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SELECTED FROM RECENT ISSUES OF THE MONTHLY INTERNATIONAL OBSERVER
December 2010, No. 486
Viewing the World
Current Concerns
Unease on the Korean Peninsula
Southern Sudan referendum
Israeli-Palestinian talks
Presidential deadlock in Ivory Coast
The latest international conferences on climate
change in Cancún, Mexico, neither failed nor resulted in dramatic breakthroughs. Delegates from 193 countries met from 29 November through 11 December
and agreed to pursue plans for low-carbon development. The targets of
industrialized countries were recognized and there was agreement on a new global
framework to help developing countries to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. The next
Conference of the Parties (COP 17) will be held from 28 November to 9 December
2011 in Durban, South Africa.
There was relief when Ivory Coast finally held the first round of its
presidential elections in October and although again with delays the runoff
on 28 November. But that relief has turned into consternation, disbelief, and
repulsion after the election commission announced the winner, only to be
overruled by a court that voided the results and left the incumbent in place.
Incumbent President
Laurent Koudou Gbagbo and
president-elect Alassane Dramane Ouattara,
former prime minister and opposition candidate, are forming governments while
voters are literally up in arms and protests are becoming bloody and violent.
Outside Côte d’Ivoire there are protests too: The Special Representative of the
Secretary General of the United Nations (UN) told the Security Council on 7
December that the opposition candidate had won the election. On the same day,
the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) suspended the country’s
membership. Two days later, the African Union (AU) followed suit, and on 16
December, the European Union (EU) threatened sanctions as did the US Government
if the incumbent did not yield and step down.
One of the United States’ most effective and
forceful diplomats, Ambassador Richard C. Holbrooke, 69, died on 13 December following two operations to repair a broken aorta at a Washington DC
hospital. Serving last as Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan he
was the diplomatic and political leader in the US operation to restore
government control over areas attacked or seized by the Taliban Islamic militia
and other insurgents. Although the envoy served most of his life in the Foreign
Service—assistant secretary, UN chief representative, and ambassador to Germany,
he also held positions as editor and writer, director of the Peace Corps in
Morocco, and investment banker. He
rose to prominence when he achieved diplomatic breakthroughs in Bosnia and
Herzegovina after numerous meetings with Bosnian, Croatian, and Serb leaders.
Sometimes seen as arrogant and impatient in dealings with policymakers and
statesmen, Holbrooke cared deeply about the human cost of conflicts and the
victims of epidemics and natural disasters. He cared about younger people,
whether on his staff or visiting students interested in what diplomats do. His
close friends who took his rougher side in stride, loved to argue with him, but
paid him the highest compliment—he was true friend, one passionately engaged in
protecting humanity as well as his nation.
Italy’s Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi did not
meet his Waterloo on 15 December
when both houses of Parliament voted down a vote of no-confidence. On the
previous day, the Senate expressed its confidence by 162 against 135 votes and
11 abstentions. The Chamber of Deputies followed on the next day by a vote of
314 against 311. The parliamentary Pyrrhic victory was preceded by massive
street demonstrations against the man who is increasingly seen as imperious and
damaging the nation’s reputation by scandals surrounding him and his associates.
More demonstrations followed after the results of the no-confidence vote were
announced. The prime minister remains shielded from two suits in Milan and one
in Rome until the Constitutional Court will continue its hearing on a judicial
shield on 11 January. The legal cases involve alleged bribery of a witness and
tax frauds. With opposition against Berlusconi from former allies gaining—an
additional 100 deputies have joined the anti-Berlusconi center movement, it
appears that he is unlikely to finish his term.
The British government plan to introduce a five-year
fixed term for Parliament is being criticized for lessening accountability of parliamentary members. Although a fixed
term may bring greater stability to politics, as the deputy prime minister
claims, others maintain that the prime minister will lose the flexibility to
call for elections at a date favorable to the governing party.
Much to the displeasure of Israel, Brazil on 3
December, announced its recognition of Palestine as a state within the borders before 5 June 1967. On 6 December, Argentina too
recognized the state. Later, the European Union (EU) threatened with its
recognition if the peace talks were not continued.
The massive and controversial trial in Istanbul
against 196 members of the military started on 16 December. Known as Operation Sledgehammer
or Balyoz Operasyonu it centers on the
prosecution’s charge that it was aimed at ousting the pro-Islamic government and
banning the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The tool, it is alleged,
was a military operation to shoot down a Turkish fighter airplane over the
Aegean and bomb two mosques in Istanbul. The ensuing chaos then would have
offered the military justification to step in. Among those accused are the
former commanders of air force and navy and active generals.
Forecast [see printed issue]
November
2010, No. 485
Viewing the World
Current Concerns
Outbreak of new hostilities on the Korean Peninsula
Continuing Sino-Japanese dispute
Southern Sudan referendum
Israeli-Palestinian talks
Reverberations in the Euro zone
Taking the World’s Pulse
Corruption:
In nearly three-quarters of 178 countries there is corruption, reports the
international
watchdog group, Transparency International (TI) of Berlin*. Not surprisingly,
countries torn by conflict or with widespread poverty are perceived by those
surveyed as having the highest level of corruption: Congo (DR), Sudan, Chad,
Uzbekistan, Iraq, Afghanistan, Burma, and Somalia (at the bottom). Included
among countries where buying favors and services is still common are Belarus,
Ukraine, Zimbabwe, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela although some
improvements have been noted. The 10 countries where businesses are least likely
vulnerable to corruption are in descending order Denmark, New Zealand,
Singapore, Finland, Sweden, Canada, Netherlands, Australia, Switzerland, and
Norway. Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom rank among the top 20, followed
by the United States of America and France. Korea (ROK) (no. 39), Brazil (no.
69), China (no. 78), Morocco (no. 85), India (no. 87), and Mexico (no. 98)
remain in the middle and need stricter implementation of the United Nations
Convention against Corruption.
*Corruption Perceptions Index 2010, prepared by
Transparency International (TI). Berlin, Germany: 2010. www.transparency.org
Global warming: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in Geneva on 24 November
alerted that main greenhouse gases reached their highest levels recorded through
monitoring stations in 50 countries since 1750. Carbon dioxide (CO2)
contributes nearly two-thirds of gas concentrations. Methane (CH4)
and nitrous oxide (N2O) together contribute nearly 25 percent to the
overall global radiative force. The buildup of long-living greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere causes it to warm.
Global warming-Arctic: This year there was continued warming in the polar
region, incl. Greenland, melting ice cover and affecting weather in the northern
hemisphere. This development was announced on 21 October when the US National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its Arctic Report Card
2010. Since the loss of ice covers serves to further feed the warming
trend—Greenland’s capital recorded the warmest year in at least 138 years—the
expectation is that warming will continue.
Power balance:
The thrust of this year’s survey of the
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), launched in London on 7
September*, is the argument that changes in current economic and financial power
are having geopolitical consequences and the current
flux of international affairs is not easily manageable through regional or
global institutions. Another topic is that the rise of strategic self-confidence
in India and China continues, though their diffidence about shaping the
international strategic agenda as opposed to just defending their core interests
slows that rise. It is argued that the political and security architecture of
Asia will be much shaped by how these two powers act in the region, but also by
how a group of Asian middle powers defend their interests. In Europe, says IISS,
it is Turkey’s diplomatic activism and individualism that has most caught the
eye. Ankara has worked hard to improve its relations with all of its neighbors.
It has also taken a more independent line in pursuing its interests in the
Middle East. Strategic Survey 2010
does not seek to lay out a new comprehensive strategy for Afghanistan. It does
however argue, says Dr John Chipman, IISS Director General, that for Western
states to be pinned down militarily and psychologically in Afghanistan will not
be in the service of their wider political and security interests. The challenge
of Afghanistan must be viewed and addressed in proportion to the other threats
to international security and the other requirements for foreign-policy
investment.
*Strategic Survey for 2010: The Annual Review of World Affairs, Published by the
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). London: Routledge, Taylor
& Francis Group, 2010, 400 p. $86.00.
***
The situation in Madagascar is far from being settled.
The African Union (AU) wants the current president to step down and had hoped a
constitutional referendum on 17 November would help toward returning to an
elected government. But the three major parties boycotted the vote. Instead,
some military units attempted to overthrow the government. The coup d’état
was short-lived and the troops returned to their barracks leaving the
political stalemate in place. ***
Uruguay’s Supreme Court invalidated the 1986 law ending prosecution of military
officials
for human rights violations during the civil-military dictatorship from 1973
until 1985.
US mid-term federal and state elections on 2 November were a boon to the
opposition Republican Party and both a wake-up call and near-disaster for
President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party. The swing was not unexpected
but the range shocked those who thought voters would not be swayed much by
mean-spirited innuendo, massive contributions by concealed special interests,
and plenty of misinformation. Not that there were no serious matters to complain
about: stagnant economy, no jobs, insecurity, and the perception that the
government was coddling Wall Street and those who bought homes they could not
afford. It should also be mentioned that the president appeared to have involved
himself late in congressional races and his supporters missed signs of strong
leadership and fiery exhortation.
The outstanding result is control of the 435-seat House of Representatives
by at least 239 members of the Republican Party. They will now field the next
Speaker who is also third in line of succession of the president. All committees
will be headed by Republicans and Democrats will remain in the minority for at
least the next two years. The House is the source of funding bills and while the
upper house—still controlled by smaller number of Democrats—must also approve,
Republican moves to cut and redirect appropriations will seriously hamper the
Administration’s initiatives. At the state level, there are now 29 Republican
governors compared to 22 before and the number of state legislatures controlled
by Republicans has grown to 20 from 9. Democrats lost three houses but the
number of split legislatures has also dropped to 15 from 23.
One of the
influential senators of the Republican Party announced that the goal is to keep
the president from being reelected. Unless statesmen-like thinking prevails in
pursuing what is best for the country and its people—the job of legislators—the
years until 6 November 2012 will be marked by acts of political expediency and
not necessarily by national interest.
***
Winning candidates in legislative elections in Afghanistan
were announced on 24 November, two months after the polls. Of the 2,500
candidates for 249 seats, 225 were certified and a total of 24 disqualified. The
results of the vote for 11 seats of Ghazni province still have to be determined,
says the Independent Election Commission
(IEC).
The 14th Dalai Lama plans to step down as head of the
government-in-exile next year, it was announced on 23 November. The
former Tenzin Gyatso (born 6 July
1935) from Qinghai Province was recognized as spiritual life-long leader of
Tibetan Buddhists in 1950 at the age of 15 and fled to India in 1959 when the
Chinese People’s Liberation Army invaded Tibet.
The Indian home minister on 26 November announced a multi-million dollar plan to
counter Naxalite insurgency with public services. The government plans to work
on drinking water, health care, roads, and schools in 60 tribal and backward
districts in nine states.
***
The European Union (EU) is developing a strategy for the Danube region
which will be approved in December. Involving eight EU members and six Balkan
countries, Moldova, and Ukraine, the EU Action Plan for the Danube is designed
to strengthen cooperation in four areas:
There is one obstacle less toward European integration.
On 24 November, the Constitutional Tribunal of Poland declared that the 2007
Treaty of Lisbon does not infringe upon the country’s constitution. People in
the United Kingdom who remain two minds about the EU were told a day later by
their Minister for Europe that ‘it is in the national interest of the UK to be a
member of the European Union.”
Bosnia and Herzegovina will remain at least another year under tutelage of the
European Union (EU). The UN Security Council approved the
year-long mandate for the EU Stabilization Force (EUFOR) on 18 November and
called B&H political leaders to take steps toward EU integration and refrain
from their divisive rhetoric.
The French president decided to stay his course while
political tension has been mounting for months over anti-immigration moves,
delayed retirement, and education reform. To strengthen the
government, the change of cabinet ministers on 14 November saw the return
of former Prime Minister Alain Juppé,
the retention of Ms. Christine Lagarde
as Economy Minister, and the promotion of Justice Minister Ms. Michèle
Alliot-Marie to the Foreign Ministry
replacing Socialist Bernard Kouchner
MD. All three ministers are conservatives and it appears that the president will
run for reelection in 2012 on his
record of reforms with their support.
The German chancellor has changed her liberal attitude on immigration,
falling in line with less forthcoming views on immigrants from Islamic countries
inside the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Bavarian Christian Social
Union (CSU). The switch became public on 28 October when the chancellor declared
that multiculturalism in Germany had failed. She even echoed controversial views
made earlier in a book by a former board member of the central bank and member
of the Socialist Democratic Party (SPD) who claimed that the integration of
immigrants from Islamic countries lowered economic and social levels in European
countries.
Moldova is trying anew to get Russian troops out of its disputed Dniestr region.
On 12 November, the president asked the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO) to help convince Russia to withdraw its peacekeepers and replace them
with civilian observers. First Soviet and then Russian troops have been present
continuously in the so-called Transdniestrian Moldovan Republic which is not
recognized by any state.
The leader of Chechnya keeps minimizing the number of militants
and claims he has everything under control. But the Russian president sees
matters in a different light and said on 19 November that the situation
in the North Caucasus has almost not improved. He acknowledged that some
steps were taken to support people who are combating the militants but that the
number of attacks, bombings, and murders is not going down, a total of 64,000
incidents during the past 10 months.
Sweden’s parliament approved several constitutional amendments
on 24 November. The new constitution will enter into force on 1 January 2011 and
will bring it in line with membership in the European Union (EU). Major changes
include the requirement for the newly elected prime minister to be confirmed by
the legislature, introduces a uniform election day (second Sunday in September
every four years), strengthens protection of ethnic, linguistic, and religious
minorities, and makes it easier to enforce local referenda.
***
Eight months after elections, Iraq has a prime minister
but not yet a government [p. 4417]. The breakthrough came on 7 November when
political leaders agreed on sharing power. On 25 November, the president named
incumbent Nuri al-Maliki of the
Shi’ite National Iraqi Alliance (INA) to form a government. His Shi’a rival,
former Interim Prime Minister A’yad
Allawi of the Iraqi National Accord (INA) does not share the optimism that
the country will finally have a stable government.
***
Australia’s prime minister is seeking formal legal recognition of the
continent’s half-a-million plus aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders
by 2013. She announced her plan for constitutional recognition on 9 November and
is making preparations for a referendum next year.
Forecast [see printed issue]
New National Leaders [see printed issue]
Reference Paper: Dependent Areas Political Profiles, 27 p.
[see printed issue]
Reference Paper—Brazil: 2nd Lula da Silva Cabinet [see printed issue]
Reference Paper—Mexico: 1st Calderon Presidency [see printed issue]
Reference Paper—Sweden: 2nd Reinfeldt Cabinet [see printed issue]
Info/Literature [see printed issue]
(Issue contains 42 pages)
October
2010, No. 484
Viewing the World
Current Concerns
Continuing Sino-Japanese dispute
Sino-US trade disputes
Southern Sudan referendum
Stalling Israeli-Palestinian talks
Lagging government formation in Iraq, Nepal, Belgium
Taking the World’s Pulse
African governance:
Mauritius again ranks tops while Somalia remains at the bottom. The
fourth annual survey tracking the quality of government in 53 African countries
places Mauritius (2009: no. 1), Seychelles (no. 3), Botswana (no. 4), Cape Verde
(no. 2), and South Africa (no. 5) in
the top five places.
Liberia’s score showed the biggest increase and
Angola’s score also rose steadily over four years as did Togo’s. More than 40
countries showed some improvement but governance standards declined in Eritrea
and Madagascar. At the bottom of the 2010 survey are Zimbabwe (no. 49; 2009: no.
51), Eritrea (no. 50; no. 46), Congo (DR) (no. 51; no. 50); Chad (no. 52; no.
52), and Somalia (no. 53; no. 53).
The so-called Ibrahim Index of African Governance
runs from a combined high grade of 83.0 to 7.9 (2009: 82.8 to 15.2).
There are 11 countries in mid-range, incl. Algeria, Benin, Egypt, Ghana,
***
Economic losses:
One source of losses to national economies that is routinely overlooked
is neglect and destruction of ecosystems and organisms, both animal and
botanical. This conclusion and warning was delivered to the 10th
Meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP 10) to the Convention on
Biological Diversity which was held from 18-28 October in Nagoya, Aichi
Prefecture, Japan. The so-called The
Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) report* finds that the
invisibility of many of nature’s services to the economy results in widespread
neglect. The destruction of nature has now reached levels where serious social
and economic costs are being felt and will be felt at an accelerated pace if
‘business as usual’ is continued. Overall annual losses range in the billions of
dollars while two examples demonstrate commercial benefits: coral reefs offer
$172 million in gains while the pollination by insects equals an annual 153
million in income.
*Mainstreaming the Economics of Nature: A synthesis of the approach, conclusions
and recommendations of TEEB, UN Environmental Program (UNEP), TEEB, Bonn,
Germany, 2010. Hunger:
The
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in Rome has
identified 22 countries which are facing enormous challenges like repeated food
crises and an extremely high presence of hunger. Causes are a combination of
natural disasters, conflict, and weak institutions. The majority of the
countries are in Africa (17) while four are located in Asia, and one in the
Caribbean: Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo
(B), Congo (DR), Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea, Haiti, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Kenya,
Korea (DPRK), Liberia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Tajikistan, Uganda, and
Zimbabwe.
***
New members are chosen for the Security
Council.
In three rounds of voting, the General Assembly of the United Nations
by a two-thirds vote elected five nations as non-permanent members of the
Security Council on 12 October. The following will serve a term of two years
starting on 1 January 2011:
The five will replace Austria, Japan, Mexico,
Turkey, and Uganda.
***
Practicing and would-be politicians in Nigeria came in for a nasty surprise
on 24 October when the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) published
a list of more than 100 people who will be unsuitable to run for public office.
At least 40 of them are politicians, one is running for president, 13 are former
state governors, 5 are former cabinet ministers, and another 5 are serving
legislators. All will be prosecuted for corruption.
Zimbabwe's prime minister is thinking about pulling out of the Government of
National Unity, reports the Financial Gazette
of Harare on 22 October. After continued violations of the 2008 Global Political
Agreement by the president and his party, the government head is now convinced
that the only way to end interference is to win in the next presidential
election. One indication of how bad relations between president and prime
minister have become is the possibility that the latter will sue the president
in court over illegal appointments.
***
The second round of
presidential elections in Brazil on 31 October, a runoff between the
two candidates of the governing ruling Workers’ Party (PT) and the opposition
Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB), finished, not unexpectedly, with the
victory by the PT. Former Presidential Chief of Staff Ms. Dilma Vana
Rouseff (born 14 December 1947) who
lacks elected political experience but benefitted greatly from strong support by
the current president and her party will assume the presidency on 1 January 2011
and become Brazil’s first woman head of state. Much of her support from voters
was in response to her pledge to eradicate poverty which touches 20 million
Brazilians. She obtained 56 percent of votes cast and her challenger, former
Governor São Paulo, José Serra (born 19 March 1942), 44 percent.
Not too much attention was paid outside South America when police protesters in
Ecuador
The Dutch dependency of the Netherlands Antilles was dissolved
on 10 October. Its five component islands are being integrated into the Kingdom
of the Netherlands as follows: Curaçao, autonomous country; Bonaire, autonomous
special municipality; Saba, autonomous special municipality;
Sint Eustasius,
autonomous special municipality; and Sint Maarten, autonomous country.
The US White House made two major personnel changes.
Following the departure of the president's chief of staff to seek the mayor's
position in Chicago, senior advisor Peter Mikami
Rouse (born 15 April 1946) succeeded
him on 1 October. Before joining the White House staff in 2009, he served as
congressional staff member for 30 years. The Principal Deputy National Security
Adviser, Thomas E.
Donilon (born 1955), lawyer, became
National Security Adviser on 8 October, succeeding (General) James L.
Jones who resigned.
***
The Afghan Peace Council went underway this month. Initiated
by the president in June to foster reconciliation with the Taliban, the 68
hand-picked members held their first meeting on 7 October and elected a chairman
three days later. He is Prof. Burhanuddin
Rabbani (born 1940)
Two states are preparing for the succession of their leaders, China and North
Korea.
At the end of the 5th plenary session of the 17th Central
Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on 15-18 October, Vice President
Xi Jinping (born June 1953) was
promoted Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC). It is expected
that he will assume the offices of General Secretary and President in 2012 when
the incumbent has to retire. Although belonging to a generation of privileged
offspring of communist revolutionaries (his father later suffered through 15
years of imprisonment before being rehabilitated), deprivation taught him to
survive and proceed cautiously. BBC
reports that Xi has good relations with the preceding General Secretary and is
his preferred choice and was promoted not because of but in spite of the current
president’s preference.
In North
Korea, the leader's youngest son, Kim
Jong-un (born 1983 or 1984),
was awarded the rank of army general on 27 September and suddenly the photograph
of the invisible heir was prominently showing on television. Analysts assume
that this was in preparation for the youngest Kim to succeed his father (A day
later, delegates of the Conference of the Korean Workers' Party (KWP) re-elected
Kim senior General Secretary).
Elections in Kyrgyzstan on 10 October were relatively free and transparent.
Five of 29 parties won seats but none obtained a majority. Thus they are
compelled to form a workable coalition government which, unfortunately, may also
be the beginning of new political strife. Three of the parties not only oppose
the new Constitution, but wish to return to a strong presidential system, and
are more inclined to restore an authoritarian regime like in neighboring Russia.
The Interim Constituent Assembly of
Nepal on 6 October failed for the 10th
time to elect the 34th Prime Minister, likewise on 8,10, and 26
October.
***
The Party of European Socialists (PES) is
moving ahead with plans to isolate
extremist parties. On 15 October it asked all political parties to refuse
alliances, coalitions, and support from any party that incites ethnic and racial
hatred. PES would also sideline mainstream parties that you do not abide by a
proposed code of conduct.
On 1 December, the first anniversary of the Lisbon
Treaty, the diplomatic service of the
European Union (EU) will be launched. The so-called European External Action
Service (EEAS) will have a staff of about 6,000 to represent the EU in capitals
around the world.
What shocked and surprised observers when Vienna held elections
on 10 October was the strong showing of the extreme right-wing
Freedom Party
of Austria (FPÖ). Mainly at the expense of the governing Austrian Social
Democratic Party (SPÖ) and the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) it
increased the share of votes by 13 percent to 27 percent. Riding the
anti-immigrant trend of Western Europe, the FPÖ also benefited from losses in
the elections in Styria.
Buoyed by gains in voter support, the same
FPÖ invited
like-minded parties from Belgium, Italy, Slovakia, and Sweden for a non-public
meeting on 22-23 October in the Austrian capital to discuss ways to undercut
efforts by the European Union toward centralization.
Belgian coalition talks remained deadlocked at month’s end. The nationalist New Flemish
Alliance (N-VA) made a strong showing in the June elections and is pushing for
giving the regions, especially Dutch-speaking Flanders, more power, a
development that is opposed by the other parties since it could lead to the
dissolution of the kingdom.
The
Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD)
won additional seats in
the second round of partial Senate elections on 23 October and with 41 seats for
the first time in the country’s history now commands absolute majority in the
second chamber.
This month,
France approved two major legislative measures when it banned Muslim
full-face veils, the burqa, in public and raised the retirement age from 60 to
62 years. It is the second law that is still causing widespread protests and
strikes. The government’s public standing was further diminished by its
ham-handed treatment of Roma which nearly led to a severe reprimand from the
European Union (EU).
A new government was formed in the Netherlands on 14
October with help from the extreme right-wing
Party for
Freedom (PVV).
Although
it is not represented in the cabinet, the price for its parliamentary support
will be a ban on the public wearing of the burqa, reports the Dutch press.
Switzerland will remain vigilant but will not jeopardize civil rights. The Federal
Council on 27 October decided that the internal intelligence service will be
banned from conducting technical surveillance in places that are not generally
accessible and will not be allowed to monitor computer and telephone traffic
preventatively.
Britain's new government is even less inclined to give in to further federal
moves
by the European Union (EU). The Conservatives will examine the case for a UK
Sovereignty Bill, the foreign secretary announced on 6 October. Once adopted, EU
directives will only take effect in the UK after approval by Parliament which
could rescind it later.
After reviewing government spending, major cuts
totaling £81,000 million over five years will be made. They will affect welfare,
government departments and schools and an estimated 490,000 public sector jobs
will be eliminated.
***
Seven months since legislative elections were held
but there’s still no government in Iraq.
Initially there was some uncertainty about the final distribution of
parliamentary seats but now it comes down to agreeing to a compromise whether
the prime minister should be chosen from the Sunni or the Shi’a bloc of parties.
The situation becomes more muddled by overt and private suggestions from Iran,
Syria, and the United States. The Kurds have been described as kingmakers but
after a split of one of the parties their role too may be limited. The latest
offer by the king of Saudi Arabia on 30 October to hold all-party crisis talks
in Riyadh was quickly rejected a day later by the Shi’ite National Alliance.
Forecast [see printed issue]
New National Leaders [see printed issue]
Country Notes [see printed issue]
Information Aid: National Legislative and Presidential Elections, 10 p.
[see printed issue]
Reference Paper—Australia: 2nd Gillard Ministry [see printed issue]
Reference Paper—Japan: 2nd Kan Cabinet [see printed issue]
Reference Paper—Kuwait: 6th Nasser Cabinet [see printed issue]
Reference Paper-Mauritius: 2nd Ramgoolam Cabinet [see printed issue]
Documentation: Fifth Plenum of the 17th Central Committee of the
Chinese Communist Party Communique [see printed issue]
Info/Literature [see printed issue]
(Issue contains 44 pages)
September 2010, No. 483
Viewing the World
Current Concerns
Sino-Japanese island dispute
Southern Sudan referendum
Israeli-Palestinian talks
Lagging government formation in Iraq, Nepal, Belgium
Taking the World’s Pulse
Failing states:
For centuries, the ability of a state to control its territory was the measure
whether it failed. Now there are more sophisticated criteria and they also
explain why findings in some reports vary. The Fund for Peace index of failed
states which is published in Foreign
Policy magazine of Washington DC was
started in 2005 . This year’s index covers 177 countries which are rated by 12
metrics of state decay. At the bottom of the list are 10 states with the worst
ranking, a score higher than 102, compared to 18 at the top:
177 Somalia
176 Zimbabwe
175 Sudan
174 Congo (DR)
173 Iraq 172 Afghanistan 171 Central African Republic 170 Guinea 169 Pakistan 168 Ivory Coast
Seven of the most vulnerable states are in
Africa, the other three in Asia.
Global governance:
Demands for effective global governance are driven by economic interdependence,
links between international challenges, and interwoven national and foreign
challenges, notes an unclassified combined US-European intelligence study*. It
estimates that in 2025 global power will be shared as follows: 1-United States
of America, 22 percent; 2-European Union (EU), 16 percent; 3-China, 12 percent;
4-India, 8 percent; 5-Japan, 4.8 percent; 6-Russia, 4 percent, and 7-Brazil, 3
percent.
*Global Governance 2025: At a Critical
Juncture, National Intelligence Council. Washington DC: Office of the
Director of National Intelligence, NIC 2010-08, September 2010 and Institute for
Security Studies (EUISS) of the European Union.
Global warming:
If temperatures rise by as little as 2 degrees Centigrade, Greenland’s ice mass
will disappear during the next decade, scientists told the Committee on Energy
Independence and Global Warming of the US House of Representatives in August. If
the temperate rises even higher, the entire ice shield will be demolished. Not
only would there be a global sea-level rise of up to 7 meters but low-lying
cities and land would vanish.
Humanitarian emergencies:
In 2009, some 860 natural catastrophes occurred worldwide (750 in 2008), most of
them weather-related as in 2008, reports Worldwatch Institute of Washington DC.
Overall data on human loss is not yet available but
the WHO Center for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) found that in
2009 natural disasters killed 235,000 people, affected 214,000,000 people and
cost US$190,000 million in 2008. Economic losses in 2009 from natural disasters
were the lowest since 2001, about $22,000 million.
Hunger:
At close to one billion, the number of undernourished
people in the world remains unacceptably high
in 2010 despite an expected decline–-the first in
15 years, says the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in Rome. This decline
is largely attributable to a
more favorable economic environment in 2010–-particularly
in developing countries–-and the fall in
both international and domestic food prices since
2008. The recent increase in food prices, if it persists,
will create additional obstacles in the fight to further
reduce hunger.
FAO estimates that a total of 925 million people
are undernourished in 2010 compared with 1,023 million
in 2009. That is higher than before the food
and economic crises of 2008-2009 and higher than
the level that existed when world leaders agreed to
reduce the number of hungry by half at the World
Food Summit in 1996.
Most of the world’s hungry live in developing
countries, where they account for 16 percent of the population. While this
figure marks an improvement
compared to 2009, it is still well above the target
set by the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 1 of
halving the proportion of undernourished people in
developing countries from 20 percent in 1990-92 to
10 percent in 2015.
Unemployment:
The number of jobless worldwide reached nearly 212 million in 2009 following an
unprecedented increase of 34 million compared to 2007, on the eve of the global
crisis,
reports the United Nation’s International Labor Office (ILO) in Geneva*.
Major findings in the report:
*Global Employment Trends
by the International Labour Office. Geneva: 2010.
Engagement or mission creep?
Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the Atlantic Alliance has been searching
for a new mission. This led to the current engagement of forces of members of
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Afghanistan although
geographically the area is outside its purview. Now the organization is casting
an eye on international non-traditional threats. To this end, the International
Staff on 4 August added an Emerging Security Challenges Division (ESCD) to focus
on cyber defense, energy security, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
(WMD), and terrorism.
***
Canada calling itself the “true North,” is actively demonstrating its Arctic
presence.
One of the trans-arctic nations, it is setting up a new research station in the
Far North. Someone no less than the prime minister announced on 24 August that
the High Arctic Research Station would be located at Cambridge Bay, Nunavut, and
be in operation by 2017. In addition to gaining more scientific information,
maintaining a presence which would help bolster Canada’s claim to disputed
territory, the government’s attention seeks to help further development and
inspire young Canadians to engage themselves in the North.
US Republican plan seen as repeat of Bush failures.
A “Pledge to America,” an election campaign program was announced on 23
September by the leadership of the Republican Party in the US House of
Representatives. The president, two days later, in his weekly address
attacked the agenda which he characterized as designed by architects of
previous failed economic policies favoring millionaires, financial, and special
interests. Republican supporters say cutting the government to a small size,
rolling back regulation of business, stopping mandatory health insurance, and
lowering taxes across the board is the way to regain economic growth and create
jobs.
***
Kashmir is restless.
Since 1947, there has been no solution and India’s promise to hold a referendum
to allow Kashmiris decide on their future is not even talked about. Pakistan has
not shown any real support for years due to its preoccupation with Afghanistan,
its tribal areas, and with India.
The latter is trying to keep things quiet as demonstrated by publishing as
little as possible about clashes with security forces and Kashmiri casualties.
Only when the severity rises and the numbers grow is information found in the
Indian press. Islamic militants from Pakistan are present but the demonstrators
are mainly young people who are still throwing stones but may move on to more
lethal means. Just like in Palestine where the throwing of objects has turned
into firefights by a new generation.
Iraq remains without new government.
The general view was that after 31 August there would be movement on forming a
government in Iraq. The US has prodded but is at a disadvantage because it is
not on good terms with the two neighbors who could influence the situation, Iran
and Syria. Both would like to expand their influence but realize that
Iraqis would not welcome their support wholeheartedly. Even Shi’ites will prefer
an Arab and Iraqi solution and Sunnis are loath of any effort by Baath adherents
in Syria.
Will Pakistan arrest former ruler?
The Sindh High Court on 10 August declared former military ruler (General)
Pervez Musharraf an offender and
makes him subject to arrest should he return to Pakistan from his exile in
London. The former army chief has announced several times that he plans to
return, form a political party, and even stand for the presidency.
***
The search in Belgium for a governing coalition remains stymied
after the government fell apart in May. Elections in June gave Flemish
nationalists in the North a boost although they lack parliamentary strength to
split the country in half.
Germany’s defense minister is determined to reshape defense,
ranging from abolishing conscription, restructuring forces, to cutting strength
from 250,00 to between 165,000 and 180,00.
Italy’s government did not fall on 29 September
after a falling out with Gianfranco Fini
but new elections are not completely off the table. The president
says that would be bad for the country, a sentiment shared by the leader
the Democratic Party (PD) Pier Luigi
Bersani who nevertheless thinks the country should get rid of Silvio
Berlusconi because “democracy is at
stake.” The prime minister has worked on a new program and was ready for
confrontation with the president of the Chamber of Deputies when he received a
weak vote of confidence.
Neighborly support from Romania for Moldova.
The latter’s continuing effort to resolve the dispute with Transdniestria which
since 1990 has resisted reintegration received a neighbor’s strong backing.
Romania, itself suspected of wishing to regain what was once part of it, on 19
August declared its support for Moldova’s territorial integrity and its
opposition to continued occupation by a so-called Russian military peacekeeping
contingent.
Switzerland now has a majority of women in its seven-member cabinet
but the outlook for major reforms is dim. On 10 September, a commission rejected
a proposed expansion of the Federal Council to 9 members, impeachment, term
limits, and election of cabinet members by party lists.
***
Iraq standing still but not at ease.
The United Nations extended the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq
(UNAMI) for another year until 31 July 2011 and the US withdrew combat troops on
31 August. The latter action was believed to help remove an obstacle to forming
a government after elections were held in March. But talks about forming a
coalition have been broken off and the stalemate continues. There is a two-vote
difference of parliamentary strengths between the secular Iraqqiya bloc which
describes itself as nationalist and the State of Law party bloc. More deeply
rooted, however, are personal differences between the two leaders and the fact
that Iraqqiya is seen as Sunni group by the majority Shi’a who support the other
bloc.
Saudi king rules on fatwas.
There is no central authority in Islam, especially not a secular one. A number
of rulers of Muslim countries are called “Defenders of the Faith” in their
numerous titles but generally they are not the ones who can decide who may issue
a religious ruling on Islamic law known as “fatwa.”. It is indicative of the
role of the King of Saudi Arabia when he decreed on 12 August that only members
of the Saudi Council of Senior Scholars are permitted to issue a fatwa.
No progress in the Western Sahara.
The United Nations (UN) have in fact thrown up their hands and given up to lead
to a resolution of the disputed Western Sahara. In August, the UN envoy declared
that neither Morocco nor POLISARIO which runs the so-called Sahrawi Arab
Democratic Republic with strong support from Algeria are compromising. The UN
would like an outsider like France, Spain, or the United States to get the two
sides to agree on a settlement.
***
Labor continues in Canberra.
Like the British election earlier this year, the new Australian government was
formed by a coalition. With a razor-thin majority and depending on four
independent legislators in the House of Representatives, Prime Minister Julia
Gillard’s agenda will be heavily
circumscribed.
*** Elections in June
1 Egypt: Election of 176 of 264-seat
Shura Council.
The ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) continues to maintain its majority
with 88 seats.
9
Netherlands: Election of 150-seat
Second Chamber. The People’s
Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the Labor Party (PvdA) gain the most
votes but no majority while the new, anti-Islam Party for Freedom (PVV) jumps to
third place.
12 Slovakia: Election of 150-seat
National Council. The governing Direction-Social
Democracy (SMĚR)
obtains a plurality of seats but remains short of the majority which is held by
a coalition of four opposition parties.
13 Belgium: Election of 150-seat
Chamber of Representatives and 71-seat Senate. No party obtained a majority in
either house but the New Flemish Alliance (NVA), formerly in coalition with the
Christian Democratic and Flemish (CD&V), gained plurality which is seen in the
media as a victory for Flemish-speaking Flanders.
19 Nauru: Election of 18-seat
Parliament which remains deadlocked.
20 Colombia: 2nd round of
presidential election. Juan Manuel
Santos Calderón of the Social Party of National Unity (PSUN) obtains 69
percent and is elected President.
28 Burundi: First direct election of
president. Incumbent
President Pierre Nkurunziza of the
National Council for the Defense of Democracy-Forces for the Defense of
Democracy (CNDD-FDD) remains the only candidate. He is reelected by 91.6 percent
of votes cast.
29 Hungary: Presidential election by
the National Assembly.
Speaker Pál Schmitt
obtained 68 percent of votes cast and was elected President.
30 Germany: Election of Federal
President by the 14th Federal Assembly.
Premier of Lower Saxony Christian Wulff
of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is elected 10th Federal
President in the third round.
Presidential candidacies
Belarus—on 19 December 2010:
A total of 19 candidates have applied to the Central Elections Commission
including
President Alyaksandr Ryhoravič
Lukashenko (born 30 August 1954)
(24 September 2010) for a fourth 7-year term:
Alyaksandr Uładzimieravič
Milinkevich (born 25 July 1947),
candidate of the Movement for Freedom (4 May 2010) and physicist, cancelled on
17 September.
Ms. Natalia Starikova, nurse,
"Chenki" sanatorium (Gomel region), said on 27 September that she had withdrawn
[Updating IO, p. 4223].
Cameroon--in 2011:
Louis Tobie Mbida MD (born 21 April
1956) returned from 13 years of voluntary exile in Germany and France and
announced in August that he plans to be a candidate for the presidency. He is
the son the country’s first prime minister, President of the Cameroonian Party
of Democrats (PDC), and a practicing doctor.
Congo (DR)—on 27 November 2011:
Etienne Tshisekedi wa Malumba (born
14 December 1932), President of the opposition Union for Democracy and Social
Progress (UDPS) and former prime minister, announced his candidacy on 18 August.
Vital Kamerhe (born 1961), former
Speaker of the National Assembly and former Secretary General of the governing
People’s Party for Reconciliation and Development (PPRD), announced his
candidacy on 28 July. Elie Nsangala
Mundendi (born 11 October 1954), President of the Dynamics of Opposition
Moldova—in ?
The referendum to change the election of a president from indirect by the
legislature to direct by the voters failed. Since the legislature also failed
several times to fulfill its constitutional obligation to elect a head of state,
new elections are required. Prime Minister Vlad Filat (born 6 May 1969) of the
Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova (PLDM)said on 3 August that he would run for
president.
Nigeria—in 2011:
President, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan
(born 20 November 1957) of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), was approved as
presidential candidate by the PDP National Executive Committee on 13 August.
Some of his supporters maintain that the president should contest the 2011
election and continue to fill the unexpired term of his predecessor, due in
2015.
The president, a Christian from the South, will be opposed by former General
Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (born 17
August 1941), a Muslim from the North,
who seized the government in 1985, ruled until 1993, and declared his
candidacy on 16 August. On the day before, former Vice President Alhaji Atiku
Abubakar (born 25 November 1946),
also a Muslim from the North, announced his intention to become the presidential
candidate of the PDP.
Russia—in 2012:
Prime Minister Vladimir Vladimirovich
Putin (born 7 October 1952)
Uganda—in 2011:
Lt. General Yoweri Kaguta Museveni
(probably born in August 1944), Chairman of the governing National Resistance
Movement (NRM) on 29 August announced his candidature for Chairman of the NRM,
the steppingstone to another term as President.
August 2010, No. 482 Annual Survey of Independent Nations Country Political Data Part 2: Macedonia-Zimbabwe 19th Edition
July 2010, No. 481 Annual Survey of Independent Nations Country Political Data Part 1: Afghanistan-Luxembourg 19th Edition
June 2010, No. 480
Viewing the World
Current Concerns
Cleanup and reconstruction after
oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico
Korean Peninsula war threats
The delay in forming a government in Iraq
Iran’s nuclear power stance
Eurozone and financial safety net
Around the globe, civil liberties and political rights declined in 2009.
Any survey of the progress of liberty remains skewed. Militants around the world
continue to resort to violent action against governments and fellow human beings
for reasons ranging from acceptable to despicable, from reaching for
self-determination, fighting repression to ethnic, religious, and social goals,
to criminal endeavors. Even governments in the free world fighting militants are
turning to measures, especially against Arabs and Muslims, which are at best
applied arbitrarily, and often clash with democratic values and international
law. In some states of the not-so-free world, application of these measures is
even worse. There is another reason for uneven progress: Governance or better
the lack of it or its defects. Nearly all of the countries lacking in civil
liberties and political rights have expertly written constitutions guaranteeing
rights but for cultural and historical reasons lag behind in fully understanding
democratic rights. In countries ruled by single individuals or parties or by
cliques, the overriding goal is to keep and stay in power, often with the aim of
enriching themselves.
The number of
electoral democracies dropped by three and stands at 116. Developments in four
countries—Honduras, Madagascar, Mozambique, and Niger—disqualified them from the
electoral democracy list, while conditions in the Maldives improved enough for
it to be added.
The not-for-profit research and advocacy organization, reports that in 2009 89
(89) countries were judged free,
accounting for nearly half of the world’s population. Those judged
partly free number 58 (62), while
about 44 percent of the world’s population live in
not free countries—47 (42). About one-half of those in last group
inhabit one country:
Freedom House highlights the following regional changes:
Africa--Declines
were seen in Botswana and Lesotho, with the latter declining from Free to Partly
Free. In addition, declines were noted in Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Guinea,
Madagascar, and Niger, and in two of the region’s most repressive regimes,
Eritrea and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Improvements were noted in Malawi,
Burundi, Togo, and Zimbabwe.
Americas--Latin
America experienced significant setbacks in 2009, particularly in Central
America. Honduras lost its status as an electoral democracy due to a coup, and
Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Venezuela also registered declines.
Asia--Improvements
were noted in Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Mongolia. Declines were documented
in Afghanistan after a deeply flawed presidential poll and in the Philippines
after the massacre of civilians and members of the press and the subsequent
declaration of martial law. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan were downgraded from
Partly Free to Not Free.
Europe--
Western Europe has struggled to deal with the influx of immigrants from Muslim
countries and the rise of anti-immigration policies, which contributed to
declines in Switzerland and Malta. Improvements were seen throughout the
Balkans, with Kosovo moving from Not Free to Partly Free after its recent
elections and Montenegro moving up to the Free category. By contrast, virtually
all of the countries in the non-Baltic former Soviet Union continued to pursue a
repressive course, including Russia.
Middle East and
North Africa--Repression
in Iran led to score declines, and other countries in the region suffered a
number of setbacks. Jordan, Bahrain, and Yemen were all downgraded from Partly
Free to Not Free. Declines were also noted in Morocco and the Palestinian
Territories. Lebanon and Iraq registered improvements.
Countries receiving the lowest rating for lack of political rights or civil
liberties comprise the following:
*Freedom in the World 2010,
Just as last year, the
poor state of governance in some African
countries is underlined by the announcement of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation of
London on 13 June that the annual leadership award will not be handed out this
year although the overall standard of governance in African countries is
improving. The chairman of the Foundation said “Whether
there is a winner or not, the purpose of the Foundation is to challenge those in
Africa and across the world to debate what constitutes excellence in
leadership," adding that the standards set for the Prize winner are high, and
the number of potential candidates each year is small. So it is likely that
there will be years when no Prize is awarded. In the current year, no new
candidates emerged." Looking toward the future, leadership fellowships will be
launched to identify and prepare the next generation of outstanding African
leaders at multilateral institutions.
At a meeting of the
Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) which ended on 27 June in Addis Ababa,
the five East African countries that signed a new agreement held firm on their
commitments against the opposition of Egypt and Sudan. The five countries are
Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda.
The president of the Central African
Republic is allowed to stay in office beyond his term and until new
elections are held.
The same holds true for the president of the
Comoros, however, his authority will be limited.
Nigeria’s
acting president became president with full powers.
Sudan’s and Southern Sudan’s presidents started their new terms after
reelection.
***
Costa Rica
inaugurated its first woman president.
The new prime minister of Trinidad and Tobago is the first woman to head the islands’
government.
The United
States Congress lost its longest serving member Robert C.
Byrd, 92, a member of the Democratic
Party of the mountain state of West Virginia. He served in the House of
Representatives from 1952 until 1958 when he was elected to the US Senate in
which he served until his death on 28 June in a hospital in Fairfax, Virginia.
He started out with strong conservative and anti-civil rights views and later
became a supporter of some progressive legislation without fully embracing
liberal agendas. His loss will not change the political balance since the
Democratic state governor will appoint a Democratic replacement.
***
China’s
State Council appearing to be welcoming citizen’s freedom of speech on the
internet, says it has a right to censor the internet as a matter of national
sovereignty. The white paper on internet policy released on 8 June lists
gambling, pornographic, and religious sites that will be banned or censored and
prosecuted as well as those that pose a threat to state power, national unity,
and security.
The acting President of Kyrgyzstan,
the country’s first woman to hold the highest office, becomes
president until the end of 2011 but is barred from running for office then.
During a sitting of
Pakistan's Supreme Court on 2 June, one of the judges observed that
“the will of the people was above the Constitution and upholding and protecting
that will was the ultimate objective of every organ and functionary of the
state,” reports Dawn.
***
The North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will cut the number of its headquarters
from 11 to 5. Its 14 agencies are to be reduced to three, the secretary general
proposed at a meeting of defense ministers on 10 June in Brussels.
Germany’s
federal president resigned and the president of the Federal Parliament’s second
chamber, the Bundesrat, became acting president. A Federal Assembly, composed of
all members of both houses of parliament and of an equal number of
representatives, elected by state legislatures, will chose the next federal
president.
In Hungary, the leader of the
Federation of Young Democrats-Hungarian Civic Union (FiDeSz-MPSz) heads a new
government.
In the ongoing dispute over its name of
Macedonia, the Balkan state has
gained Turkey as an ally.
Russia’s
Federal Security Service (FSB) will be empowered to investigate and issue
official warnings to individuals it believes could cause or create a crime, as
part of a bill being considered by the State Duma. Refusal to cooperate will be
subject to fines and administrative arrest.
In the United
Kingdom a coalition of the Conservative and Liberal Democratic parties
entered government, ending 13 years of government by the Labour Party.
***
Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey at the initiative of the latter will meet every
year on issues of regional cooperation. Meetings of the High-Level Quadruple
Council will be supplemented by quarterly meetings of ministers. The vision of a
new “Middle East Union” is downplayed by Ankara reports
Hürriyet Daily News. Nobody talks about it yet but it's not unlikely
that Iran and Iraq eventually will also join.
The Kabylia Autonomy Movement (MAK) announced on 2
June that it had established a government-in-exile of nine ministers in France.
The step was taken to call international attention to
Algeria's neglectful treatment of the region and its Berber
population.
***
*Paul Kench and Arthur
Webb in the New Scientist weekly of
London on 2 June.
5 Mauritius:
Election of 69-seat National Assembly. The Alliance of the Future (AdA)
comprising the Mauritian Labour Party (PTM), Mauritian Social Democratic Party
(PMSD), and the Militant Socialist Movement (MSM) obtains the majority with 49.7
percent and 45 seats.
6 United
Kingdom: General elections of 650-seat House of Commons. No party wins a
majority but the Conservative Party
obtains a plurality with 36 percent and 307 seats and forms a coalition with the
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with 23 percent and 57 seats.
10 Philippines: Election of
president. Benigno Noynoy
Aquino III of the Liberal Party of the Philippines (PLP) obtains 42
percent of votes cast, followed by Joseph
Estrada (PMP), 26.25 percent. Jejomar
Binday of the
Philippine Democratic Party-People's Power (PDP-Laban) obtains 41.7
percent of votes cast, followed by Mar
Roxas of the
Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP), 39.6 percent.
10 Philippines: Election of Congress.
One-half of the 24 seats of the Senate were contested of which the PLP obtained
3 making it one of three parties with 4 seats each. Of the 230 single-member
district seats the incumbent coalition Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats
(LAKAS-CMD) retained a plurality with 106 seats. An additional 57 seats will be
allocated depending on results by party.
16 Dominican Republic: Legislative
elections. The incumbent Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) retained its majority
in both houses with
105 of 183
seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 31 of 32 seats in the Senate.
23 Ethiopia: Election of 546-seat
House of People's Representatives. The ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary
Democratic Front (EPRDF) obtained a majority with 499 seats.
24 Trinidad
and Tobago: Election of 41-seat House of Representatives. The new 5-party
People’s Partnership coalition obtained the majority with 29 of 41 seats.
25 Suriname: Election of 51-seat
National Assembly. The newly formed Mega Combination (MC), including the
National Democratic Party (NDP), obtained the plurality with 40 percent of votes
cast and 23 seats.
28-29 Czech
Republic: Election of 200-seat Chamber of Deputies. No party obtained a
majority but the Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD) obtained 56 seats, followed by the incumbent
Civic Democratic Party (ODS) with 53 seats after losing 28 seats.
30 Colombia:
Election of president. Minister of Defense Juan Manuel
Santos
Calderón of
the
Presidential candidacies
Brazil—on 3 October 2010:
Michel Miguel Elias
Temer Lulia (born 23 September 1940)
received preliminary approval by the Party of the Brazilian Democratic
Movement (PMDB) on 18 May to run as vice presidential candidate with the
Workers’ Party (PT) presidential candidate Ms. Dilma Vana
Rousseff (born 14 December 1947). He
is President of the PMDB.
Egypt—in 2011:
Dr. Mohammad Mostafa Al Baradei
(born 17 June 1942), Secretary General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from 1997 until November 2009, has neither ruled in or out
the possibility of his candidacy for president but expects guarantees for fair
and honest elections. He does not wish to join a party and would run as
independent but could obtain the endorsement of the New Wafd Party. On 3 June,
BBC reported that the Muslim
Brotherhood which is banned would support Baradei’s candidacy.
On 22-23 May, both the prime minister and the
secretary general of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) insisted that
the NDP wants the President, former Air Marshal Mohammed Hosni Said
Mubarak (born 4 May 1928), to run
again.
Fiji—in 2014: The current military ruler, Commodore Frank Voreque
Bainimarama (born 27 April 1954),
said on 10 June that he hasn’t considered contesting the elections, reported the
Fiji Broadcasting Corporation.
Finland—in 2012: The Green League (VL) on 23 May started campaigning for Member of
Parliament Pekka Haavisto (born 23
March 1958) as its presidential candidate. He is a former Minister of
Environment and Development and is serving as European Union (EU) Special
Representative for Darfur.
Madagascar-on 26 November 2010: President Andry Nirina
Rajoelina (born 30 May 1974) of the Determined Malagasy Youth (TGV)
party declared on 12 May that he would not stand in elections.
Nigeria--in 2011: Former President Olusegun Obasanjo, at a function on 7 June, said
there was nothing wrong with the current President, Goodluck Ebele
Jonathan (born 20 November 1957) of
the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), to be a candidate. In a television chat on
20 June, the president said he was not in a position to tell about his next
election plan.
Tanzania—on 31 October 2010: National Assembly member John Magale
Shibuda (born 23 February 1950) of
the governing Revolutionary Party of Tanzania (CCM) announced on 15 June that he
would not be a candidate for president in this year’s election. He noted that
the current president has led in the right direction and should complete what he
started.
(Issue contains 34 pages)
May 2010, No. 479
Viewing the World
Current Concerns
Caribbean and Central
America: The new Hurricane season
Korean Peninsula war threats
Power-sharing in Nepal
Continuing unrest in
Thailand
Israeli blockade of Gaza
The delay in forming a
government in Iraq
Iran’s nuclear power stance
Eurozone and finances of
Greece, Portugal, and Spain
Its main charge: “powerful governments are blocking
advances in international justice by standing above the law on human rights,
shielding allies from criticism and acting only when politically convenient.
Repression and injustice are flourishing in the global justice gap,
condemning millions of people to abuse, oppression and poverty,” said Claudio
Cordone, interim AI Secretary General.
The International Criminal Court’s 2009 arrest
warrant for Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al Bashir, for crimes against
humanity and war crimes, was a landmark event demonstrating that even sitting
heads of state are not above the law. However, the African Union’s refusal to
cooperate, despite the nightmare of violence that has affected hundreds of
thousands of people in Darfur, was a stark example of governmental failure to
put justice before politics.
The UN Human Rights Council’s paralysis over Sri
Lanka, despite serious abuses including possible war crimes carried out by both
government forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, also stood as a
testament to the international community’s failure to act when needed.
Meanwhile, the recommendations of the Human Rights Council’s Goldstone report
calling for accountability for the conflict in Gaza still need to be heeded by
Israel and Hamas.
Worldwide, the justice gap sustained a pernicious
web of repression. Amnesty International’s research records torture or other
ill-treatment in at least 111 countries, unfair trials in at least 55 countries,
restrictions on free speech in at least 96 countries and prisoners of conscience
imprisoned in at least 48 countries.
Human rights organizations and human rights
defenders came under attack in many countries, with governments preventing their
work or failing to protect them.
In the Middle East and North Africa, there were
patterns of governmental intolerance of criticism in Saudi Arabia, Syria and
Tunisia, and mounting repression in Iran. In Asia, the Chinese government
increased pressure on challenges to its authority, detaining and harassing human
rights defenders, while thousands fled severe repression and economic hardship
in North Korea and Burma.
Space for independent voices and civil society
shrank in parts of Europe and Central Asia, and there were unfair restrictions
on freedom of expression in Russia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Belarus
and Uzbekistan. The Americas were plagued by hundreds of unlawful killings by
security forces, including in Brazil, Jamaica, Colombia and Mexico, while
impunity for US violations related to counter-terrorism persisted. Governments
in Africa such as Guinea and Madagascar met dissent with excessive use of force
and unlawful killings, while Ethiopia and Uganda among others repressed
criticism.
Callous disregard for civilians marked conflicts.
Armed groups and government forces breached international law in the Democratic
Republic of Congo, Sri Lanka and Yemen. In the conflict in Gaza and southern
Israel, Israeli forces and Palestinian armed groups unlawfully killed and
injured civilians. Thousands of civilians suffered abuses in escalating violence
by the Taleban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, or bore the brunt of the conflicts
in Iraq and Somalia. Women and girls suffered rape and other violence carried
out by government forces and armed groups in most conflicts.
Other trends included:
Globally, with millions of people pushed into
poverty by the food, energy and financial crises, events showed the urgent need
to tackle the abuses that affect poverty. Amnesty International also called on G20 states that have failed to fully sign up to the International Criminal Court (ICC)–USA, China, Russia, Turkey, India, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia–to do so. (Although 110 states ratified the Rome Statute to the ICC by the end of 2009, only 12 out of the G20 countries had done so. Among others, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Turkey and the USA have stood aside from, if not deliberately undermined, international justice efforts.)
Having excluded itself from the jurisdiction of the
ICC, the USA faces less external pressure to address its own abuses committed in
the context of its counter-terrorism strategy. When President Barack Obama took
office and ordered the closure of the Guantánamo Bay detention facility within a
year, as well as the end of the secret detention program and the use of
so-called “enhanced interrogation techniques”, the signs were promising.
However, by the end of 2009 the Guantánamo detentions were still ongoing and
little progress had been made in holding anyone accountable for the violations
there and in the other aspects of the US-led “war on terror”.
China too shields its actions from international
scrutiny. In July 2009, violent riots followed a police crackdown on an
initially peaceful protest by Uighurs in Urumqi, Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous
Region. The Chinese government restricted access to information, arrested
non-violent protesters, and set up quick, unfair trials, sentencing many to
death and executing nine within months of the violence. In December, a further
13 were sentenced to death, and 94 more arrested. The short and controlled
access journalists were allowed after the violence is no substitute for proper
international scrutiny – China failed to respond to a request from the UN
Rapporteur on torture to visit the area. Any claim by the government that it is
ensuring accountability is not credible when the supposed accountability is
cloaked in secrecy and a
rush to executions.
It was increasingly clear that Russia would use its
power to shield both its own soldiers and Georgia’s breakaway regions of South
Ossetia (and Abkhazia) from international scrutiny. Specifically, Russia opposed
the extension of the mandates of two crucial international monitoring missions
in Georgia belonging to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
and the UN. This left the European Union Monitoring Mission as the sole
international observer body operating in Georgia, with no access to areas
controlled by Russia or the de facto South Ossetian and Abkhazian authorities in
the post-conflict zone.
Indonesia, another financial heavyweight with
membership of the G-20, has for more than 10 years failed to ensure
accountability for the victims of human rights violations committed during
Timor-Leste’s 1999 UN-sponsored independence referendum and the previous 24
years of Indonesian occupation. Despite various national and internationally
sponsored justice initiatives over the last decade, most of those suspected of
having committed crimes against humanity in 1999 are still at large. Of those
who have been prosecuted in Indonesia, all have been acquitted.
The unwillingness of the powerful to apply the same
standards to themselves and their political allies plays into the hands of
others who can then justify their own double standards, sometimes placing a
misguided notion of “regional solidarity” above solidarity with the victims.
Nowhere can this be seen more clearly than in the initial response of African
states to the ICC’s arrest warrant for President Al Bashir. Despite the
seriousness of the crimes alleged, in July the Assembly of the African Union
(AU), chaired by Libya, reiterated a request to the UN Security Council to
suspend the proceedings against the Sudanese President, decided that AU member
states would not co-operate with the ICC in his arrest and surrender, and
requested the African Commission to convene a preparatory meeting to discuss
amendments to the Rome Statute to
Counter-terror and security:
The new US administration seemed to promise substantive change in some
of the policies that have damaged international human rights protections over
the previous seven years. An end to the CIA secret detention program, for
example, and the release of some information on the legal opinions that had been
issued in support of that program, were welcome. But not all promises translated
into reality. The deadline set by President Obama on his second day in office to
close the detention facility at Guantánamo within a year drifted as domestic
party politics trumped the human rights of the detainees. The positive move by
the new administration to turn to the ordinary federal courts to try some
Guantánamo detainees was tarnished by its decision to retain military
commissions for others. "Despite the progress made in an important number of
emblematic cases of past human rights violations, the legal, jurisdictional and
political obstacles that have helped entrench impunity in the region, remained
formidable in 2009."
Meanwhile, detentions at Bagram airbase in
Afghanistan continued as if under the old administration, and the USA failed to
meet its legal obligation to ensure accountability and remedy for human rights
violations committed in the counter-terrorism context since September 2001.
Despite serious failures in ensuring justice last
year, many events revealed progress. In Latin America, investigations into
crimes shielded by amnesty laws were reopened, with landmark judgments involving
former leaders including the convictions of former President Alberto Fujimori of
Peru for crimes against humanity and Argentina’s last military president,
Reynaldo Bignone for kidnapping and torture. All trials in the Special Court for
Sierra Leone were concluded apart from the on-going trial of former President of
Liberia Charles Taylor.
Global justice gap condemns millions to abuse:
No one should be above the law. But all too often, those who commit the worst
kinds of human rights abuses are not brought to justice. The world’s leaders
must do much more to protect people’s rights. The Amnesty International Report
2010 exposes some of the worst abuses committed around the world:
Note: All countries
refers to the 159 countries covered in the Amnesty International Report 2010,
which documents the state of human rights in those countries for the period
January to December 2009.
G-20 covers the 19 country
members but excludes the European Union.
*Amnesty International Report 2010: State of the World’s
Human Rights, London, May 2010.
***
The global economic recession that began in 2007
and continued into 2009 has had a profound impact on world energy demand in the
near term, notes EIA. Total world marketed energy consumption contracted by 1.2
percent in 2008 and by an estimated 2.2 percent in 2009, as manufacturing and
consumer demand for goods and services declined. Although the recession appears
to have ended, the pace of recovery has been uneven so far, with China and India
leading and Japan and the European Union member countries lagging. As the
economic situation improves, most nations return to the economic growth paths
that were anticipated before the recession began.
The demand for world energy continues to
go up at a slightly lower rate.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy
projects* that world energy consumption is increasing by 49 percent from 2007 to
2035 (44 percent from 2006 to 2030). The largest projected increase in energy
demand is again for the region outside the Organization of Economic Cooperation
and Development (OECD) or the industrial countries, at 84 percent (73 percent
from 2006 to 2030), compared to 14 percent (15 percent) in OECD countries.
Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 495 quadrillion British
thermal units (Btu) in 2007 (472 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in
2006) to 590 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and to 739 quadrillion Btu in 2035 (678
quadrillion Btu in last year’s forecast).
Liquids, especially petroleum, are
expected to remain the world’s dominant energy source and fossil fuels which
include coal and natural gas, will continue supplying much of the energy used
worldwide. World use of liquids and other petroleum grows from 86.1 million
barrels per day in 2007 (85 million barrels per day in 2006) to 921 million
barrels per day in 2020 and 110.6 million barrels per day in 2035 (107 million
barrels per day in 2030).
To meet the increase in world demand, liquids
production (including both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies)
increases by a total of 25.8 million barrels per day from 2007 to 2035.
It is assumed that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
countries will invest in incremental production
capacity in order to maintain a share of approximately 40 percent of total world
liquids production through 2035, consistent with their share over the past 15
years. Increasing volumes of conventional liquids (crude oil and lease
condensate, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain) from OPEC producers
contribute 11.5 million barrels per day to the total increase in world liquids
production, and conventional supplies from non-OPEC countries add another 4.8
million barrels per day.
The demand for natural gas will
increase with rebounding world oil prices.
Natural gas consumption worldwide increases by 44 percent, from 108 trillion
cubic feet in 2007 to 156 trillion cubic feet in 2035. In 2009, world natural
gas consumption declined by an estimated 1.1 percent, and natural gas use in the
industrial sector fell even more sharply, by 6.0 percent, as demand for
manufactured goods declined during the recession. The industrial sector
currently consumes more natural gas than any other end-use sector, and in the
projection it continues as the largest user through 2035, when 39 percent of the
world’s natural gas supply is consumed for industrial purposes. Electricity
generation is another important use for natural gas throughout the projection,
and its share of the world’s total natural gas consumption increases from 33
percent in 2007 to 36 percent in 2035.
To meet the projected growth in demand for natural
gas, producers will need to increase annual production in 2035 to a level that
is 46 percent higher than the 2007 total. The largest projected increase in
natural gas production is for the non-OECD region, with the major increments
coming from the Middle East (an increase of 16 trillion cubic feet from 2007 to
2035), Africa (7 trillion cubic feet), and Russia and the other countries of
non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (6 trillion cubic feet).
In the absence of effective international and national steps to limit or reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, world coal
consumption continues to growing and is expected to increase its share of world
energy consumption. Coal use worldwide will increase from 132 quadrillion Btu in
2007 (127 quadrillion Btu in 2006) to 206 quadrillion BTU in 2035 (190
quadrillion Btu in last year’s estimate).
World net
electricity generation increases by 87 percent and
use is forecast to grow from
18.8 trillion kilowatthours in 2007 (18.0 trillion kilowatthours in 2006) to
35.2 kilowatthours in 2035 (31.8 trillion kilowatthours in 2030). The strongest
growth in net electricity consumption is projected for the non-OECD region,
averaging 3.3 percent a year, and 1.1 percent a year in OECD nations over the
projection period.
Of alternative sources, renewable energy
is the fastest-growing source of world electricity generation, spurred on by the
expected high prices for fossil fuels and by government incentives for the
development of alternative energy sources. From 2007 to 2035, world renewable
energy use for electricity generation grows by an average of 3.0 percent per
year, and the renewable share of world electricity generation increases from 18
percent in 2007 to 23 percent in 2035.
Former uncertainty associated with nuclear
electricity generation is diminishing and it is attracting new interest as
countries seek to increase the diversity of their energy supplies. It is
projected to increase from 2.6 trillion kilowatthours in 2007 to 4.5 trillion
kilowatthours in 2035. The largest increase in installed nuclear
generating capacity is projected for non-OECD Asia where nuclear power
generation is projected to grow at an average rate of 7.7 percent per year from
2007 to 2035. Nuclear generation is projected to increase by 8.4 percent per
year (8.9 percent in last year’s estimate) in China and by 9.5 percent per year
(9.9 percent) in India.
Carbon dioxide emissions are rising from 29.7
billion metric tons in 2007 (29.0 billion metric tons in 2005) to 42.4 billion
metric tons in 2035 (40.4 billion metric tons in 2030).
In 2007, non-OECD emissions exceeded OECD emissions by 17 percent (14 percent in
2006); in 2035, they are projected to be double the OECD emissions.
Last year, EIA noted that carbon dioxide is the most abundant greenhouse gas in
the atmosphere caused by humans. In recent years, atmospheric concentrations of
carbon dioxide have been rising at a rate of about 0.5 percent a year, and
because anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide result primarily from the
combustion of fossil fuels for energy, world energy use has emerged at the
center of the climate change debate.
In the current estimate, the Administrations explains that a
significant degree of uncertainty surrounds any long-term projection of
energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. Major sources of uncertainty include
estimates of energy consumption in total and by fuel source.
*International Energy Outlook 2009, Energy Information Administration.
Washington DC: US Department of Energy, May 2010.
***
UN elects new members for human rights
body:
The Human Rights Council (UNHRC) which replaced the former Human Rights
Commission is still criticized for including members with human rights record
ranking from not very clean to dismal. Amnesty International has singled out the
Council for its paralysis in handling the situation in Sri Lanka.
On 13 May, the General Assembly elected 12 new and reelected 2 members
of the 47-seat Human Rights Council. African and Asian states each nominated
four members and Latin America and Caribbean,
Eastern Europe, and Western Europe two countries each.
Beginning in June, the following members will serve for three years:
*Angola, Ecuador, Guatemala, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Mauritania,
Moldova, Poland, *Qatar, Spain, Switzerland, Thailand, and Uganda. (*Reelected,
limited to two consecutive terms.) They replace the following states elected in
2007: Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Italy,
Madagascar, Netherlands, Nicaragua, Philippines, Slovenia, and South Africa.
Libya, not known for its clean human rights record received the lowest
number of votes held in secret but far more than required. Switzerland which was
universally condemned for its anti-minaret referendum ranked close after
Thailand which obtained most of the votes despite its controversial handling of
current political unrest. Iran withdrew its candidacy early on.
The Customs
Union of the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC)
will not be fully functional on 1 July as scheduled, the Russian prime minister
announced on 22 May. The holdup is caused by the need to resolve disputes over
the final version of the customs code. Initial members are Belarus, Kazakhstan,
and the Russian Federation.
Using
blasphemy laws to silence critics. Representatives of Islamic states following more
fundamental observations for some time have worked openly and behind the scenes
of international and regional organizations for prohibiting criticism of their
religion and controversial practices. After a temporary ban on the international
social networking Facebook site by the Pakistani telecommunications authority
because of a cartoon competition depicting the Muslim prophet,
Jama'at-ud-Da'wah (JuD/JUD) of Pakistan is demanding from the United Nations to
outlaw blasphemy of prophets and sentence violators to death. JuD ostensibly is
an Islamic charity organization but India as well as the US have proscribed it
as a front for the militant Army of the Righteous or Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LT).
In a related matter, the
European Parliament (EP) on 20 May approved a resolution expressing its deep
concern over the misuse of blasphemy laws in Pakistan which has led to increased
violence against members of religious minorities.
***
War has not broken out after Ethiopia,
Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda signed a new Nile Basin agreement on 14 May in
Entebbe, Uganda.
Kenya was prevented from attending
and signing but issued a statement of support and on 19 May announced it had
signed the pact. Egypt which had threatened war over any diminution of its “historic
right” to waters of the river, declared the agreement was not binding. Rather
than fighting the seven states up river, it appears Cairo will try to blunt the
pact diplomatically, beginning with Kenya.
No new date was set after the presidential election in the
Central African Republic (CAR), scheduled for 16 May, was postponed.
The National Assembly on 10 May approved a constitutional amendment allowing the
president to serve until new elections are held. It looks like the President,
General François Bozizé (born 14
October 1946), who came to power through a coup d'état in 2003 and then was
elected in 2005, is heading for an indefinite term.
After heavily contested elections and amidst
numerous charges of election fraud and irregularities, the incumbent president
was reelected. In Southern Sudan, the incumbent also was reelected.
***
Now that Burma’s military rulers have
tailor-made a new constitution and succeeded in scuttling the only legitimate
party, the National League for Democracy, they are ready to play “democracy.”
Ministers are retiring from the military so they can run for elective office as
civilians. The prime minister is forming a party, the Union Solidarity and
Development Party (USDP), and the election commission is handpicked by the
rulers. To the generals this means their country will be governed like those in
the free world and they are following the ”rules.” There will be other parties
but 25 percent of legislative seats will be reserved for the military and
Buddhist monks are excluded from running for office.
In Kyrgyzstan, anti-government
protesters ousted the government and forced the president to flee and resign.
The parliamentary leader of the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (PSDK)
stepped in and assumed powers of interim president. While the new government is
in place, supporters of the former president continue with the
counter-revolution.
The 20th prime minister of Sri
Lanka took office after his
United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) gained the majority in parliamentary
elections.
***
The Austrian federal president was reelected by the Federal Assembly.
Belgium’s prime minister stepped down.
Efforts by the leaders of the Serbian Republic, one of the two components of
Bosnia and Herzegovina, to undermine
institutions of the state, are only one reason for the deterioration of internal
politics. The High Representative, Dr. Valentin
Inzko (born 22 May 1949), says the country remains afflicted by a
lack of consensus on what kind of state it wants to be. He is concerned that in
the run-up to the scheduled general elections on 3 October divisive rhetoric
disputing the sovereignty and constitutional order could lead to provocative
actions.
A hard-line nationalist president assumed
office in the disputed state of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus
(TRNC) giving rise to concerns about reunification of the island. The foreign
minister is acting prime minister.
The president of the Czech Republic
is no great friend of the European Union (EU), the announcement
on 12 May that the country is not ready to adopt the Euro currency, all
this is upsetting both government and citizens. The EU found that measures to
cut the state budget deficit lacked detail.
Estonia on the other hand was given
the go-ahead to introduce the currency in 2011.
The French National Assembly on 11
May by a vote of 434 against zero approved a nonbinding resolution banning the
wearing of the full face Islamic veil or “burqa” as an affront to national
values of dignity and equality (30 communist deputies walked out in protest).
Parliament will debate the law in July.
A few months ago a black-yellow coalition government of
Germany appeared being under control and the Federal Chancellor
could reap international praise and domestic support. Not today. In May, in
state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia the majority Christian Democratic
Union (CDU) lost heavily (from almost 45 percent of its share of votes down to
34.4 percent), a setback that was laid at the feet of the Chancellor. Then the
premier of Hesse stepped down and on the last day of the month the Federal
President resigned after some verbal blundering. While the Chancellor may have
lacked in party leadership, another reason for the sorry state of affairs is the
coalition partner, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and especially its leader.
Some German newspapers criticize not only his lack of a plan for his party but
his uncanny ability to provoke controversy, placing the coalition in
embarrassing position, and not really helping to accomplish the coalition’s
tasks. The party has to defend the antics of its leader and is wasting goodwill.
After the right-wing and conservative win in
Hungary, the leader of the Federation of Young Democrats-Hungarian Civic
Union (FiDeSz-MPSz) is asked to form the new government.
Upon news that the president of Poland,
his wife—and numerous high officials—were killed in an aircraft crash in Russia,
the presiding officer of the national legislature became acting president.
Like clockwork twice a year, San Marino
installed two new heads of government, known as Captains General, for their
six-month term.
***
Leaders of Egypt's National
Democratic Party (NDP) say they want President Hosni
Mubarak (born 4 May 1928) to run for
office for a sixth 6-year term in next year's election. The prime minister
expressed his expectation on 22 May and a few days later the party's
secretary-general made similar comments.
***
The outlook for return of Fiji to
democratic governance remains dim. A ministerial contact group of the Pacific
Islands Forum (PIF) reported on 31 May that it found no signs of progress.
Elections in April
5
Sudan: Election of 450-seat National
Assembly. The National Congress Party (NCP) obtained the majority with 73
percent or 306 seats.
5
Sudan: Presidential election. The
incumbent of the National Congress (NC) is reelected in a vote that according to
international observers failed to meet international standards.
5
Southern Sudan: Presidential
election. The incumbent of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) is
reelected.
8
Sri Lanka: Election of 196 of 225
seats of Parliament. The United People's
Freedom Alliance (UPFA) gained the
majority.
11/25
Hungary: Election of 386-seat
National Assembly. The center-right
Federation of
Young Democrats-Hungarian Civic Union (FiDeSz-MPSz) won a landslide victory with
the support of right-wing
nationalist Jobbik-The Movement for a Better Hungary.
18
Cyprus--Turkish
Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC): Presidential election. The candidate
of the nationalist National Unity Party (UBP) was elected and defeated the
incumbent.
24 Nauru: Election of
18-seat Parliament in a non-partisan manner.
25 Austria: Election of the
President by the Federal Assembly. The incumbent of the Socialdemocratic Party
of Austria (SPŐ)
was reelected.
Presidential candidacies
Belarus—in February 2011:
The following opposition candidates have decided to enter the election:
Alyaksandr Uładzimieravič
Milinkevich (born 25 July 1947), physicist and candidate of the
Movement for Freedom (4 May 2010); Ales Anatoljevich
Mikhalevich (born 15 May 1975), lawyer and tourism executive, former
Deputy Chairman of the Belarusian Popular Front “Revival” (NFB-A) (28 January
2010); Vital Rymasheuski (born 1974)
, construction engineer and co-chairman of the Belarusian Christian Democracy
Party (BKDP); and Andrei Sannikau
(born 1954), ambassador and former deputy foreign minister and leader of
European Belarus (15 March 2010).
Benin—in March 2011:
Adrien Houngbédji (born 5 March 1942)
, lawyer and former prime minister, will be a candidate for the fourth time for
the Cauri Force for an Emerging Benin (FCBE) (10 April 2010).
Germany—on 30 June 2010:
The Federal Assembly will elect a successor to the federal president who
resigned on 31 May. At month’s end, the coalition parties which command a
majority have not yet agreed on a candidate nor have the
opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) and Greens.
Liberia—in 2011:
President Ms. Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf (born 29 October 1938) of the Unity Party
(UP) announced she will seek a second term despite an earlier campaign promise
to limit herself to one term (25 January 2010).
Mali—in 2012:
The President, (General) Amadou Toumani
Touré (born 4 November 1948), announced he would step down at the end of his
term on 8 June 2012 (19 April 2010).
Russia—in 2012:
President Dmitriy Anatol’yevich Medvedev
(born 14 September 1965) and Prime Minister Vladimir Vladimirovich
Putin (born 7 October 1952), both
belonging to the “presidential party” United Russia (YeR), may seek the
presidential candidacy. Medvedev said so in an interview on 24 April and earlier
Putin did not rule out the possibility. He has also said earlier that they would
not run against each other.
Uganda—in 2011: Lt. General Yoweri Kaguta
Museveni (probably born in August 1944), Chairman of the governing
National Resistance Movement (NRM) is likely to stand for reelection. The Daily
Monitor of Kampala reports of a poll
taken between 19 April and 6 May in which Ugandans although generally satisfied
with the president revealed by almost seven out of every 10 respondents (68
percent) said he should quit. (In 1985, senior
officers, incl. seized the government and in January 1986 the leader was ousted
and replaced by the current president who ruled unelected until 1996 when he was
popularly elected the first time for4 a five-year term. He was subsequently
reelected in 2001 and 2006.) Norbert Mao
(born 12 March 1967), lawyer and President of the opposition Democratic Party
(DP) appears to be the joint candidate of the Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC)
which includes the Conservative Party (CP), Forum for Democratic Choice (FDC),
Justice Forum (JEEMA), and the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC).
Zimbabwe—in 2011:
When the Global Political Agreement of September 2009 on power sharing ends in
2011 and depending on the revised constitution, new elections could be held.
President Robert Gabriel Mugabe (born
21 February 1924) of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front
(ZANU-PF) said he would seek reelection if nominated by his party (4 March
2010). Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai
(born 10 March 1952) of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)
announced he will run again but did not specify the presidential office (7 March
2010). WORLD TROUBLESPOTS
Documentation United Kingdom The Queen's Speech to Parliament 25 May 2010 [see printed
issue]
(Issue contains 36 pages)
April 2010, No. 478
Viewing the World
Current Concerns
Worldwide effects of Iceland’s volcanic eruption
Iran’s nuclear power stance
Eurozone and finances of Greece, Portugal, and Spain
The delay in forming a government in Iraq
Kyrgyzstan government change
A year ago, the United Nations
and participants of a world water forum called attention to the link of the
basic need for water to the world’s vital challenges of global vulnerability to
climate change and the energy drawdown . This month, the UN Secretary General
felt it necessary to point to
“a key role” for the United Nations for
resolving tensions in Central Asia
over the use of water, energy and
other natural resources where exploitation by one country can affect the
development of another. He suggested to the leaders of the five states to use a
UN preventive diplomacy center in the region—the UN Regional Centre for
Preventive Diplomacy (UNRCCA)--to reduce tensions and promote dialogue.
The prime minister was replaced in
Chad.
After completing a draft constitution in
Kenya, a public referendum will
probably be held this summer. The document is currently undergoing examination
by the attorney general. A major change will be diminished powers of the
president, more authority for local governments, and better guarantees of
individual civil and political rights.
International expectations of elections in
Sudan on 11 April were disappointed
and observers—except those from China--said the voting failed international
standards. Voter intimidation led the list but there were also shortages of
ballots and voting materials. The governing National Congress Party (NCP) in
Khartoum is celebrating, others fear that the South will declare its
independence next year after the referendum.
***
The conservative, newly elected president of
Chile assumed office.
One bone of contention between the president of
Afghanistan, the United Nations, and
the US has been removed. The chairman and one member of the Independent
Electoral Commission (IEC) have resigned and been replaced. Earlier the House of
the People had reversed the president’s decision to take control of the
commission.
The governing coalition in
Japan is in disarray and the former ruling Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP) is losing senior members one of whom is forming a new party. There is even
speculation that the prime minister and the secretary-general of the Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ) may both resign in May, reported the
Mainichi Daily News on 28 April.
The political opposition in
Kyrgyzstan formed a new government on 7 April. Protests and turmoil
in which nearly 50 people were killed and some 400 injured preceded the change
of government and forced the president to leave the country and step down.
Pakistan’s
president signed the 18th amendment on 19 April. It cuts back on
presidential powers, shifting them to the legislature. One of the controversial
components is the renaming of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) to Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa Province.
Following parliamentary elections in
Sri Lanka on 8 April which the
governing United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) won, a new prime minister was
sworn in on 21 April.
Thailand’s
prime minister is resisting anti-government demonstrations by the Red Shirts and
rejects leaving office and calling new elections.
***
Legislative work in
Albania remains stymied. Charges and counter charges between the
governing Democratic Party of Albania (PDS) and the opposition Socialist Party
of Albania (PSS) over alleged election fraud are stalling passage of bills,
including those needed for the country to join the European Union (EU).
Armenia
has halted legislative action on reconciliation with
Turkey.
The election of a nationalist, hard-line president
of the Turkish Republic of Northern
Cyprus (TRNC) is seen as a setback to plans to reunite the island.
The European
Union (EU) is close to completing preparations for forming its diplomatic
service. The European External Action Service would be headed by a single
secretary general, a plan that is vigorously opposed by the European Parliament
(EP) which favors a role for itself and the pertinent commissioners.
Although the State Council of
France declared in March that a law banning full-face Islamic veils
would be unconstitutional, the president told the cabinet on 21 April to prepare
a draft bill outlawing the wearing of a burqa that covers the whole body and face. Debate on the bill in the
National Assembly is scheduled to begin in July.
The finance and interior ministers of
Germany have created a commission to
study how federal police, the federal investigation agency (BKA) and the customs
service can better cooperate and make full use of resources. The study is
expected to be ready by fall.
The overwhelming election victory of the center right
Hungarian Civic Union (FIDESZ) which obtained two thirds of votes
cast is welcomed by business and those who expect new jobs. Less positive is the
alliance with the extremist right wing party known as The Better (Jobbik) which
is openly anti-Semitic and
anti-Roma.
The opposition
Lithuanian Social Democratic Party
(LSDP) is moving for constitutional reform with the aim of authorizing the
president to dissolve parliament and call new elections as long as he has the
support of the voters.
When
Romania joined the European Union
(EU) in 2007 corruption remained a problem. To tackle it, the National Integrity
Agency (ANI) was set up but on 15 April the Constitutional Court declared most
of the tools of ANI unconstitutional.
The president of the European Commission EC) said he was worried about
the action.
In a report to
the Russian State Duma on 20 April,
the prime minister said that the country was better prepared for the 2009
economic crisis than for previous setbacks. The situation is far from being
trouble-free but the recession has ended for the Russian economy. He allowed
that many anti-crisis measures could have been more efficient.
This is
puzzling. Amidst reports from the North
Caucasus, the Russian interior minister on 24 April praised the peaceful
situation in the region but then noted that between April 2009 and March 2010
there were 253 law enforcement casualties compared to 190 the year before.
As expected after his coalition lost the
presidential election, the Ukrainian
prime minister lost a vote of confidence and was replaced by an ally of the new
president who also shares his interest in staying close to Russia, not joining
the North Atlantic Alliance, and going slow on getting closer to the European
Union (EU).
***
New report of civil and human rights violations:
There is some uncertainty whether a former president of
Iran and distinguished authority on Islam was banned from traveling
abroad or advised by the government not to attend a nuclear conference in Japan.
In any case,
Hojjat ol-Eslam
Seyed
Mohamed Khatami (born 14 October
1943) was unable to leave Tehran on 15 April and the Canadian and Swedish prime
ministers strongly protested the restriction on Khatami’s freedom.
Legislative elections in
Iraq have not yet resulted in the formation of a government. Final
returns are being amended after the candidatures of 52 people were invalidated.
The situation is further complicated by attacks on Shiites, a needed coalition
partner.
The National Coalition to Reform the Legal Framework
Governing the Electoral Process is being formed in
Jordan, reports the
Arab Reform Bulletin. The group
advocates reforms of the electoral law and is joined by political parties and
civil societies.
Just as
predicted, another obstacle to arriving at a stable relationship between
Israel and
Palestine turned up. The Israeli prime minister said on 24 April
that the government is serious about restarting talks but then he referred to a
Palestinian state within temporary borders. To nobody's surprise such a
restriction was rejected by the Palestinian president on the same day.
Turkey's
prime minister has joined the Syrian president in describing Israel as the main
threat to peace in the Middle East. While in Paris, the Turkish visitor on 7
April accused Israel of using disproportionate force in Palestine.
***
The continued refusal of the military ruler of
Fiji to return to democratic rule has
already placed the island nation on the list of unfree nations. This position is
reinforced by three actions taken in April: introduction of a media decree which
formalizes censorship, granting of immunity to those involved in the coups
d’état of 2000 and 2006, including the current military ruler, and cutting off
pensions to 35 members of the opposition United Fiji Party (SDL). Samoa’s prime
minister doubts that the pledged elections will be held in 2014.
Radio New Zealand reported on 29 April
that he said that it’s ridiculous that the democratic Secretariat of the Pacific
Island Forum (PIF) remains in Suva under a military dictatorship.
The minister of Maori affairs of
New Zealand told the UN on 21 April
that the government endorses the 2007
United Nations
Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.
One of the contenders for the office of prime
minister of the
Solomon Islands is Deputy Prime Minister Fred Iro
Fono (born 10 October 1962). He
belongs to the People's Alliance Party (PAP).
Elections in February
7 Costa Rica: Election
of 57-seat Legislative Assembly.
The governing National
Liberation Party retains its plurality.
7 Costa Rica:
Presidential election. The
First Vice President of the
governing National Liberation Party (PLN) was elected.
7 Ukraine:
2nd round of presidential election. The challenger, a former prime minister, was
elected.
28 Tajikistan:
Election of 63-seat House of Representatives.
The ruling People’s Democratic Party of
Tajikistan (HKDT) maintains its majority.
Elections in March
4 Togo:
Presidential election. The incumbent
of the ruling
Rally of the Togolese People (RPT) is reelected.
7 Iraq:
Election of 325-seat National Assembly. Neither of the two frontrunners, Iraqi
National Movement (al-Iraqiya) and State of Law Coalition obtained a majority
and were two seats apart until a number of votes were challenged and voided.
14 Colombia:
Election of 102-seat Senate. The two-party pro-presidential Party of the U (U)
and the Colombian Conservative Party (PCC) gain the absolute majority.
14 Colombia:
Election of 164-seat Chamber of Representatives. The two-party pro-presidential
Party of the U (U) and the Colombian Conservative Party (PCC) gain majority.
Presidential candidacies
Brazil—on 3 October 2010:
José Serra
(born 19 March 1942), former Governor of São Paulo, Brazilian Social Democratic
Party (PSDB)(11 April); Ms. Dilma Vana
Rousseff (born 14 December 1947), former Chief of the Civilian Household of
the Presidency (i.e., chief of staff), Workers’ Party (PT) (Feb. 2010);
Plínio Soares de de Arruda Sampaio (born 26 July 1930), lawyer,
Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL); and
Ms. Marina Silva (born 8 February 1958), Senator from Acre and former Minister
of the Environment, Green Party (PV).
Colombia--on 30 May 2010: Juan Manuel Santos
Calderón (born
10 August 1951),
Minister of Defense, Social Party of National Unity (U); Senator Gustavo
Petro Urrego (born 19 April 1960),
Alternative Democratic Pole (PDA); Ms. Noemí
Sanín Posada, (born 6 June 1949), former Minister of Foreign
Relations, Conservative Party (PC) (19 March);
Aurelijus
Rutenis Antanas Mockus Šivickas (born 25 March 1952), Mayor of Bogotá, Colombian Green Party (PVC) (14
March). Others:
Jaime
Araújo, Jairo
Calderón, Róbinson Devia,
Germán Vargas Lleras (Radical Change
(CR)), and
Rafael Pardo (Colombian
Liberal Party (PLC)).
Djibouti—in 2011:
Ismail Omar
Guelleh (born 27 November 1947), President since 1999, Popular Rally
for Progress. The day before the National Assembly approved a third presidential
term on 4 April, he allowed that he would stand for reelection.
Guinea—on 27 June 2010:
Brig Gen Sékouba Konaté (born 1964), military ruler, announced on 14 March that he
would not be candidate since prominent members of the transitional government
are excluded.
Poland—on 20 June 2010: Jaroslaw Kaczynski (born 18
June 1949), twin brother of former president, Law and Justice Party (PiS) (26
April); Bronislaw Komorowski (born 4
June 1952), acting President, Civic Platform (27 March); Waldemar
Pawlak (born 5 September 1959),
Deputy Prime Minister, Polish Peasants’ Party (PSL); and Grzegorz
Napieralski (born 18 March 1974), leader of the Democratic Left
Alliance (SLD) (22 April).
Nigeria (DR): Cabinet Directory [see printed issue]
Reference Aid: World-Ruling Parties and Coalition Governments [see printed
issue]
Info-Literature [see printed issue]
(Issue contains 34 pages)
March 2010,
No. 477
Viewing the World
Current Concerns
Creeping censorship and intrusions of free internet
Iran’s nuclear power stance
US relations with China and Israel
Legislative elections were held in several
countries during the last months and four warrant special mention: one national
and three regional polls. On 7 March, voters in
Iraq elected the first 325-seat Council of Representatives.
Considerable violence preceded and accompanied the campaign but polling
generally was orderly. None of the four major party blocs gained the majority of
163 which explains why leaders of the two major blocs continue discussions and
political arrangements. Final results are also upset by challenges to some
deputies over their past affiliation with the
former Arab
Socialist Renaissance or Baath Party. Numbers are important here because
currently there is only a two-seat difference. Results:
State of Law Coalition, centered around the Islamic Da’awa Party of Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki (born 1950), 89 seats.
Iraqi National Coalition, led by Sheikh
Fawaz
Al-Jerba, an influential tribal chief from Mosul,
mainly a Shi’ite alliance, is composed
of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (SIIC) and Badr Organization, Sadrist
Movement, National Reform Trend, Iraqi National Congress, Tribes of Iraq
Coalition, and others, 70 seats.
No action is too small to delay or prevent a peaceful solution of the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The
announced construction of housing units in predominantly Palestinian East
Jerusalem just as the US vice president was engaged in another attempt to
advance peace talks is only the latest example, this time created by the extreme
right-wing government of Israel and its prime minister. To nobody’s surprise,
the Palestinians responded by lobbing a missile into Israel from Gaza, obviously
a weak move that only serves to justify further Israeli action.
Congo (DR): Cabinet Directory [see printed issue]
Documentation: World-Threats in 2010 [see printed issue]
(Issue contains 32 pages)
February 2010, No. 476
Viewing the World
Current Concerns
Haiti relief and reconstruction
Climate change: thinking about financing and gathering pledges
Creeping censorship and intrusions of free internet
Iran’s nuclear power stance
The earthquake that struck
Haiti on 12 January and the ensuing
loss of life and damage rallied the world’s governments and people to rush help
to survivors and prepare for reconstruction. More than one million people are
homeless, an estimated 210,000 died, most of the government buildings in the
capital were destroyed or severely damaged and elections scheduled for February
had to be postponed.
*** In
Guinea, a civilian prime minister
assumed office in a first step toward returning to democratic rule before new
elections are held.
A new prime minister is appointed in
Mozambique.
Nigeria’s
recuperating president has not stepped down but his vice president is finally
allowed to exercise presidential powers.
Sudan
is gearing up for elections in April which are overshadowed by a referendum on
independence in the South in 2011. The president said on 19 January that his
National Congress Party (NCP) does not want the south to secede but would
respect the voters' decision. Lam Akol,
a presidential candidate who until last year belonged to the pro-independence
Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) is now saying secession would be
suicidal and turn the south into another Somalia.
**
Canada
is stepping up measures to protect its sovereignty in the Arctic and announced
the installation of experimental listening devices this summer to monitor
traffic. Voters in two overseas
departments of France in the Americas, Guiana and Martinique, spoke out for retaining the current status
and against greater autonomy. The
newly elected president of Honduras
took office but a number of states in the hemisphere, incl. Brazil and
Venezuela, refuse recognition. In a little noticed
meeting between officials of Nicaragua
and Russia in Moscow on 18 January,
Nicaragua asked for help with building a ship canal linking the Atlantic and
Pacific Oceans. Russia said further study would be needed of the $18-billion
project.
US
government closed from Monday through Thursday, 8-11 February, when new heavy
snowfalls made roads impassable and paralyzed air and ground transport. A number of Democratic
members of the US Congress and a governor have announced that they will not
stand for reelection but the significant upset of political power occurred on 19
January when a Republican senator was elected in Massachusetts to fill the seat
of former Democratic Senator Edward Kennedy. Significant because Democrats lost the so-called “super
majority” of 60 votes by one vote in the Senate. More critical for future
US political development was a split
decision in the Supreme Court two days later that found that corporations have a
constitutional right to free speech which includes their right to spend money
freely in elections without limits. The president deplored the ruling in his
State of the Union address on 27 January but short of a near-impossible
constitutional change individual voters will be at a distinct disadvantage in
the future if vast contributions to candidates—and legislators—can influence
elections and voting. The Bolivarian government
of Venezuela continues to strengthen
its hold on banks, enterprises, media, and regional politicians. A number of
former governors are barred from office because of past irregularities and
alleged corruption and in late January an opposition TV station and five cable
networks were switched off.
*** An initiative by
Afghanistan’s government to encourage
some members of the Taliban militia to come over to the government’s side is
rejected by militia commanders who insist that foreign troops leave. The United
Nations are supporting the government and lifted sanctions against five top
Taliban officials. A new cabinet is slowly
talking shape in Afghanistan after
the House of People repeatedly rejected ministerial choices. The
Cambodian regime is not letting up in
its persecution of the main opposition leader Sam
Rainsy who is now a wanted man (currently staying in France).
China
is continuing to propagandize its concern for the welfare of Tibetans and
emphasizing how much living conditions are improving under communist rule. A new
governor, an ethnic Tibetan who served in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for
17 years, is now in place after last year’s deadly riots. Together with the
regional secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, an ethnic Han Chinese, two
military men are now in charge in Tibet. New report of civil and
human rights violations: The
International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) reported on 31 January on secret
bans of media reporting that China’s
government has introduced since the Beijing Olympics in 2008 to restrict
writing on social unrest and scandals. In late January,
paramilitary troops of India’s
central government and police of five states launched a large offensive against
Maoist insurgents in the states of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Orissa,
and West Bengal. In February, the government offered to talk to the Naxalites if
they halt violence.
Japan’s
prime minister gave his first policy speech to the Diet in which he placed his
aim to protect people first, followed by regional sovereignty, and principled
politics. To many voters the latter goal sounded hollow in view of the
continuing scandal involving leading members of the governing Democratic Party
of Japan (DPJ). A noteworthy admission
came from North Korea on 9 January
when its “Dear Leader” said the country has failed to meet the goal of improving
people’s livelihoods.
Nepal
is expected to complete the peace process by 15 May when the country’s new
constitution will be promulgated and the UN hopes to complete its mission. But
the assessment by the UN of 13 January sounds not very optimistic. For the past
three months the process has remained stalled and tension remains between
government, army, and the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M). The prime minister of
Pakistan said on 22 January that the
government would respect the Supreme Court’s orders on the National
Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) but that the president was immune from
prosecution under a parliamentary prerogative. In his New Year‘s address,
Taiwan’s president renewed his pledge
not to seek formal independence from China nor to pursue unification.
*** The
European Union (EU) just began
functioning under its first president but is also holding on to the practice of
a rotating six-month presidency by a member state which is cause for concern
especially when the two office holders have differing agendas or their
personalities are ill matched. Differences between the two leaders are
momentarily overshadowed by the Greek fiscal dilemma. Except for one candidate,
the 27-member European Commission
(EC), the Union’s executive arm has passed parliamentary muster and is in place. The admission of
Turkey, now supported by Germany’s
new vice chancellor, remains doubtful.
The Italian prime minister’s
latest ill-advised suggestion to bring Israel into the EU, appears to receive
the silent treatment in order to avoid accusations of anti-Semitism. Clearly,
problems of such an extension beyond geographical Europe would pale by
comparison with those of Turkey because the Union would be dragged deeply into
the Palestinian conflict.
The issue of Muslim women covering or veiling their faces and bodies in public
has become a legislative matter in France
and there is some support for discouraging the custom in
Denmark and Italy. Former Prime Minister of
France, Dominique
de Villepin was cleared by a court on
28 January of slandering the sitting head of state. But the so-called
Clearstream affair which started in
2004 is not over: The prosecution announced it will appeal the verdict, a step
that the defendant attributes to the president’s bent on revenge.
Germany’s
three-month old coalition government is beset by internal squabbling, delaying
its tackling of economic recovery and social reform. Not only is the Bavarian
sister party criticizing the Christian Democratic Federal Chancellor for
perceived lack of leadership but the
Free Democratic Vice Chancellor is undercutting the government’s agenda with
wildly provocative statements. Serving for the first time in a responsible
federal position as leader of a minority party he feels he should be heard and
is talking up lowering taxes, boosting the economy, and giving less money to
those without jobs. Oskar
Lafontaine, co-leader of The Left and
a former leader of the German Social Democrats, announced his retreat from
federal politics and party on 22 January. The weeks before his announcement were
filled with reports about differences with party officials, especially tensions
with the party manager, but Lafontaine stresses that his recuperation from
surgery of cancer of the prostate was a warning and he is stepping down strictly
for reasons of health.
Russia’s
president decreed creation of a new federal district for the Northern Caucasus
encompassing most of the following unstable areas: Chechnya, Dagestan,
Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachayevo-Cherkessia, North Ossetia, and the
Stavropol’ Oblast’. A high-power presidential representative was appointed who
also will serve as deputy prime minister. In
Switzerland federal president and
vice president rotated office to start a new one-year term. The President of
Ukraine, Viktor
Yushchenko, one-time hero of the Orange Revolution, is leaving the
office he held for the past five years, after placing third in elections on 17
January. His erstwhile ally, Prime Minister Ms. Yuliya
Tymoshenko, came in second in the runoff on 7 February. Although she
is challenging that former Prime
Minister Viktor Yanukovych, the arch
foe of the Orange Revolution, won the election, she is about to lose her office.
The president-elect will stay closer to Moscow and will not work to bring
Ukraine into the European Union (EU) or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO).
*** The Muslim Brotherhood
(MB) in Egypt elected a new leader, a
conservative, and there is concern especially among younger members that the
group may be less inclined toward reforms and more interested in strengthening
the organization and advancing Islamic thought. MB is banned, not recognized as
a party but some 20 percent of seats in the People’s Assembly are held by
Brotherhood members. New report of civil and
human rights violations: The security ministry of
Iran confirmed on 5 January that citizens are forbidden contact with
some 60 western organizations, incl. Human Rights Watch, access to
“counter-revolutionary” websites, and were told to shun contact with foreigners,
including embassies.
Iraq’s
Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) on 14 January barred some 500
candidates from elections in March, incl. some influential Sunni leaders, on the
pretext of affiliation with the former Arab Socialist Renaissance or Baath
Party. On appeal by opposition candidates, on 3 February, a court rescinded the
ban but now it appears that only one in five of the candidates may run. Whenever there is the
faint appearance of progress in Israeli-Palestinian relations, someone on either
side is sure to spoil it. Remarks by the prime minister of
Israel on 24 January that some Jewish colonies in the West Bank
would always remain part of Israel, were one of those reappearing obstacles. While the European Union
(EU) is pressing Turkey’s government
to strengthen control over the military and end the army’s political role to
preserve the secular state, the government is confronted by accusations from
opposition and Israel. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Republican
People’s Party (CHP) allege that Turkey is moving toward a civilian
dictatorship. Israel’s military intelligence head said on 20 January that Turkey
is shifting toward radical Islam, a charge partially based on Turkey’s closer
relations with Syria.
***
Elections in January
10 Croatia: 2nd round of presidential election. The challenger was
elected. 10
Uzbekistan 2nd round of
election of 120-seat Legislative Chamber. Only pro-presidential parties
participated. 17
Chile: 2nd round of election of
president. It brought a conservative into government after ten years of
progressive rule. 17
Ukraine: Presidential election. The
challenger, a former prime minister, was elected. 19
United States of America--Massachusetts:
Special election to fill US Senate vacancy. A Republican is following a
Democratic senator. 25
Saint Kitts and Nevis: Election of 12
of 15 members of National Assembly. The governing party maintains its majority. 26
Sri Lanka: Presidential election. The
incumbent was reelected. Leadership Turnover in 2010 [see printed issue] 18th Annual Directory of Political Leaders of the World [see printed issue] (Issue contains 70 pages)
January 2010, no. 475 Viewing the World Current Concerns Haiti relief and reconstruction Climate change: new measures beyond weak Copenhagen compromise A/H1N1 virus pandemic: more than 14 000 deaths (26 January) Creeping censorship and intrusions of free internet Iran’s nuclear intransigence Al-Qai’da in Yemen A new year The start of 2010 was occasion for messages from a number of political leaders: China’s Hu Jintao urged maintaining steady and relatively fast economic development. Britain’s Gordon Brown reviewed last year’s bitter economic and financial experiences and promised to prevent terrorism in the country’s streets. He also outlined his priorities for the coming year: recovery, public services, cleanup politics, and maintaining strength. Nicolas Sarkozy repeated that although 2009 was hard, France did better than the others and assured all that in 2010 they would see the end of the tunnel and that it would be a year of renovation. Angela Merkel expressed optimism that Germany would master economic difficulties but warned that some things would be more difficult before they would improve. Dmitriy Medvedev too mentioned that the past year was not the easiest and thanked the Russian people for bearing up. He promised to do everything possible to make everybody’s life safer and more comfortable. The video message of Barack Obama was brief and after a reference to difficulties in 2009 he expressed his knowledge “that brighter days are ahead of us.” On 1 January, a number of countries took over the chairmanship of organizations: Canada, Group of Eight (G8); Ecuador, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), actual transfer on 23 December 2009; Spain, European Union (for 6 months); and Kazakhstan, Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The following countries will begin their two-year term as non-permanent members of the United Nations Security Council: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Gabon, Lebanon, and Nigeria. A new year The start of 2010 was occasion for messages from a number of political leaders: China’s Hu Jintao urged maintaining steady and relatively fast economic development. Britain’s Gordon Brown reviewed last year’s bitter economic and financial experiences and promised to prevent terrorism in the country’s streets. He also outlined his priorities for the coming year: recovery, public services, cleanup politics, and maintaining strength. Nicolas Sarkozy repeated that although 2009 was hard, France did better than the others and assured all that in 2010 they would see the end of the tunnel and that it would be a year of renovation. Angela Merkel expressed optimism that Germany would master economic difficulties but warned that some things would be more difficult before they would improve. Dmitriy Medvedev too mentioned that the past year was not the easiest and thanked the Russian people for bearing up. He promised to do everything possible to make everybody’s life safer and more comfortable. The video message of Barack Obama was brief and after a reference to difficulties in 2009 he expressed his knowledge “that brighter days are ahead of us.” On 1 January, a number of countries took over the chairmanship of organizations: Canada, Group of Eight (G8); Ecuador, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), actual transfer on 23 December 2009; Spain, European Union (for 6 months); and Kazakhstan, Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The following countries will begin their two-year term as non-permanent members of the United Nations Security Council: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Gabon, Lebanon, and Nigeria. INDIA Government starts talks with ULFA militants After charges of foot-dragging and neglect in bringing peace and stability to Assam and Nagaland, central and state authorities took steps in early December to talk with insurgent leaders. After the seizure in Bangladesh and handover to India of Arabinda Rajkhowa on 2 December and others two days later, the chief minister of Assam announced on 28 December that “the process for peace talks” with one of the major groups, United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), has started. Currently Rajkhowa, ULFA Chairman, is holding talks with co-leaders. They are in Guwahati Central Jail but are receiving special treatment by government request. On the outside, a Peoples Consultative Group, is also deliberating new steps. ULFA is insisting on an independent Assam, a demand both central and state government are rejecting.JAPAN Prime minister hopes to abandon his promises to gain ‘flexibility’ Politicians take note. Here’s a new explanation why you can ignore promises made in an election campaign: flexibility. Prime Minister and the Secretary General of the governing Democratic Party of Japan are already tainted by scandal from a land deal and under-reported political contributions. Now Yukio Hatoyama (born 11 February 1947) is also under fire for seeming to step back from promises made during the election campaign. He does not see it quite that way but suggests that there is a need for “flexibility” to respond to new developments. On 17 December, the prime minister said he may give up major promises made by his parties such as ending a provisional gasoline tax and providing allowances to families with children regardless of income. On 21 December, Hatoyama said the provisional tax would be replaced with a new tax. The Japanese press notes that Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa (born 24 May 1942) is behind the changes which the government denies although Hatoyama allows that “we need to listen to the voice of the DPJ” as The Japan Times reports. EGYPT Another term for Mubarak? Other candidacies stymied Presidential elections are due in 2011 and will probably be held in September. The incumbent, former Air Marshal Mohammed Hosni Said Mubarak (born 4 May 1928), President since October 1981, has not revealed whether he will seek another 6-year term. His state of health is uncertain but in the past it has not kept him from standing for reelection. The younger son, Gamal Mubarak (born 1963), continues to be talked about as his father’s successor but support is far from unanimous. Serving as Chairman of the Future Generation Foundation (FGF), a public interest advocacy group, he is also Secretary General of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). Recently, two new potential candidacies for the presidency have appeared but one has ruled himself out and the other one says he is considering: Amr Mousa (born 1936), the Secretary General of the League of Arab States (LAS) since 2001 and his country’s foreign minister from 1991 until 2001, has shown a willingness to be a candidate. But in an interview with the Cairo daily Al Masry Al Youm in late December, Mousa said he would not run “under the current conditions” as outlined below. Dr. Mohammad Mostafa Al Baradei (born 17 June 1942), Secretary General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from 1997 until November 2009 has neither ruled in or out the possibility of his candidacy for president but expects guarantees for fair and honest elections. Both men do not wish to join a party and would run as independents although the latter could obtain the endorsement of the New Wafd Party. There are at least seven other possible candidates, including the intelligence chief and members of the opposition, who would probably not pass muster with the governing National Democratic Party (NDP). Aside from the required Egyptian citizenship, a candidate must either be endorsed by a recognized political party or if standing as an independent obtain at least 250 endorsements from the two houses of the legislatures and local councils The bicameral legislature is composed of the 265-seat Advisory Council of which 88 members are presidential appointees. The 454-seat People’s Assembly is controlled by the governing NDP which has 265 seats. TURKEY Democratic Society Party banned 4th setback for Kurdish political cause The Constitutional Court on 11 December decided unanimously to ban the Democratic Society Party (DTP) [2009 p. 4002] for being an extension of the banned Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) as requested by the chief prosecutor on 16 November 2007. The court ruled that the party was undermining national unity and cooperating with the PKK. The party was launched in 2005 when it was feared that the pro-Kurdish People’s Democracy Party (HADEP) would be banned. It never formally rejected the PKK and advocated a peaceful solution to the recognition of Kurdish aspirations, culture, language, and political rights. Its 21 elected members form the first Kurdish faction in the Grand National Assembly. The ban dissolves the party transfers its assets to the state strips two deputies of their parliamentary seats: Ahmet Türk (born 2 July 1942), Mardin Province, DTP Co-Chairman; and Ms. Leyla Zana (born 3 May 1961), Deputy from Diyarbakir Province; and bars the following 37 DTP members from any political activity for five years: Hatice Adıbelli, DTP Van Provincial Administrator, Adana Patriotic Democratic Youth Assembly (YDG-M); Kemal Aktaş, DTP Administrator, Diyarbakir; Necdet Atalay, Mayor of Batman; Murat Avcı, former Mayor of Siirt; Ahmet Ay, DTP Mersin Province Manager; Ayhan Ayaz, DTP member; Hilmi Aydoğdu, DTP Diyarbakir Provincial Chairman; Hüseyin Bektaşoĝlu, DTP Erzincan Provincial DTP Chairman; İzzet Belge, DTP Şırnak Provincial Chairman; Ali Bozan, DTP Mersin Provincial Chairman; Aydın Budak, Mayor of Cizre; Fettah Dadaş, DTP Karaçoban District Chairman; Nurettin Demirtaş (born 1972), former DTP President; Mehmet Veysi Dilekçi, Van Provincial manager; Ahmet Ertak, former Mayor of Şirnak; Musa Farisoğlullari, DTP Diyarbakir Provincial Manager; Abdülkadir Firat, DTP founding member, DTP Ceylanpınar District Manager, Şanlıurfa Province ; Bedri Fırat, DTP Erzurum Provincial Chairman; Abdullah Isnaç, DTP Şirnak Province Manager; Halit Kahraman, DTP Ceylanpınar District Manager, Şanlıurfa Province ; Hüseyin Kalkan, former Mayor of Batman; Ayan Karabuluk, former Mayor of Batman; Cemal Kuhak, DTP Tunceli Provincial Manager; Orhan Miroğlu, former DTP Chairman; Selim Sadak, DTP founding member and Mayor of Siirt; Mehmet Salih Sağlam, DTP Ceylanpınar District Manager, Şanlıurfa Province, DTP founding member ; İbrahim Sungur, Member of DTP Van Provincial Executive Committee; Murat Taş, DTP Ağri Provincial Manager; Metin Tekçe, former Mayor of Hakkari; Mustafa Tuç, DTP Gaziantep Provincial Chairman; Ms. Aysel Tuĝluk* (born 17 July 1965), Deputy from Diyarbakir Province; Ahmet Türk* (born 2 July 1942), Mardin Province, DTP Co-Chairman; Ferhan Türk, Mayor of Kızıltepe; Hacı Űzen, DTP Silopi District Chairman; Deniz Yeşilyurt, DTP member; Sedat Yurttaş, former DTP Chairman and former Deputy; and Ms. Leyla Zana* (born 3 May 1961), Deputy from Diyarbakir Province. * Elected deputy of Grand National Assembly of Turkey The following were elected in 2007 to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey and formerly belonged to the DTP: Ms. Ayla Akat Ata (born 16 February 1976) (Batman) Ms. Emine Ayna (born 1 July 1968) (Mardin) Ms. Sevahir Bayındır (born 1 January 1969) (Şırnak) İbrahim Binici (Şanlıurfa) Akın Birdal (İstanbul) Ms. Pervin Buldan (Iğdır) Selehattin Demirtaş (Diyarbakır) Hamit Geylani (Hakkari) Şerafettin Halis (Tunceli) Hasik Kaplan (Şırnak) Mehmet Nezir Karabaş (Bitlis) Ms. Gültan Kışanak (born 15 June 1961) (Diyarbakır) Ms. Fatma Kurtulan (born 1 March 1964) (Van) Osman Özçelik (Siirt) Sırrı Sakık (Muş) Ms. Aysel Tuğluk (born 17 July 1965) (Diyarbakır) Ms. Sebahat Tuncel (İstanbul) Ahmet Türk (Mardin) Özdal Uçer (Van) Nuri Yaman (Muş) Bengi Yıldız (Batman)
On 12 December, the co-chairman of the DTP announced a boycott of the legislature and all deputies withdrew but on 18 December the remaining 19 members of the banned DTP announced they would remain in parliament and join the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), a Kurdish group formed in May. AUSTRALIA Liberals choose climate change skeptic leader At a meeting of the opposition Liberal Party of Australia (LPA/Lib.) in Canberra on 1 December Anthony John “Tony” Abbott (born 4 November 1957) received 42 (35) votes and was elected Leader in a second round, followed by incumbent Malcolm Bligh Turnbull (born 24 October 1954), 41 (26) votes. Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (born 2 August 1965) (23) lost out in the first round (results shown in parentheses). Abbott is a climate change skeptic and against the government’s proposed Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) which is scheduled for a vote in February 2010. He was first elected to the House of Representatives in 1994 and has served for ten years in four cabinet positions. On 8 December, the new leader named new members to the frontbench who are described by a government spokesman as “deniers and extremists.” Canada: Cabinet Directory [see printed issue] Germany: Cabinet Directory [see printed issue] (Issue contains 36 pages)
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