An incisive summary of the Top Ten Middle East Crises 2009 was posted on Informed Comment (www.juancole.com) by Prof. Juan Cole, internationally respected historian and expert on the Middle East and South Asia on 29 December:

1. The suffering of the Gazans living under Israeli blockade and their lack of essential services.
 

2. The roadblock to further peace negotiations after the failure of Israel’s Gaza War and its discreditability  in the wake of reported war crimes.

3. Announced intention of Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas to resign.

4. The election of Israel’s most right-wing government in history and its obstruction of the renewed US peace process.

5. A creeping coup by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and the stealing of the June presidential election.

6. The theft of the presidential election by Afghan President Hamid Karzai and destruction of the credibility of his government.

7. Pakistan’s conflict in the rural, Pashtun Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATAs) and spill over into the Punjab.

8. Yemen falling apart. Conflict over water and other rural resources drives this descent into a failed state.

9. Iraq still far from being stable.

10. Dubai, a financial hub of the Gulf, collapsed economically.

(No. 474 December 2009)

Turkey’s Constitutional Court banned the Democratic Society Party (DTP) on 11 December for serving as an extension of the illegal Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK).  The ruling is  expected to further call into question  the country’s admission into the European Union (EU). (No. 474 December 2009)

In the Middle East, Armenia and Turkey are normalizing relations and the UN Secretary General says Jerusalem must be the capital of both Israel and Palestine. (No. 473 November 2009)

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

 Israel fights international condemnation

It may be a sign of greater concern with trying to be objective, avoiding to see conflicts in black or white, or access to better information. Skeptics may infer that the authors are diplomatic and wish to give credence to all sides. Israel’s government certainly does not see it that way, rejects the findings of the Goldstone report and says it is insulting to be cited in one breath with its Palestinian Arab foe HAMAS. A warning: practically everything that has to do with the United Nations (UN) and Israel is attacked or rejected by Israel and if it is mandated, the Jewish state frequently ignores or violates the resolution.

At the request of the United Nations Human Rights Council, South African judge Richard Goldstone investigated violations of international human rights and international humanitarian law committed before, during, or after military operations in Gaza from 27 December 2008 and 18 January 2009. The 575-page report was released on 15 September and accuses Israel and the Movement of Islamic Resistance (HAMAS) of having committed war crimes. Israel is also accused of using disproportionate force and showing only cursory concern for civilian lives. When the investigation first started, Israel condemned it and refused any cooperation. Now it says the report does not acknowledge that Israel was acting in self-defense, discounting HAMAS suicide attacks. (No. 472 October 2009) 

Iraq: Pro-government Shi’ite party places first in provincial elections

Elections for provincial councils were held in 14 of 18 Governates on 31 January. As part of the compromise on reaching agreement on the provincial election law, voting in the following four predominantly Kurdish provinces were postponed: Arbil, As-Sulaymaniyah, At-Ta’mim (which includes Kirkuk), and Dahuk. The Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI) estimated that 51 percent of eligible voters participated. The IECI organized the elections with assistance from the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) and the Multi-National Force Iraq.

Some 14,341 candidates, including 3,912 women, of more than 400 coalitions and parties stood for election of 440 seats. No party gained a majority but the Al-Hadbaa National List, an Arab nationalist and anti-Kurdish coalition obtained the highest plurality of 48 percent and 19 of 37 seats, in Nineveh Governate, the only province in which it ran. (The opposing Kurdish Alliance placed second with 12 seats.)

Overall, the Government [State] of Law coalition of the Islamic Mission [Call] Party (al-Dawah al-Islamiyah), a Shi’ite nationalist and pro-central government party,  placed first in nine provinces and tied for first place with another one. It is led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki (born 1950). Its candidates obtained 126 seats, representing 29 percent of contested seats. It was followed by the Ahahid al- Mehrab Martyr and Independent Forces List of the Shi’ite Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), the largest parliamentary party (known as Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq or SCIRI before May 2007). It is led by Sayyed Abdul Aziz al-Hakim (born 1953), theologian. Its candidates gained 54 or 12 percent of all seats and placed or tied second in 6 provinces.

Shi’a leaders had hoped that the predominantly Shi’ite provinces in the south could form a regional government, similar the Kurdish regime in the north. For now, the strong showing of the pro-central government Islamic Mission Party, torpedoed this plan.

Source: Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI), Final results of 19 February 2009.

Parties

State of Law (Islamic Dawa Party/Islamic Mission Party)

Asahid Al-Mehrab Martyr and Independent Forces List (Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq)

Independent Trend of the Noble Ones (Moqtada al-Sadr)

Iraqi Islamic Party/Iraqi Accordance Front (IIP/IAF)

Iraqi National List (INL)

National Reform Trend (National Reform Movement)

Iraq National Project (INP)

Kurdish Alliance/Ninewa Brotherhood List (KA/BN)

Fadhila Party

National Movement for Development and Reform (NMDR)

Iraqi Turkman Front (ITF)

Provinces

AN Anbar  BAB Babil  BAG Baghdad  BAS Basra  DI Diyala  DH  Dhiqar  KA Karbala  Ma Maysan

MU Muthanna  NA  Najaf  NI  Nineveh  QA Qasissiyah  SA  Salhuddin  WA  Wassit

(No. 466 April 2009)

Near East: The Union of the Mediterranean was not exactly still born but its growth is stunted. Reason: When Israel attacked Palestinians in Gaza in December, the Egyptian president in effect suspended participation, a course being followed by the other Arab members. (No.465 March 2009)

One development that was generally welcomed in the region was the announced withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraq by August 2010. (No.465 March 2009)