seeking self-determination and possible independence, is concerned that a successful separation by Kosovo will complicate the situation in Chechnya and the Northern Caucasus where there are strong movements for full autonomy or independence.

Under the Ahtisaari plan, Kosovo will not enjoy unlimited sovereignty. It will be supervised by an international presence, the International Steering Group (ISG), that will make sure it will not join another country (such as Albania or Macedonia), is committed to multi-ethnic democracy and protect the Serb minority and culture, and limit its armed forces. The ISG held its organizing meeting on 27 February in Vienna. It is composed of the members of the Kosovo Contact Group (France, Germany, Italy, Russia, UK and US). Russia did not participate but Austria was represented. Finland, Japan, Sweden, and Switzerland may join later, said the Austrian Ministry for European and International Affairs.

In addition, on 16 February, foreign ministers of members of the European Union (EU) approved a 2,000-strong EU police and justice mission, European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX Kosovo) to Kosovo. It was launched on 17 February and is expected to take over from the UN in June.

At least 27 governments have recognized the new nation, including 17 EU members:

Afghanistan (1^st to recognize, on 18 Feb.), Albania, Australia, Austria, Belgium (25 Feb.), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France (18 Feb.), Germany (20 Feb.), Ireland (the 22^nd country on 29. Feb.), Italy (21 Feb.), Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Peru, Poland (26 Feb.), Sweden (4 Mar.), Switzerland (27 Feb.), Taiwan, Turkey, United Kingdom, and the United States of America (18 Feb.).

Among those who have stated their opposition to the unilateral declaration of independence of Kosovo and are withholding recognition are Serbia, Argentina (concerned about the Falkland Islands/Malvinas), Bulgaria, China (concerned about Sinkiang and Tibet), Cyprus (concerned about Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus), Greece (concerned about Cyprus), Malta, Moldova (concerned about Transdniestr), Portugal, Romania, Russia (concerned about Chechnya and North Caucasus). Slovakia, and Spain (concerned about Basque region). Georgia, in the spirit of democracy would extend recognition but is hesitating because it does not wish to encourage Abkhazia and South Ossetia to declare independence unilaterally. (No. 453 March 2008)

On 25 November, Greenland, a dependency of Denmark, will hold a referendum among its 57,000 inhabitants. While there is movement toward independence, this year’s measure will ask for support for greater autonomy. (No. 452 February 2008)

Discouraging signs for the conservative partner of the German governing coalition: The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is now experiencing what the previous Green-Socialist government suffered in 2004 and 2005 when the Social Democratic Party (SDP) lost one state election after another. In Hesse (27 Jan.), the CDU ended up with a 10-percent smaller share than in 2003 and now in Hamburg the CDU lost its dominating position. (It will continue to govern in Lower Saxony). (No. 452 February 2008)

The Italian government’s plan to revert to the pre-Berlusconi electoral law failed at the last moment before parliament was dissolved. Currently parties must obtain at least two percent of the vote to be represented in parliament and the so-called majority premium of extra seats no longer goes to the party obtaining the largest number of votes but the largest percentage. (No. 452 February 2008)

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has been steadily losing points in opinion polls. He is not being helped by poor economic performance but probably the two main criticisms, especially from his supporters who belong to older generations, is his unending stream of changes and innovations which are often not followed through and the impression that he lacks presidential dignity. Exchanges in street language with protesters rub many the wrong way and more serious observers deplore the president’s disregard of advice, especially from his ministers. (No. 452 February 2008)

The Prime Minister of Slovenia, Janez Janša (born 17 September 1958), became President of the European Union (EU) and its European Council on 1 January for the next six months, succeeding the Portuguese head of government. (No. 451 January 2008)