SELECTED FROM RECENT ISSUES OF THE MONTHLY INTERNATIONAL OBSERVER

August 2010, No. 482

Annual Survey of Independent Nations Country Political Data

Part 2: Macedonia-Zimbabwe

19th Edition [for full text see printed issue]

(Issue contains 42 pages)

July 2010, No. 481

Annual Survey of Independent Nations Country Political Data

Part 1: Afghanistan-Luxembourg

19th Edition [for full text see printed issue]

(Issue contains 44 pages)

June 2010, No. 480

Viewing the World

Current Concerns

Caribbean and Central America: The new Hurricane season

Cleanup  and reconstruction after oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico

Korean Peninsula war threats

The delay in forming a government in Iraq

Iran’s nuclear power stance

Eurozone and financial safety net

Around the globe, civil liberties and political rights declined in 2009. Any survey of the progress of liberty remains skewed. Militants around the world continue to resort to violent action against governments and fellow human beings for reasons ranging from acceptable to despicable, from reaching for self-determination, fighting repression to ethnic, religious, and social goals, to criminal endeavors. Even governments in the free world fighting militants are turning to measures, especially against Arabs and Muslims, which are at best applied arbitrarily, and often clash with democratic values and international law. In some states of the not-so-free world, application of these measures is even worse. There is another reason for uneven progress: Governance or better the lack of it or its defects. Nearly all of the countries lacking in civil liberties and political rights have expertly written constitutions guaranteeing rights but for cultural and historical reasons lag behind in fully understanding democratic rights. In countries ruled by single individuals or parties or by cliques, the overriding goal is to keep and stay in power, often with the aim of enriching themselves.

 For four years running, global declines in freedom outweighed gains in 2009 and the number of countries designated shown as Free in 2009 stands at 89, representing 46 percent of the world’s 194 countries and 46 percent of the world population. In a year marked by intensified repression against human rights defenders and civic activists, declines for freedom were registered in 40 countries in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and the former Soviet Union, representing 20 percent of the world’s total polities, reports Freedom House of Washington in its annual survey*.

 Authoritarian states including Iran, Russia, Venezuela, and Vietnam became more repressive. Declines in freedom also occurred in countries that had registered positive trends in previous years, including Bahrain, Jordan, Kenya, and Kyrgyzstan.

The number of electoral democracies dropped by three and stands at 116. Developments in four countries—Honduras, Madagascar, Mozambique, and Niger—disqualified them from the electoral democracy list, while conditions in the Maldives improved enough for it to be added.

The not-for-profit research and advocacy organization, reports that in 2009 89 (89) countries were judged free, accounting for nearly half of the world’s population. Those judged partly free number 58 (62), while about 44 percent of the world’s population live in not free countries—47 (42). About one-half of those in last group inhabit one country: China. (2008 findings are shown in parentheses).

Freedom House highlights the following regional changes:

Africa--Declines were seen in Botswana and Lesotho, with the latter declining from Free to Partly Free. In addition, declines were noted in Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Guinea, Madagascar, and Niger, and in two of the region’s most repressive regimes, Eritrea and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Improvements were noted in Malawi, Burundi, Togo, and Zimbabwe.

Americas--Latin America experienced significant setbacks in 2009, particularly in Central America. Honduras lost its status as an electoral democracy due to a coup, and Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Venezuela also registered declines.

Asia--Improvements were noted in Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Mongolia. Declines were documented in Afghanistan after a deeply flawed presidential poll and in the Philippines after the massacre of civilians and members of the press and the subsequent declaration of martial law. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan were downgraded from Partly Free to Not Free.

Europe-- Western Europe has struggled to deal with the influx of immigrants from Muslim countries and the rise of anti-immigration policies, which contributed to declines in Switzerland and Malta. Improvements were seen throughout the Balkans, with Kosovo moving from Not Free to Partly Free after its recent elections and Montenegro moving up to the Free category. By contrast, virtually all of the countries in the non-Baltic former Soviet Union continued to pursue a repressive course, including Russia.

Middle East and North Africa--Repression in Iran led to score declines, and other countries in the region suffered a number of setbacks. Jordan, Bahrain, and Yemen were all downgraded from Partly Free to Not Free. Declines were also noted in Morocco and the Palestinian Territories. Lebanon and Iraq registered improvements.

Countries receiving the lowest rating for lack of political rights or civil liberties comprise the following: Belarus, Burma, Chad, China, Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Guinea, Korea (DPRK), Laos, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Swaziland, Syria, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam. Except for Eritrea, Guinea, and slight improvements in Ivory Coast and Zimbabwe, the list has not changed much over the past years.

*Freedom in the World 2010, Washington DC: Freedom House, January 2010.

 ***

Just as last year, the poor state of governance in some African countries is underlined by the announcement of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation of London on 13 June that the annual leadership award will not be handed out this year although the overall standard of governance in African countries is improving. The chairman of the Foundation said “Whether there is a winner or not, the purpose of the Foundation is to challenge those in Africa and across the world to debate what constitutes excellence in leadership," adding that the standards set for the Prize winner are high, and the number of potential candidates each year is small. So it is likely that there will be years when no Prize is awarded. In the current year, no new candidates emerged." Looking toward the future, leadership fellowships will be launched to identify and prepare the next generation of outstanding African leaders at multilateral institutions.

At a meeting of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) which ended on 27 June in Addis Ababa, the five East African countries that signed a new agreement held firm on their commitments against the opposition of Egypt and Sudan. The five countries are Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda.

The president of the Central African Republic is allowed to stay in office beyond his term and until new elections are held.

The same holds true for the president of the Comoros, however, his authority will be limited.

Nigeria’s acting president became president with full powers.

Sudan’s and Southern Sudan’s presidents started their new terms after reelection.

***

 The 8^th governor general of the Bahamas took office.

Costa Rica inaugurated its first woman president.

The new prime minister of Trinidad and Tobago is the first woman to head the islands’ government.

The United States Congress lost its longest serving member Robert C. Byrd, 92, a member of the Democratic Party of the mountain state of West Virginia. He served in the House of Representatives from 1952 until 1958 when he was elected to the US Senate in which he served until his death on 28 June in a hospital in Fairfax, Virginia. He started out with strong conservative and anti-civil rights views and later became a supporter of some progressive legislation without fully embracing liberal agendas. His loss will not change the political balance since the Democratic state governor will appoint a Democratic replacement.

***

China’s State Council appearing to be welcoming citizen’s freedom of speech on the internet, says it has a right to censor the internet as a matter of national sovereignty. The white paper on internet policy released on 8 June lists gambling, pornographic, and religious sites that will be banned or censored and prosecuted as well as those that pose a threat to state power, national unity, and security.

The acting President of Kyrgyzstan, the country’s first woman to hold the highest office, becomes president until the end of 2011 but is barred from running for office then.

During a sitting of Pakistan's Supreme Court on 2 June, one of the judges observed that “the will of the people was above the Constitution and upholding and protecting that will was the ultimate objective of every organ and functionary of the state,” reports Dawn.

***

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will cut the number of its headquarters from 11 to 5. Its 14 agencies are to be reduced to three, the secretary general proposed at a meeting of defense ministers on 10 June in Brussels.

Germany’s federal president resigned and the president of the Federal Parliament’s second chamber, the Bundesrat, became acting president. A Federal Assembly, composed of all members of both houses of parliament and of an equal number of representatives, elected by state legislatures, will chose the next federal president.

In Hungary, the leader of the Federation of Young Democrats-Hungarian Civic Union (FiDeSz-MPSz) heads a new government.

In the ongoing dispute over its name of Macedonia, the Balkan state has gained Turkey as an ally.

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) will be empowered to investigate and issue official warnings to individuals it believes could cause or create a crime, as part of a bill being considered by the State Duma. Refusal to cooperate will be subject to fines and administrative arrest.

In the United Kingdom a coalition of the Conservative and Liberal Democratic parties entered government, ending 13 years of government by the Labour Party.

***

Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey at the initiative of the latter will meet every year on issues of regional cooperation. Meetings of the High-Level Quadruple Council will be supplemented by quarterly meetings of ministers. The vision of a new “Middle East Union” is downplayed by Ankara reports Hürriyet Daily News. Nobody talks about it yet but it's not unlikely that Iran and Iraq eventually will also join.

The Kabylia Autonomy Movement (MAK) announced on 2 June that it had established a government-in-exile of nine ministers in France. The step was taken to call international attention to Algeria's neglectful treatment of the region and its Berber population.

***

 Although a number of Pacific island nations worry about submergence, a new study may offer some hope. Two scientists* used historical aerial photos and satellite images to study change in the land surface of 27 islands over the last 60 years and found that many low-lying islands are growing because of coral debris and sediment. Among them are the Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, and Tuvalu. The authors allow that although the islands might not be submerged in the short term they do not reject the current assumption that further rises in sea levels will threaten the livelihood of people living there.

*Paul Kench and Arthur Webb in the New Scientist weekly of London on 2 June.

 The Association of Small Island States (AOSIS) whose members also include those in the Caribbean and Indian Ocean appealed to the meeting of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Bonn (ad hoc working groups, 1-11 June) not to abandon the 1.5 degrees Centigrade target of global warming. Saudi Arabia, supported by Kuwait and Qatar, opposes the call of AOSIS because any action on carbon emissions will hurt revenues from oil sales.

 ***

 Elections in May

5 Mauritius: Election of 69-seat National Assembly. The Alliance of the Future (AdA) comprising the Mauritian Labour Party (PTM), Mauritian Social Democratic Party (PMSD), and the Militant Socialist Movement (MSM) obtains the majority with 49.7 percent and 45 seats.

6 United Kingdom: General elections of 650-seat House of Commons. No party wins a majority but  the Conservative Party obtains a plurality with 36 percent and 307 seats and forms a coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with 23 percent and 57 seats.

10 Philippines: Election of president. Benigno Noynoy Aquino III of the Liberal Party of the Philippines (PLP) obtains 42 percent of votes cast, followed by Joseph Estrada (PMP), 26.25 percent. Jejomar Binday of the Philippine Democratic Party-People's Power (PDP-Laban) obtains 41.7 percent of votes cast, followed by Mar Roxas of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), 39.6 percent.

10 Philippines: Election of Congress. One-half of the 24 seats of the Senate were contested of which the PLP obtained 3 making it one of three parties with 4 seats each. Of the 230 single-member district seats the incumbent coalition Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats (LAKAS-CMD) retained a plurality with 106 seats. An additional 57 seats will be allocated depending on results by party.

16 Dominican Republic: Legislative elections. The incumbent Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) retained its majority in both houses with 105 of 183 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 31 of 32 seats in the Senate.

23 Ethiopia: Election of 546-seat House of People's Representatives. The ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) obtained a majority with 499 seats.

24 Trinidad and Tobago: Election of 41-seat House of Representatives. The new 5-party People’s Partnership coalition obtained the majority with 29 of 41 seats.

25 Suriname: Election of 51-seat National Assembly. The newly formed Mega Combination (MC), including the National Democratic Party (NDP), obtained the plurality with 40 percent of votes cast and 23 seats.

28-29 Czech Republic: Election of 200-seat Chamber of Deputies. No party obtained a majority but the Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD) obtained 56 seats, followed by the incumbent Civic Democratic Party (ODS) with 53 seats after losing 28 seats.

30 Colombia: Election of president. Minister of Defense Juan Manuel Santos Calderón of the Social Party of National Unity (U) obtained 46.7 percent of votes cast, followed by the Mayor of Bogotá Aurelijus Rutenis Antanas Mockus Šivickas of the Colombian Green Party (PVC), 21.5 percent. Both will compete in the runoff election on 20 June.

Presidential candidacies

Brazil—on 3 October 2010: Michel Miguel Elias Temer Lulia (born 23 September 1940)  received preliminary approval by the Party of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (PMDB) on 18 May to run as vice presidential candidate with the Workers’ Party (PT) presidential candidate Ms. Dilma Vana Rousseff (born 14 December 1947). He is President of the PMDB.

Egypt—in 2011: Dr. Mohammad Mostafa Al Baradei (born 17 June 1942), Secretary General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from 1997 until November 2009, has neither ruled in or out the possibility of his candidacy for president but expects guarantees for fair and honest elections. He does not wish to join a party and would run as independent but could obtain the endorsement of the New Wafd Party. On 3 June, BBC reported that the Muslim Brotherhood which is banned would support Baradei’s candidacy.

On 22-23 May, both the prime minister and the secretary general of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) insisted that the NDP wants the President, former Air Marshal Mohammed Hosni Said Mubarak (born 4 May 1928), to run again.

Fiji—in 2014: The current military ruler, Commodore Frank Voreque Bainimarama (born 27 April 1954), said on 10 June that he hasn’t considered contesting the elections, reported the Fiji Broadcasting Corporation.

Finland—in 2012: The Green League (VL) on 23 May started campaigning for Member of Parliament Pekka Haavisto (born 23 March 1958) as its presidential candidate. He is a former Minister of Environment and Development and is serving as European Union (EU) Special Representative for Darfur.

Madagascar-on 26 November 2010: President Andry Nirina Rajoelina (born 30 May 1974) of the Determined Malagasy Youth (TGV) party declared on 12 May that he would not stand in elections.

Nigeria--in 2011: Former President Olusegun Obasanjo, at a function on 7 June, said there was nothing wrong with the current President, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (born 20 November 1957) of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), to be a candidate. In a television chat on 20 June, the president said he was not in a position to tell about his next election plan.

Tanzania—on 31 October 2010: National Assembly member John Magale Shibuda (born 23 February 1950) of the governing Revolutionary Party of Tanzania (CCM) announced on 15 June that he would not be a candidate for president in this year’s election. He noted that the current president has led in the right direction and should complete what he started.

Forecast August 2010 [see printed issue]

New National Leaders [see printed issue]

Country Notes 2010 [see printed issue]

WATCHLIST Areas and Situations of Concern 

     Cameroon, Gambia, Kenya, Liberia

     Afghanistan,Bangladesh, India, Indonesia

     Bosnia & Herzegovina, Greece, Italy, Kosovo

     Egypt, Lebanon

     Australia

[for full text see printed issue]

Cabinet Directories

 Afghanistan, Equatorial Guinea, European Union, France, Ivory Coast, Japan, Kyrgyzstan, Niger

[for full text see printed issue]

Info-Literature [see printed issue]

(Issue contains 34 pages)

May 2010, No. 479

Viewing the World

Current Concerns

Caribbean and Central America: The new Hurricane season

Korean Peninsula war threats

Power-sharing in Nepal

Continuing unrest in Thailand

Israeli blockade of Gaza

The delay in forming a government in Iraq

Iran’s nuclear power stance

Eurozone and finances of Greece, Portugal, and Spain

 Powerful governments, including G-20 states, are blocking global justice for human rights abuses. Just days before the Israeli military used deadly force against an international convoy in international waters headed for Gaza with medicines and supplies, Amnesty International (AI) released its annual assessment* of human rights and abuses worldwide on 27 May.

Its main charge: “powerful governments are blocking advances in international justice by standing above the law on human rights, shielding allies from criticism and acting only when politically convenient.  Repression and injustice are flourishing in the global justice gap, condemning millions of people to abuse, oppression and poverty,” said Claudio Cordone, interim AI Secretary General.

 “Governments must ensure that no one is above the law, and that everyone has access to justice for all human rights violations. Until governments stop subordinating justice to political self-interest, freedom from fear and freedom from want will remain elusive for most of humanity.” Amnesty International called on governments to ensure accountability for their own actions, fully sign up to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and ensure that crimes under international law can be prosecuted anywhere in the world. It said that states claiming global leadership, including the G-20, have a particular responsibility to set an example.

The International Criminal Court’s 2009 arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al Bashir, for crimes against humanity and war crimes, was a landmark event demonstrating that even sitting heads of state are not above the law. However, the African Union’s refusal to cooperate, despite the nightmare of violence that has affected hundreds of thousands of people in Darfur, was a stark example of governmental failure to put justice before politics.

The UN Human Rights Council’s paralysis over Sri Lanka, despite serious abuses including possible war crimes carried out by both government forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, also stood as a testament to the international community’s failure to act when needed. Meanwhile, the recommendations of the Human Rights Council’s Goldstone report calling for accountability for the conflict in Gaza still need to be heeded by Israel and Hamas.

Worldwide, the justice gap sustained a pernicious web of repression. Amnesty International’s research records torture or other ill-treatment in at least 111 countries, unfair trials in at least 55 countries, restrictions on free speech in at least 96 countries and prisoners of conscience imprisoned in at least 48 countries.

Human rights organizations and human rights defenders came under attack in many countries, with governments preventing their work or failing to protect them.

In the Middle East and North Africa, there were patterns of governmental intolerance of criticism in Saudi Arabia, Syria and Tunisia, and mounting repression in Iran. In Asia, the Chinese government increased pressure on challenges to its authority, detaining and harassing human rights defenders, while thousands fled severe repression and economic hardship in North Korea and Burma.

Space for independent voices and civil society shrank in parts of Europe and Central Asia, and there were unfair restrictions on freedom of expression in Russia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Belarus and Uzbekistan. The Americas were plagued by hundreds of unlawful killings by security forces, including in Brazil, Jamaica, Colombia and Mexico, while impunity for US violations related to counter-terrorism persisted. Governments in Africa such as Guinea and Madagascar met dissent with excessive use of force and unlawful killings, while Ethiopia and Uganda among others repressed criticism.

Callous disregard for civilians marked conflicts. Armed groups and government forces breached international law in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sri Lanka and Yemen. In the conflict in Gaza and southern Israel, Israeli forces and Palestinian armed groups unlawfully killed and injured civilians. Thousands of civilians suffered abuses in escalating violence by the Taleban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, or bore the brunt of the conflicts in Iraq and Somalia. Women and girls suffered rape and other violence carried out by government forces and armed groups in most conflicts.

Other trends included:

• Mass forced evictions of people from their homes in Africa, for example in Angola, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria, often driving people deeper into poverty.
• Increased reports of domestic violence against women, rape, sexual abuse, and murder and mutilation after rape, in Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Jamaica.
• Millions of migrants in Asia-Pacific countries including South Korea, Japan and Malaysia faced exploitation, violence and abuse.
• A sharp rise in racism, xenophobia and intolerance in Europe and Central Asia.
• In the Middle East and North Africa, attacks by armed groups – some apparently aligned to al-Qa’ida – in states such as Iraq and Yemen, heightened insecurity.

Globally, with millions of people pushed into poverty by the food, energy and financial crises, events showed the urgent need to tackle the abuses that affect poverty.

Amnesty International also called on G20 states that have failed to fully sign up to the International Criminal Court (ICC)–USA, China, Russia, Turkey, India, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia–to do so. (Although 110 states ratified the Rome Statute to the ICC by the end of 2009, only 12 out of the G20 countries had done so. Among others, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Turkey and the USA have stood aside from, if not deliberately undermined, international justice efforts.)

Having excluded itself from the jurisdiction of the ICC, the USA faces less external pressure to address its own abuses committed in the context of its counter-terrorism strategy. When President Barack Obama took office and ordered the closure of the Guantánamo Bay detention facility within a year, as well as the end of the secret detention program and the use of so-called “enhanced interrogation techniques”, the signs were promising. However, by the end of 2009 the Guantánamo detentions were still ongoing and little progress had been made in holding anyone accountable for the violations there and in the other aspects of the US-led “war on terror”.

China too shields its actions from international scrutiny. In July 2009, violent riots followed a police crackdown on an initially peaceful protest by Uighurs in Urumqi, Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. The Chinese government restricted access to information, arrested non-violent protesters, and set up quick, unfair trials, sentencing many to death and executing nine within months of the violence. In December, a further 13 were sentenced to death, and 94 more arrested. The short and controlled access journalists were allowed after the violence is no substitute for proper international scrutiny – China failed to respond to a request from the UN Rapporteur on torture to visit the area. Any claim by the government that it is ensuring accountability is not credible when the supposed accountability is cloaked in secrecy and a rush to executions.

Despite an EU-commissioned independent inquiry that concluded that all sides in the 2008 Georgia-Russia conflict were responsible for violations of international humanitarian and human rights law, neither Russia nor Georgia had brought anyone to account by the end of the year, and 26,000 people were still unable to return home.

It was increasingly clear that Russia would use its power to shield both its own soldiers and Georgia’s breakaway regions of South Ossetia (and Abkhazia) from international scrutiny. Specifically, Russia opposed the extension of the mandates of two crucial international monitoring missions in Georgia belonging to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the UN. This left the European Union Monitoring Mission as the sole international observer body operating in Georgia, with no access to areas controlled by Russia or the de facto South Ossetian and Abkhazian authorities in the post-conflict zone.

Indonesia, another financial heavyweight with membership of the G-20, has for more than 10 years failed to ensure accountability for the victims of human rights violations committed during Timor-Leste’s 1999 UN-sponsored independence referendum and the previous 24 years of Indonesian occupation. Despite various national and internationally sponsored justice initiatives over the last decade, most of those suspected of having committed crimes against humanity in 1999 are still at large. Of those who have been prosecuted in Indonesia, all have been acquitted.

The second obstacle–-the politicization of international justice–-makes the pursuit of accountability subservient to a political agenda of supporting allies and undermining rivals. The USA, for example, and European Union states, used their position within the UN Security Council to continue to shield Israel from strong measures of accountability for its actions in Gaza. In a display of counter political bias, the UN Human Rights Council, initially resolved to investigate only alleged Israeli violations. To his credit, Judge Richard Goldstone, subsequently appointed to lead that investigation, insisted that the UN Fact-Finding Mission should examine alleged violations by both Israel and Hamas. Also at the UN Human Rights Council, not a single Asian or African state voted against the resolution that applauded the Sri Lankan government’s conduct of the war against the LTTE.

The unwillingness of the powerful to apply the same standards to themselves and their political allies plays into the hands of others who can then justify their own double standards, sometimes placing a misguided notion of “regional solidarity” above solidarity with the victims. Nowhere can this be seen more clearly than in the initial response of African states to the ICC’s arrest warrant for President Al Bashir. Despite the seriousness of the crimes alleged, in July the Assembly of the African Union (AU), chaired by Libya, reiterated a request to the UN Security Council to suspend the proceedings against the Sudanese President, decided that AU member states would not co-operate with the ICC in his arrest and surrender, and requested the African Commission to convene a preparatory meeting to discuss amendments to the Rome Statute to be submitted to the 2010 Review Conference.

After travelling freely around countries not party to the Rome Statute, President Al Bashir was then invited by Turkey, Nigeria, Uganda and Venezuela. After an outcry from civil society, however, the tide began to shift. South Africa said it would fulfill its obligations as a party to the Rome Statute, and Brazil, Senegal and Botswana made clear their readiness to arrest him if he arrived. Nevertheless, at the end of 2009, President Al Bashir was still at large, and still alleging that the effort to prosecute him was politically motivated and biased against Africa. For hundreds of thousands of displaced people in Darfur, the nightmare of further violence and abuses continues, with the prospect of the war in Southern Sudan resuming and the hardship intensifying.

Counter-terror and security: The new US administration seemed to promise substantive change in some of the policies that have damaged international human rights protections over the previous seven years. An end to the CIA secret detention program, for example, and the release of some information on the legal opinions that had been issued in support of that program, were welcome. But not all promises translated into reality. The deadline set by President Obama on his second day in office to close the detention facility at Guantánamo within a year drifted as domestic party politics trumped the human rights of the detainees. The positive move by the new administration to turn to the ordinary federal courts to try some Guantánamo detainees was tarnished by its decision to retain military commissions for others. "Despite the progress made in an important number of emblematic cases of past human rights violations, the legal, jurisdictional and political obstacles that have helped entrench impunity in the region, remained formidable in 2009."

Meanwhile, detentions at Bagram airbase in Afghanistan continued as if under the old administration, and the USA failed to meet its legal obligation to ensure accountability and remedy for human rights violations committed in the counter-terrorism context since September 2001.

Despite serious failures in ensuring justice last year, many events revealed progress. In Latin America, investigations into crimes shielded by amnesty laws were reopened, with landmark judgments involving former leaders including the convictions of former President Alberto Fujimori of Peru for crimes against humanity and Argentina’s last military president, Reynaldo Bignone for kidnapping and torture. All trials in the Special Court for Sierra Leone were concluded apart from the on-going trial of former President of Liberia Charles Taylor.

Global justice gap condemns millions to abuse: No one should be above the law. But all too often, those who commit the worst kinds of human rights abuses are not brought to justice. The world’s leaders must do much more to protect people’s rights. The Amnesty International Report 2010 exposes some of the worst abuses committed around the world:

• Human rights abusers enjoyed impunity for torture in at least 61 countries
• People tortured or otherwise ill-treated in at least 111 countries.
• Unfair trials in at least 55 countries (35 percent of all countries, 47 percent of G-20 states).
• Prisoners of conscience held in at least 48 countries (30 percent of all countries, 42 percent of G-20 states).
• Freedom of expression restricted in at least 96 countries (60 percent of all countries, 53 percent of G-20 states).

Note: All countries refers to the 159 countries covered in the Amnesty International Report 2010, which documents the state of human rights in those countries for the period January to December 2009. G-20 covers the 19 country members but excludes the European Union.

*Amnesty International Report 2010: State of the World’s Human Rights, London, May 2010.

***

 World energy use continues to rise but was dampened by global recession. Next to water, energy is not only an economic subject but a resource of vital importance over which governments risk war. One need only revisit the energy shock of 1973 when the Arab oil embargo was imposed or the strategic considerations mentioned in connection with the 1990 Gulf War and the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Next to food and water, energy is of critical political importance--for supplier as well as for consumer. We have not reached the point of imminent resource wars, a subject that is rising to the foreground in public discussion, such as China’s inroads in Africa to secure oil but related issues of conservation, climate change, and global warming are sharpening international debates.

The global economic recession that began in 2007 and continued into 2009 has had a profound impact on world energy demand in the near term, notes EIA. Total world marketed energy consumption contracted by 1.2 percent in 2008 and by an estimated 2.2 percent in 2009, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services declined. Although the recession appears to have ended, the pace of recovery has been uneven so far, with China and India leading and Japan and the European Union member countries lagging. As the economic situation improves, most nations return to the economic growth paths that were anticipated before the recession began. 

The demand for world energy continues to go up at a slightly lower rate. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy projects* that world energy consumption is increasing by 49 percent from 2007 to 2035 (44 percent from 2006 to 2030). The largest projected increase in energy demand is again for the region outside the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) or the industrial countries, at 84 percent (73 percent from 2006 to 2030), compared to 14 percent (15 percent) in OECD countries. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 495 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2007 (472 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2006) to 590 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and to 739 quadrillion Btu in 2035 (678 quadrillion Btu in last year’s forecast).

Liquids, especially petroleum, are expected to remain the world’s dominant energy source and fossil fuels which include coal and natural gas, will continue supplying much of the energy used worldwide. World use of liquids and other petroleum grows from 86.1 million barrels per day in 2007 (85 million barrels per day in 2006) to 921 million barrels per day in 2020 and 110.6 million barrels per day in 2035 (107 million barrels per day in 2030).

To meet the increase in world demand, liquids production (including both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies) increases by a total of 25.8 million barrels per day from 2007 to 2035. It is assumed that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) countries will invest in incremental production capacity in order to maintain a share of approximately 40 percent of total world liquids production through 2035, consistent with their share over the past 15 years. Increasing volumes of conventional liquids (crude oil and lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain) from OPEC producers contribute 11.5 million barrels per day to the total increase in world liquids production, and conventional supplies from non-OPEC countries add another 4.8 million barrels per day. 

The demand for natural gas will increase with rebounding world oil prices. Natural gas consumption worldwide increases by 44 percent, from 108 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 156 trillion cubic feet in 2035. In 2009, world natural gas consumption declined by an estimated 1.1 percent, and natural gas use in the industrial sector fell even more sharply, by 6.0 percent, as demand for manufactured goods declined during the recession. The industrial sector currently consumes more natural gas than any other end-use sector, and in the projection it continues as the largest user through 2035, when 39 percent of the world’s natural gas supply is consumed for industrial purposes. Electricity generation is another important use for natural gas throughout the projection, and its share of the world’s total natural gas consumption increases from 33 percent in 2007 to 36 percent in 2035. 

To meet the projected growth in demand for natural gas, producers will need to increase annual production in 2035 to a level that is 46 percent higher than the 2007 total. The largest projected increase in natural gas production is for the non-OECD region, with the major increments coming from the Middle East (an increase of 16 trillion cubic feet from 2007 to 2035), Africa (7 trillion cubic feet), and Russia and the other countries of non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (6 trillion cubic feet). 

In the absence of effective international and national steps to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, world coal consumption continues to growing and is expected to increase its share of world energy consumption. Coal use worldwide will increase from 132 quadrillion Btu in 2007 (127 quadrillion Btu in 2006) to 206 quadrillion BTU in 2035 (190 quadrillion Btu in last year’s estimate).

World net electricity generation increases by 87 percent and use is forecast to grow from 18.8 trillion kilowatthours in 2007 (18.0 trillion kilowatthours in 2006) to 35.2 kilowatthours in 2035 (31.8 trillion kilowatthours in 2030). The strongest growth in net electricity consumption is projected for the non-OECD region, averaging 3.3 percent a year, and 1.1 percent a year in OECD nations over the projection period.

Of alternative sources, renewable energy is the fastest-growing source of world electricity generation, spurred on by the expected high prices for fossil fuels and by government incentives for the development of alternative energy sources. From 2007 to 2035, world renewable energy use for electricity generation grows by an average of 3.0 percent per year, and the renewable share of world electricity generation increases from 18 percent in 2007 to 23 percent in 2035.

Former uncertainty associated with nuclear electricity generation is diminishing and it is attracting new interest as countries seek to increase the diversity of their energy supplies. It is projected to increase from 2.6 trillion kilowatthours in 2007 to 4.5 trillion kilowatthours in 2035.  The largest increase in installed nuclear generating capacity is projected for non-OECD Asia where nuclear power generation is projected to grow at an average rate of 7.7 percent per year from 2007 to 2035. Nuclear generation is projected to increase by 8.4 percent per year (8.9 percent in last year’s estimate) in China and by 9.5 percent per year (9.9 percent) in India.

Carbon dioxide emissions are rising from 29.7 billion metric tons in 2007 (29.0 billion metric tons in 2005) to 42.4 billion metric tons in 2035 (40.4 billion metric tons in 2030). In 2007, non-OECD emissions exceeded OECD emissions by 17 percent (14 percent in 2006); in 2035, they are projected to be double the OECD emissions.

Last year, EIA noted that carbon dioxide is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere caused by humans. In recent years, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have been rising at a rate of about 0.5 percent a year, and because anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide result primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels for energy, world energy use has emerged at the center of the climate change debate.  In the current estimate, the Administrations explains that a significant degree of uncertainty surrounds any long-term projection of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. Major sources of uncertainty include estimates of energy consumption in total and by fuel source.

*International Energy Outlook 2009, Energy Information Administration. Washington DC: US Department of Energy, May 2010.

***

UN elects new members for human rights body: The Human Rights Council (UNHRC) which replaced the former Human Rights Commission is still criticized for including members with human rights record ranking from not very clean to dismal. Amnesty International has singled out the Council for its paralysis in handling the situation in Sri Lanka. On 13 May, the General Assembly elected 12 new and reelected 2 members of the 47-seat Human Rights Council. African and Asian states each nominated four members and Latin America and Caribbean,  Eastern Europe, and Western Europe two countries each.

Beginning in June, the following members will serve for three years:  *Angola, Ecuador, Guatemala, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Mauritania, Moldova, Poland, *Qatar, Spain, Switzerland, Thailand, and Uganda. (*Reelected, limited to two consecutive terms.) They replace the following states elected in 2007: Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Italy, Madagascar, Netherlands, Nicaragua, Philippines, Slovenia, and South Africa. 

Libya, not known for its clean human rights record received the lowest number of votes held in secret but far more than required. Switzerland which was universally condemned for its anti-minaret referendum ranked close after Thailand which obtained most of the votes despite its controversial handling of current political unrest. Iran withdrew its candidacy early on.

The Customs Union of the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) will not be fully functional on 1 July as scheduled, the Russian prime minister announced on 22 May. The holdup is caused by the need to resolve disputes over the final version of the customs code. Initial members are Belarus, Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation.

Using blasphemy laws to silence critics. Representatives of Islamic states following more fundamental observations for some time have worked openly and behind the scenes of international and regional organizations for prohibiting criticism of their religion and controversial practices. After a temporary ban on the international social networking Facebook site by the Pakistani telecommunications authority because of a cartoon competition depicting the Muslim prophet, Jama'at-ud-Da'wah (JuD/JUD) of Pakistan is demanding from the United Nations to outlaw blasphemy of prophets and sentence violators to death. JuD ostensibly is an Islamic charity organization but India as well as the US have proscribed it as a front for the militant Army of the Righteous or Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LT).

In a related matter, the European Parliament (EP) on 20 May approved a resolution expressing its deep concern over the misuse of blasphemy laws in Pakistan which has led to increased violence against members of religious minorities.

***

War has not broken out after Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda signed a new Nile Basin agreement on 14 May in Entebbe, Uganda. Kenya was prevented from attending and signing but issued a statement of support and on 19 May announced it had signed the pact. Egypt which had threatened war over any diminution of its “historic right” to waters of the river, declared the agreement was not binding. Rather than fighting the seven states up river, it appears Cairo will try to blunt the pact diplomatically, beginning with Kenya.

No new date was set after the presidential election in the Central African Republic (CAR), scheduled for 16 May, was postponed. The National Assembly on 10 May approved a constitutional amendment allowing the president to serve until new elections are held. It looks like the President, General François Bozizé (born 14 October 1946), who came to power through a coup d'état in 2003 and then was elected in 2005, is heading for an indefinite term.

After heavily contested elections and amidst numerous charges of election fraud and irregularities, the incumbent president was reelected. In Southern Sudan, the incumbent also was reelected.

***

Now that Burma’s military rulers have tailor-made a new constitution and succeeded in scuttling the only legitimate party, the National League for Democracy, they are ready to play “democracy.” Ministers are retiring from the military so they can run for elective office as civilians. The prime minister is forming a party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), and the election commission is handpicked by the rulers. To the generals this means their country will be governed like those in the free world and they are following the ”rules.” There will be other parties but 25 percent of legislative seats will be reserved for the military and Buddhist monks are excluded from running for office.

In Kyrgyzstan, anti-government protesters ousted the government and forced the president to flee and resign. The parliamentary leader of the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (PSDK) stepped in and assumed powers of interim president. While the new government is in place, supporters of the former president continue with the counter-revolution.

The 20^th prime minister of Sri Lanka took office after his United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) gained the majority in parliamentary elections.

***

The Austrian federal president was reelected by the Federal Assembly.

Belgium’s prime minister stepped down.

Efforts by the leaders of the Serbian Republic, one of the two components of Bosnia and Herzegovina, to undermine institutions of the state, are only one reason for the deterioration of internal politics. The High Representative, Dr. Valentin Inzko (born 22 May 1949), says the country remains afflicted by a lack of consensus on what kind of state it wants to be. He is concerned that in the run-up to the scheduled general elections on 3 October divisive rhetoric disputing the sovereignty and constitutional order could lead to provocative actions.

A hard-line nationalist president assumed office in the disputed state of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) giving rise to concerns about reunification of the island. The foreign minister is acting prime minister.

The president of the Czech Republic is no great friend of the European Union (EU), the announcement  on 12 May that the country is not ready to adopt the Euro currency, all this is upsetting both government and citizens. The EU found that measures to cut the state budget deficit lacked detail. Estonia on the other hand was given the go-ahead to introduce the currency in 2011.

The French National Assembly on 11 May by a vote of 434 against zero approved a nonbinding resolution banning the wearing of the full face Islamic veil or “burqa” as an affront to national values of dignity and equality (30 communist deputies walked out in protest). Parliament will debate the law in July.

A few months ago a black-yellow coalition government of Germany appeared being under control and the Federal Chancellor could reap international praise and domestic support. Not today. In May, in state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia the majority Christian Democratic Union (CDU) lost heavily (from almost 45 percent of its share of votes down to 34.4 percent), a setback that was laid at the feet of the Chancellor. Then the premier of Hesse stepped down and on the last day of the month the Federal President resigned after some verbal blundering. While the Chancellor may have lacked in party leadership, another reason for the sorry state of affairs is the coalition partner, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and especially its leader. Some German newspapers criticize not only his lack of a plan for his party but his uncanny ability to provoke controversy, placing the coalition in embarrassing position, and not really helping to accomplish the coalition’s tasks. The party has to defend the antics of its leader and is wasting goodwill.

After the right-wing and conservative win in Hungary, the leader of the Federation of Young Democrats-Hungarian Civic Union (FiDeSz-MPSz) is asked to form the new government.

Upon news that the president of Poland, his wife—and numerous high officials—were killed in an aircraft crash in Russia, the presiding officer of the national legislature became acting president.

Like clockwork twice a year, San Marino installed two new heads of government, known as Captains General, for their six-month term.

***

Leaders of Egypt's National Democratic Party (NDP) say they want President Hosni Mubarak (born 4 May 1928) to run for office for a sixth 6-year term in next year's election. The prime minister expressed his expectation on 22 May and a few days later the party's secretary-general made similar comments.

***

The outlook for return of Fiji to democratic governance remains dim. A ministerial contact group of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) reported on 31 May that it found no signs of progress.

Elections in April

5 Sudan: Election of 450-seat National Assembly. The National Congress Party (NCP) obtained the majority with 73 percent or 306 seats.

5 Sudan: Presidential election. The incumbent of the National Congress (NC) is reelected in a vote that according to international observers failed to meet international standards.

5 Southern Sudan: Presidential election. The incumbent of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) is reelected.

8 Sri Lanka: Election of 196 of 225 seats of Parliament. The United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) gained the majority.

11/25 Hungary: Election of 386-seat National Assembly. The center-right Federation of Young Democrats-Hungarian Civic Union (FiDeSz-MPSz) won a landslide victory with the support of  right-wing nationalist Jobbik-The Movement for a Better Hungary.

18 Cyprus--Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC): Presidential election. The candidate of the nationalist National Unity Party (UBP) was elected and defeated the incumbent.

24 Nauru: Election of 18-seat Parliament in a non-partisan manner.

25 Austria: Election of the President by the Federal Assembly. The incumbent of the Socialdemocratic Party of Austria (SPŐ) was reelected.

Presidential candidacies

Belarus—in February 2011: The following opposition candidates have decided to enter the election: Alyaksandr Uładzimieravič Milinkevich (born 25 July 1947), physicist and candidate of the Movement for Freedom (4 May 2010); Ales Anatoljevich Mikhalevich (born 15 May 1975), lawyer and tourism executive, former Deputy Chairman of the Belarusian Popular Front “Revival” (NFB-A) (28 January 2010); Vital Rymasheuski (born 1974) , construction engineer and co-chairman of the Belarusian Christian Democracy Party (BKDP); and Andrei Sannikau (born 1954), ambassador and former deputy foreign minister and leader of European Belarus (15 March 2010).

Benin—in March 2011: Adrien Houngbédji (born 5 March 1942) , lawyer and former prime minister, will be a candidate for the fourth time for the Cauri Force for an Emerging Benin (FCBE) (10 April 2010).

Germany—on 30 June 2010: The Federal Assembly will elect a successor to the federal president who resigned on 31 May. At month’s end, the coalition parties which command a majority have not yet agreed on a candidate nor have the opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) and Greens.

Liberia—in 2011: President Ms. Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf (born 29 October 1938) of the Unity Party (UP) announced she will seek a second term despite an earlier campaign promise to limit herself to one term (25 January 2010).

Mali—in 2012: The President, (General) Amadou Toumani Touré (born 4 November 1948), announced he would step down at the end of his term on 8 June 2012 (19 April 2010).

Russia—in 2012: President Dmitriy Anatol’yevich Medvedev (born 14 September 1965) and Prime Minister Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin (born 7 October 1952), both belonging to the “presidential party” United Russia (YeR), may seek the presidential candidacy. Medvedev said so in an interview on 24 April and earlier Putin did not rule out the possibility. He has also said earlier that they would not run against each other.

Uganda—in 2011: Lt. General Yoweri Kaguta Museveni (probably born in August 1944), Chairman of the governing National Resistance Movement (NRM) is likely to stand for reelection. The Daily Monitor of Kampala  reports of a poll taken between 19 April and 6 May in which Ugandans although generally satisfied with the president revealed by almost seven out of every 10 respondents (68 percent) said he should quit. (In 1985, senior officers, incl. seized the government and in January 1986 the leader was ousted and replaced by the current president who ruled unelected until 1996 when he was popularly elected the first time for4 a five-year term. He was subsequently reelected in 2001 and 2006.) Norbert Mao (born 12 March 1967), lawyer and President of the opposition Democratic Party (DP) appears to be the joint candidate of the Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC) which includes the Conservative Party (CP), Forum for Democratic Choice (FDC), Justice Forum (JEEMA), and the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC).

Zimbabwe—in 2011: When the Global Political Agreement of September 2009 on power sharing ends in 2011 and depending on the revised constitution, new elections could be held. President Robert Gabriel Mugabe (born 21 February 1924) of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) said he would seek reelection if nominated by his party (4 March 2010). Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai (born 10 March 1952) of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) announced he will run again but did not specify the presidential office (7 March 2010).

Forecast July 2010 [see printed issue]

New National Leaders [see printed issue]

Country Notes 2010 [see printed issue]

WORLD TROUBLESPOTS

STATUS

High Threat Potential

Al-Qa’ida Islamic insurgency

CONGO (DR)-Rwanda North, South Kivu insurgency

SOMALIA Al Shaba’ab anti-government rebellion

SUDAN-Darfur equal rights struggle

INDIA-PAKISTAN-Jammu and Kashmir dispute, independence struggle

Korean Peninsula military confrontation, threats

PAKISTAN Kyber-Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP) insurgency

AFGHANISTAN-Pakistan regional strife, insurgency

IRAQ Ba’ath/Sunni anti-government and anti-coalition insurgencies