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January 2008 Vol. 27  No. 451

Non-permanent membership of the Security Council of the United Nations (UN) changed on 1 January when five states joined for a two-year term after being voted on 16 October: Burkina Faso, Costa Rica, Croatia, Libya, and Vietnam. They replaced Congo (B), Ghana, Peru, Qatar, and Slovakia.

Japan assumed the one-year chairmanship of the Group of Eight (G-8) on 1 January, succeeding Russia. The annual summit meeting is scheduled for 7-9 July in Hokkaido.

The Prime Minister of Slovenia, Janez Janša (born 17 September 1958), became President of the European Union (EU) and its European Council on 1 January for the next six months, succeeding the Portuguese head of government.

The Nunavik region in northern Québec is approaching semi-autonomous status after signing an agreement with the Canadian federal government and the province on 6 December. While remaining subject to the Québec legislature, 11,000 residents in Inuit communities will elect a 21-member assembly and a five-member executive will be in charge of education, health, and transport.

Lal Krishna Advani (born 8 November 1927) would become India’s prime minister if his Bharatiya  Janata Party (BJP) should regain the majority in the next parliamentary elections in 2009. The country’s main Hindu party selected its leader, the former deputy prime minister, as candidate for prime minister on 10 December. There is talk that the governing Indian Congress Party (INC) might call for earlier elections.

 

viewing the world

From Berlin to Beijing: New Year’s Resolutions--Traditional holiday and New Year’s messages by sundry heads of state and government usually are full of sentiment and good wishes and lack substance. What is omitted, however, can be of more interest and likewise emphasis and tone yield clues to what occupies leaders. Comparing what comes out of various capitals also helps us better understand different cultural and national approaches in public life.

Chinese President Hu Jintao delivered his message on 31 December in which he expressed his hope for peace and development of mankind. His words on Taiwan lacked the usual stridency and he pledged continued autonomy for Hong Kong and Macao.

Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda wished the nation a Happy New Year on 10 January and said “Let’s make this a good year.” His emphasis was on hosting the summit meeting of the Group of Eight (G-8) this year and what it means for Japan.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy in his first address to the nation on New Year’s Eve  wished everyone a year of good luck and success. The brief speech expressed mainly the president’s dedication to France and her people and his determination to carry through with reforms started in 2007.

The tone out of Berlin was upbeat. Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel on the first day of the new year extended to Germans and their families a fulfilled and blessed year 2008 but the address was again a review of accomplishments, nationally as well as those of her government. She singled out for special consideration the care of young children and the government’s intention to step in when parents are overtaxed with bringing them up. Russian President Vladimir Putin kept his last New Year’s message as president on 31 December brief and gave his thanks to the nation for “everything that we’ve done together over the past eight years.”

US President George Bush sent his best wishes for a Happy New Year on 31 December. He noted the rising economic growth rate, thanked American soldiers for their service and sacrifice and expressed his determination “to remain on the offensive against the enemies of freedom.”

International attention was spent on the climate change conference and South American moves to set up a regional monetary fund, partly to counter the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which is seen by the progressive governments as a tool of Washington. The Bali talks were a small step toward greater government action to slow global overheating. The end of monarchy in Nepal is near, a move that was speeded up by the king’s unfortunate seizure of power in 2005. Deplorable is that the royal demise came at the insistence of Maoist insurgents who have never shown their support for democratic government.

Satisfaction and disappointment existed side by side in a series of recent elections. In Australia Labor won to the regret of the conservatives who had governed for over a decade. The referendum on constitutional amendments  in Venezuela failed and temporarily the path to a presidency without term limits is blocked. In Zimbabwe, the current president will stay with us a bit longer—elections are in March—continuing a heavy burden for citizens who don’t benefit from being officials or supporters. Duma elections in Russia, see below, were a farce so will be the presidential election. The same can be said about voting in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. On the positive side, the voters’ will was clearly expressed in Bermuda, South Korea, Switzerland, and Thailand. In Kenya, dissatisfaction with the results has lead to violence and is now turning into a source of smoldering conflict unless winners and losers soon arrive at a compromise solution, perhaps repeating elections in some districts.

 

European Union leaders sign new charter

Treaty omits symbols,  makes gradual changes

The watered-down version of the draft Constitution of the European Union (EU), now known as the Treaty of Lisbon, was signed by the heads of state or government of the 27 member nations on 13 December. Barely a week later, on 17 December, the Hungarian National Assembly was the first one to ratify by a vote of 325 against 5 and 14 abstentions. Since no national referenda are scheduled—the British and Danish governments said there was no loss of sovereignty involved and Ireland and Portugal are undecided—the treaty is expected to enter into force on 1 January 2009 after ratification by all national legislatures. In fact, strong EU supporters regret that no union-wide referendum will be held since it would  express majority acceptance by all EU voters and all member countries.

The draft Constitution was signed on 29 October 2004 in Rome but the process ended on 29 May and 1 June 2005 when the draft was rejected by French and Dutch voters in a referendum. Even the new 135-page treaty, including 13 protocols, totaling 230 pages, went through a rough year of negotiations with most of the difficulties caused by Poland and the United Kingdom and some last-minute compromise over an Italian seat in the European Parliament (EP).

The treaty adopts  several new principles, gives citizens and national parliaments a greater voice in EU affairs, and makes several institutional changes:

  • Under a Citizen’s Initiative at the request of at least one million citizens, the European Commission (EC) can be asked to make legislative proposals but which it is not obligated to approve.
  • National parliaments have the right of appeal within 8 weeks (formerly 6) to send back proposals to the EC for reconsideration—examination and justification--at the request of at least more than half of the national legislatures.
  • The European Court of Justice (ECJ) will gain jurisdiction to examine the compatibility of national legislation with EU law.
  • Under a new mutual defense clause “If a member state is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other member states shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. (New Article 28A.3.)

·         Under a new provision, the right of withdrawal from the  EU is recognized, requiring that conditions must be negotiated with partners.

Institutions

  • The president of the European Council, composed of heads of state and government, will be elected by the Council for a term of two-and-a-half years in place of the current six-month rotation. The semi-annual rotation of chairmanship of the Council [of Ministers] remains.
  • The term of the chairman of the Eurogroup of Finance Ministers is also changed to two-and-a-half years.
  • The size of the European Commission (EC) will be reduced beginning in 2014, when alternatingly only two-thirds of members will have one commissioner only. The EC president will be elected by the European Parliament (EP).
  • The position of a High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice President EC is established who also manages the external aid budget and is in charge of the European External Action Service, the EU’s diplomatic service.
  • The size of the European Parliament (EP) will be cut from 785 to 750 seats, beginning in 2009. To strengthen its role, it will gain the right of co-decision in most important questions of legal cooperation, inner security and illegal immigration
  • Ireland and the UK will have the right to opt out of closer justice and police cooperation.

Procedures

  • Voting based on weighting will remain unchanged until 2014. Then the principle of double majority will be introduced requiring approval by 55 percent of members representing at least 15 states and 65 percent of population.
  • Between 2014 and 2017 any country can request reversion to old rules on any vote.
  • The requirement for unanimous vote remains on matters of foreign policy, budget, revenue and tax matters. Under a new provision, majority voting is introduced for home affairs and justice.

The Treaty of Lisbon will amend the EU's two core treaties, the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty establishing the European Community. The latter will be renamed the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. In addition, several Protocols and Declarations, excepting Poland and the UK from the application of the Charter of Fundamental Rights, are attached to the Treaty.

 

Pakistan’s elections delayed

Bhutto assassination deepens instability

The political situation In Pakistan has gone from bad to worse with the assassination of a major opposition  party leader, Ms. Benazir Bhutto, 54, on 27 December in Rawalpindi. Amidst demonstrations and unrest it had become clear that legislative elections could not be held on 8 January as planned but had to be delayed until 18 February. Even before and following the undemocratic presidential election [IO 2007, p. 3433], the nomination of Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) for a seat in the 342-seat National Assembly was rejected by the Election Commission because of conviction in two cases. His appeal also was rejected on 19 December. Thus the two major opposition leaders and critics of the president will not be part of the new legislature. Judges, including 13 members of the Supreme Court, who also  refused to approve the president’s suspension of the constitution on 3 November, were forced into retirement on 5 December.

Not unusual, at the time of death, politicians, press, and public vie with each other in highlighting the positive. So it was no wonder  that mention of widespread corruption and encouragement of fundamentalists, especially in Kashmir, under Bhutto’s two terms, was crowded out by laudatory comments. The same applies to her rival Sharif but it should be pointed out that she succeeded, at least in the UK and in the United States, to portray herself as a fighter for democracy and convinced the present US administration, undeservedly,  that she should head Pakistan’s next government.

 

Presidential party gains majority in Russian Duma

Putin selects Medvedev to succeed him

Results of the elections for the 5th State Duma of Russia on 3 December were no surprise. Democratically minded Russian voters were cynical, foreign observers whose numbers were strictly limited this time, said the elections lacked legitimacy, were unfair, and failed democratic standards. Candidates of opposition party were not only frequently hindered in their campaigns, especially in some regions, but received little or no coverage on national television from which they were barred while the presidential party, Unified Russia (YeR), enjoyed nearly complete support from government, national television, and many regional administrations and officials. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) denounced the results as fraudulent and requested that they be voided. Claims were published that in some regions, such as Ingushetia, voter turnout—officially 64 percent nationwide—was lower than announced and illegally raised and the increase credited to YeR.

There was no surprise that President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, 55, was elected as a deputy. On 6 December he gave up his mandate in favor of Sergey Kapkov (YeR), 32,  from Magadan Oblast’, although he could later reclaim his seat.

The manner in which the legislative elections were orchestrated indicates how the presidential voting in March will appear. Some serious opposition candidates have already withdrawn and it is certain that the president’s designated successor, a little known but close and long-time associate, Dmitriy Anatol’yevich Medvedev (born 14 September 1965), will be elected. Personally appealing, skilled, and reportedly completely loyal to the president, his tenure is bound to reflect the continuing influence of Putin who was even invited to become Medvedev’s prime minister in a unique but unreal role reversal.

Election Results [for table, see printed issue]

 

updates

significant events

December

United Nations (UN): Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention held its 13th session (COP 13) on 3-14 December 2007 in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia.

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC): The 145th extraordinary meeting of the conference was held in Abu Dhabi (05).

European Union (EU): European Council held summit meeting on 13-14 December 2007 in Brussels and signed the EU Reform Treaty.

European Union (EU): The Schengen Agreement on unhindered movement of persons was extended to the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia (21).

Mediterranean: Leaders of France, Italy, and Spain advanced concept of  a Mediterranean Union to be launched at a summit meeting in July 2008 in Paris (20).

South America: Bank of the South was launched by the presidents of seven South American countries (09) and the leaders of Bolivia and Ecuador called for the creation of a South American currency.

Nepal: Government and Maoist insurgents agreed on abolition of the monarchy (21).

Palestine: Delegations of Israel and Palestine resumed peace talks in Jerusalem (12). The Movement of Islamic Resistance (HAMAS)  offered to hold talks about a ceasefire which was rejected by Israel (19).

Russia: Suspension of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty by Russia took effect (13).

Serbia-Kosovo: UN Security Council failed to reach compromise between Kosovo and Serbia (19).

 new government leaders

Argentina, Ms. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (PJ), President, on 10 December.

Australia: Kevin Rudd (ALP), Prime Minister, on 3 December.

Belgium: Guy Verhofstadt (VLD), interim Prime Minister, on 20 December.

Bermuda: Sir Richard Gozney, Governor, on 12 December.

Bosnia and Herzegovina--Serb Republic: Nikola Spiric (SNSD), reappointed on 28 December.

Bosnia and Herzegovina—Serb Republic: Rajko Kuzmanovic (SNSD), President, on 28 December.

Croatia: Ivo Sanader (HDZ), Prime Minister, asked to form new government on 16 December.

Kyrgyzstan: Igor Chudinov (Ak Jol), Prime Minister, on 24 December.

Latvia: Ivars Godmanis (LC), Prime Minister, on 20 December.

Nauru: Marcus Stephen, President, on 19 December.

Slovenia: Danilo Türk, President, on 22 December.

Solomon Islands: Derek Sikua, Prime Minister, on 20 December.

Togo: Komlan Mally, Prime Minister, on 6 December.

Ukraine: Ms. Yuliya Yushchenko (BYuT), Prime Minister, on 18 December.

bio briefs

info/literature

Surveys and Documentation:

Chinese Communist Party 17th Central Committee

UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples

(Issue contains 29 pages.)