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Bio Briefs Deaths in 2009 Albania Fatmir Xhindi, 49, shot and killed by two unknown assailants on 2 May near his home in Roskovec, Fier Region. He was a vice leader of the Socialist Party of Albania (PSS) (successor to the former Communist Party of Albania (PKS) and deputy of the People’s Assembly. Argentina Raúl Alfonsín, 82, from lung cancer at his home in Buenos Aires on 1 April. He belonged to the Radical Citizens’ Union (UCR) and served as the first democratically elected President after the end of the military dictatorship from 1983-1989. Belgium Karel Van Miert, 67, of cardiac arrest after falling from a garden ladder on 22 June in Beersel, Flemish Brabant. He belonged to the Socialist Party – Differently (SP.A) which he led from 1979 until 1989 when joined the European Commission and served first as Commissioner for Transport and then for Competition (1989-1999). Pierre Harmel, 98, in Brussels on 15 November. He was the 39th Prime Minister from 1965 until 1966 and later served as foreign minister. In 1966 he participated in a study of future tasks of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and produced a guiding report named after him. Canada Romeo LeBlanc, 81, after a lengthy illness, Alzheimer’s Disease, at his home in Grande-Digue, New Brunswick, on 24 June. A member of the Liberal Party, he served in Parliament beginning in 1972 and as cabinet minister and from 1995 until his resignation in 1999 was the 25th Governor General. Central African Republic Dr. Abel Goumba, 82, in a clinic in the capital on 11 May. He served as Prime Minister and Vice President (2003-2005). Chad Félix Malloum, 76, of cardiac arrest at the American Hospital in Paris on 12 June. He served as Prime Minister and President from 1975 until 1979. China Dong Yinchu, 94, from an illness in Shanghai on 23 June. He was a member of the Public Interest or China Zhi Gong Party since 1978 and a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPPC) from 1978 until 1998. Ngapoi Ngawang Jigme, 99, from an illness in Beijing on 23 December. In 1965 he became the first President of the Tibet Autonomous Region and served until 1968. Congo (B) Bernard Bakana Kolélas, 76, who was suffering from Alzheimer’s Disease in Paris on 12 November. He was President of the Congolese Movement for Democracy and Integral Development (MCDDI) which he founded in 1989 and headed the so-called Ninja militia. He served as Prime Minister in 1997 and fled after the government was overthrown. Cuba General Juan Almeida Bosque, 82, of heart failure in the capital on 11 September. He was one of the original participants in the Cuban Revolution in 1953, a leading member of the Cuban Communist Party (PCC) and served as a Vice President of the Council of State. Finland Ms. Susanna Haapoja, 42, from suffering a brain hemorrhage, at Tampere University Hospital on 30 May. A member of the Center Party (Kesk), served as second term as member of Parliament. France René Monory, 86, from intestinal and severe respiratory problems at his home near Loudon, Vienne Dept., on 11 April. A member of the Union for French Democracy (UDF), he served as Minister of Economy and National Education and President of the Senate from 1992 until 1998. Gabon El Hadji Omar Bongo Odimba, 73, of a heart attack at Quiron clinic in Barcelona, Spain, on 8 June. He had served as President since 1967 as was Africa’s longest serving ruler. Germany Ernst Benda, 84, suddenly on 2 March in Karlsruhe, Baden-Wűrttemberg. A member of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), he served as Minister of the Interior and President of the Federal Constitutional Court. Jűrgen Rieger, 63, of a stroke in Berlin on 29 October. Practicing as a lawyer, he served as Deputy leader of the neo-Nazi National Democratic Party of Germany (NPD). Hans Hermann Matthöfer, 84, after a long illness in Berlin on 15 November. He belonged to the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and served as Minister of Finance from 19768 until 1982. Dr. Otto Graf Lambsdorff, 82, from several medical conditions in a hospital in Bonn, on 5 December. He belonged to the Free Democratic Party (FDP) which he led from 1988 until 1993 and served twice as Minister of Economics. Germany-United Kingdom Ralf Gustav Dahrendorf, later Lord Dahrendorf, 80, of cancer in Cologne, Germany, on 17 June. Originally a member of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), he later joined the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and served as European Commissioner for Foreign Relations and Foreign Trade and Research, Science, and Education from 1970 until 1974. After becoming a British subject he was awarded life peerage in recognition of his academic and political contributions. Guinea-Bissau Retired General João “Nino” Bernardo Vieira, 69, killed by soldiers on 2 March while trying to flee from his residence. Major Baciro Dabó, 51, shot and killed by soldiers in his home on 5 June. He served as Minister of Territorial Administration and following the assassination of the president (see above) stood as presidential candidate. Helder Proença, shot and killed by soldiers on a road between Bula and the capital on 5 June, reportedly for alleged involvement in a coup d’état. He was a member of the National People’s Assembly and had served as Minister of Defense. Luís Severino de Almeida Cabral, 78, after a long illness in Torrese Vedras, Portugal, on 30 May. He was the cofounder of the governing African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde PAIGC) and country’s first President from 1973 until 1980 when he was overthrown. Guyana Ms. Janet Jagan, née Rosenberg, 88, of an abdominal aneurysm, at the Georgetown Public Hospital on 28 March. A member of the governing People’s Progressive Party (PPP), she served briefly as Prime Minister and President following the death of her husband from 1997 until 1999 when she resigned because of poor health. India Govind Singh Gurjar, 78, after a brief illness in New Delhi on 6 April. The senior leader of the Indian National Congress (INC) party served as the 19th Lieutenant Governor of Puducherry Union Territory since March 2008. Ramaswamy Venkataraman, 98, after a prolonged illness at the Army Research and Referral Hospital in New Delhi on 27 January. he senior member of the Indian National Congress (INC) served as Vice President from 1984-1987 and was the 89th President from July 1987-July 1992. Prabhakar Sanzgiri, 88, after a prolonged illness at his home in Bhandup, Mumbai, on 10 March. He served as member of the State Legislative Assembly of Maharashtra from 1978 until 1987 and was General Secretary of the state branch of the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) until his retirement on health grounds in 2007. Durga Soren, 39, died in his sleep at home at Bokaro, Jharkhand, on 21 May. He was the national General Secretary of the Jharkhand Liberation Front or Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) party. Shiv Charan Mathur, 83, of a heart attack in a hospital in the capital on 25 June. The two-term Chief Minister of Rajasthan was a member of the Indian National Congress (INC) and Governor of Assam since 2008. Devendra Nath Dwivedi, 74, before receiving a liver transplant in Sir Ganga Ram Hospital in New Delhi on 1 August. The constitutional lawyer was designated Governor of Gujarat in July 2009. Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy, 60, killed in a helicopter accident in the Nallamala forest ranges, Kurnool District, Andhra Pradesh, on 2 September. He was a member of the Indian National Congress (INC) and had served as Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh since 2004 and four terms in the Lok Sabha. Shilendra Kumar Singh, 77, after a short illness at Sir Ganga Ram Hospital in the capital on 1 December. He served as Governor of Rajasthan since 2007 until his death. Suryakant Acharya, 80, died in his sleep at his home in Junagadh, Gujarat, on 21 December. The lawyer was a member of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and represented Gujarat in the Rajya Sabha house of Parliament Indonesia Abdurrahman “Gus Dur” Wahid (born Abdurrahman Addakhil), 69, from a kidney condition in a hospital in the capital on 30 December. He founded the Islamist National Awakening Party (PKB) in 1998 and served as the country’s President from 1999 until 2001. Iran Ali Kordan, 51, of multiple myeloma at Masihe Daneshvari hospital in the capital on 22 November. He served in the Revolutionary Guards and as Minister of Interior for three months in 2008 when he was impeached and dismissed after he had wrongfully claimed a doctorate. Grand Ayatollah Hussein-Ali Montazeri, died in his sleep of heart failure at his home in Qom on 19 December. He was one of the leaders of the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and served as Deputy to the Supreme Leader in 1985 until his removal in 1989. Until his death he remained a severe critic of the regime. Iraq The following candidates lost their lives during the campaign for provincial elections on 31 January when they were assassinated by political opponents or their accomplices: · Mowaffaq al-Hamdani, Iraq for Us, shot dead in a café in Mosul, on 31 December; · Haytham al-Husseini, State of Law (Dawlat al-Qanoon), shot dead in Hilla, Babel Province, on 16 January (four body guards were injured and three policemen were arrested on suspicion of involvement); · Sheikh Hassan Zeidan al-Luhaibi, 59, National Dialog Front, killed by a suicide bomber in a tribal guesthouse along with two relatives and wounding of two police officers, in Gayara, Nineveh Province, on 18 January; · Hazem Salem Ahmed, National Unity List, shot dead outside his home in Mosul, on 29 January; · Omar Faruq al-Ani, Iraqi Islamic Party (IAF), shot dead near his home in Amiriya District, Baghdad, on 29 January; and · Abbas Farhan, National Movement of Reform and Development, shot dead in a village near Mandili, Diyala Province, on 29 January [p. 3700]. Harith Al Obaidi, shot dead by unknown men in front of the Al Shawaf mosque in the capital on 12 June. He was a member of the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party/Iraqi Accordance Front (IIP/IAF), a member of the National Assembly, and leader of the IIP/IAF parliamentary group. Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, 59, of lung cancer at a hospital in Tehran on 26 August. He had led the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), the major Shi’a political movement, since 2003. Israel Ephraim Katzir, 93, at his home in Rehovot on 30 May. The internationally recognized biophysicist served as the 4th President from 1973 until 1978. Italy Ms. Susanna Agnelli, 87, after a fall at her home and hospitalization in Rome, on 15 May. A member of the family owners of FIAT, she was elected to the Chamber of Deputies as a candidate of the Italian Republican Party (PRI), became a senator, and served as Minister of Foreign Relations (1995-1996). Japan Shoichi Nakagawa, 56, found dead in his apartment in the capital on 4 October. He was a member of the former governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and had last served as Minister of Finance from 2008 until 2009. Korea (ROK) Roh Moo-hyun, 62, of head injuries sustained in a suicide fall off a mountain cliff near his home town of Gimae, Gyewongsangnam Province, on 23 May. He belonged to Our Open Party (URI), served as 16th President from 2003 until 2008, and was under investigation for alleged corruption. Kim Dae-jung, 83, of heart failure following pneumonia at Severance Hospital in Seoul on 18 August. He served as 15th President from 1998 until 2003 and received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2000 for his efforts to advance democracy in Korea. Kyrgyzstan Medet Sadyrkulov, 55, killed in a car crash on 13 March which supporters say was an assassination. Her was a former ambassador and opposition politician. Madagascar Jacques Hugues Sylla, 63, after a long illness in the capital on 26 December. A member of the ruling I Love Madagascar (TIM) party and its Secretary General in 2002, he served as Prime Minister from 2002 until 2007 and as President of the National Assembly from 2007 until 2009. Nigeria Mamman Bello Ali, 50, of leukemia on 27 January. He served as Governor of Yobe State since 2007. Pakistan Alam Zaib Khan, killed by a remote-controlled bomb when traveling in a car in Momin Town Peshawar, North West Frontier Province, on 11 February. He was a member of the National Assembly and belonged to the Awami National Party (ANP) [p. 3701]. Hussain Ali Yousoufi, shot by two men on a motorcycle while getting out of his car, died on his way to the hospital, on 26 January in Quetta, Baluchistan. He was the chairman of the Hazara Democratic Party. The banned Islamic Army of Jhang or Lashkar-i-Jhangvi claimed responsibility. Shafique Ahmed Khan, 55, shot and killed in front of his house in Quetta, Balochistan, on 26 October. He had served as Balochistan Minister of Education since 2008. Palestine Shafiq al-Hout, 77, of cancer in Tariq al-Jdeideh, Lebanon, on 2 August. Tariq al-Jdeideh, Lebanon. He founded the Palestinian Liberation Front (PLF) in 1961 and was a co-founder of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). Samir Ghoseh, 69, of cancer in Amman on 3 August. He was Secretary General of the Palestinian Popular Struggle Front (PPSF) since 1974 and a member of the Executive Committee of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) since 1989. Sakher Habash, 70, of a stroke in the West Bank on 1 November. He was a founding member of the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (al-Fatah) and served in leading positions. Panama Anel Omar Rodríguez, 47, accidentally shot and killed during a robbery in the capital on 10 March. He a former Minister of Culture and a leading member of the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD). Dr. Guillermo David Endara Galimany, 73, of cardiac arrest at his home in the capital on 28 September. He served as President from 1989 until 1994. Philippines Ms. Corazon Aquino, 76, of colon cancer at a hospital in the capital on 1 August. She served as President from 1986 until 1992. Russia Aleksandr Kosopkin, 51, in a helicopter crash near Chornaya Mountain, Republic of Altai, on 9 January. He had served as Presidential Envoy to the State Duma since 2004. Igor’ Yesipovsky and three others died on 9 May when their helicopter crashed on 9 May at Malyshkino, Shelekhovskiy rayon, Irkutsk oblast’. Yesipovsky served as Governor of the region since April 2008. Retired Army General Valentin Ivanovich Varrenikov, 85, in Moscow on 6 May. The former Deputy Minister of Defense (1989-1991) was an active participant in the attempted overthrow of the government in August 1991 and was persecuted and acquitted later. Adilgerei Magomedtagirov, 52, shot and killed by one armed man in Makhachkala, Dagestan, on 5 June. He had served as Minister of Internal Affairs of the Republic since 1956. Ms. Aza Gazgireyeva, shot and killed by motorized assailants in Nazran, Ingushetia, on 10 June. She was the Deputy Chairman of the Supreme Court of the Republic. Bashir Magometovich Aushev, 62, shot and killed by motorized assailants near his home in Nazran, Ingushetia on 13 June. He served as Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic from 2002 until 2008. Yegor Timurovich Gaidar, 53, of pulmonary edema at his home in Moscow oblast’ on 16 December. He served as acting Prime Minister in 1992 and was chiefly responsible for the economic reconstruction using “shock therapy” following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Somalia Each month, hundreds of people meet with violent death, some belonging to the government, others to clans, militias, and anti-government groups, as well as innocent bystanders. Politicians are no exception as summarized briefly: 15 January—Abdirahman Ahmed, politician, executed by Somali Islamists for alleged apostasy. 30 March--A former minister, Abdi Rahman Mohamud Jima’ale, was killed on a street of the capital, reportedly by gunfire from a group of soldiers. 15 April—Abdullahi Isse Abtidon, elected member of the Transitional National Assembly in January, shot to death in the capital by unidentified insurgents. 18 June—Omar Hashi Aden, Minister of Internal Security, killed by a suicide bombing at a hotel in Beledsweyne, north of the capital. 3 December—Qamar Aden Ali, Minister of Health, Ibrahim Hassan Adow, Minister for Higher Education, and Ahmed Abdullahi Wayei, Minister for Education, killed by a suicide bombing. South Africa Dr. Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri, 71, of medical complications at Kloof Hospital in Pretoria on 6 April. A trained sociologist, she served as Chairman of the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) and as Minister of Communications from 1999 until he death. Dr. Manto Tshabala-Msimang, 69, of a liver disease in a hospital in Johannesburg on 16 December. A member of the African National Congress (ANC), she served as Minister of Health and raised controversy by questioning the connection between HIV and Aids and recommending natural foods, such as beetroot to treat the symptoms of Aids. Sri Lanka Vellupillai Prabhakaran, 54, either killed by troops or executed after capture on 17 May at Nandikathal lagoon north of Vellamullivaikkal, Mullaithivu, Northern Region. The former teacher founded the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTEE) in May 1976 and led the civil war for Tamil self-determination until his death. Sudan Gaafar Muhammad an-Nimeiry, 79, after a long sickness in the military hospital of Omdurman on 30 May. The colonel seized the government in 1969 and remained Chairman of the Revolutionary Command Council until 1971 and after elected 5th President ruled the country as virtual dictator until 1985 when he was ousted by the military. Tajikistan Lieutenant General Mirzo Ziyoyev, 58, shot to death during a gun fight between security forces and drug traffickers who he allegedly had joined, in Tavildara district on 11 July. He commanded the insurgent United Tajik Opposition (UTO) and served as Minister of Emergencies from 1997 until 2006. Thailand Suchart Chaovisith, 69, of laryngeal cancer in the Bumrungrad International Hospital in the capital on 22 October. He served as Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister in 2004. Samak Sundaravej, 74, of cancer in the capital on 24 November. He belonged to the People’s Power Party (PPP) and served briefly as the 25th Prime Minister in 2008. Tonga Baron Vaea aka Siaosi Tuʻihala ʻAlipate Vaea Tupou, 88, after a short illness at his home in Houma, Tongatapu, on 7 June. He serve d as Prime Minister from 1991 until 2000. Tunisia Habib Bourguiba, Jr., 82, after ailing for months, in the capital on 28 December. He was the son of the country’s first president and served as Minister of Foreign Affairs, Justice, and as ambassador between 1958 and 1987. Turkey Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu, 54, and five others were killed in a helicopter crash near Sisne, Kahramanmanas Province, on 25 March. He was the leader and founder of the ultra-nationalist Grand Unity Party (BBP). Ertugrul Osman, 97, in Istanbul, reported BBC on 24 September. The prince was the last surviving grandson of the last Ottoman Sultan. United Arab Emirates—Umm al-Qatwayn Sheikh Rashid ibn Ahmad al-Mu’alla, 79, in London on 2 January. He ruled Umm al-Qatwayn from 1981 until his death. United Kingdom David Taylor, 63, of a heart attack at Queen’s Hospital. Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire, on 27 December. The Member of Parliament for the Labour Party representing North West Leicestershire distinguished himself for serving since 1997 and helping advance anti-smoking legislation. United States of America Claiborne Pell, 90, suffering from Parkinson’s disease, at his home in Newport, Rhode Island, on 1 January. The former diplomat, a Democrat, served in the US Senate from 1961 until 1995 where headed the Foreign Relations Committee. Jack Kemp, 73, of cancer at his home in Bethesda, Maryland, on 2 May. A member of the Republican Party, he served nine terms in the US House of Representatives (1971-1989)and as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. He became also known as an ardent supporter of the so-called supply-side economies. Robert Strange McNamara, 93, died in his sleep at his home in Washington DC on 6 July. After heading the Ford Motor Company, he served as Secretary of Defense from 1961 to 1968 during the Vietnam War. From 1968 to 1981 he was President of the World Bank. Edward Moore “Ted” Kennedy, 77, of brain cancer at his home in Hyannis Port, Massachusetts, on 25 August. He was a member of the Democratic Party and served 46 years in nine terms in the US Senate since 1962.Venezuela
Rafael Antonio Caldera Rodríguez, 93, suffering from Parkinson’s Disease in Caracas on 24 December. He was the founder of Copei–Social Christian Party of Venezuela (COPEI) and served twice as elected President from 1969 to 1974 and from 1994 to 1999.ZambiaLieutenant General Christon Tembo, 65, in intensive care at the University Teaching Hospital in the capital on 6 March. He served as Vice President from 1997 until 2001.ZimbabweJoseph Wilfred Msika, 75, after ailing since June at St. Anne’s hospital in the capital on 4 August. He joined the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) in 1987 and became Vice President in 1999. (No. 474 December 2009)A new survey based on 6,000 measurements of multi-year ice, released on 14 October, confirms other studies that the Arctic ice cap will have disappeared by 2030. Most of the ice will melt during the next ten years making the Arctic Ocean ice free and warming up the world. (No. 473 November 2009) Reporters without Borders place Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Norway, and Sweden at the top of their annual survey of global press freedom. The United States of America moved up 16 places (to 20). Turkmenistan, North Korea, and Eritrea are at the bottom of the list (173-175) and Russia took a dive of 12 places below Belarus (to 153). (No. 473 November 2009) UNITED NATIONS New members chosen for Security Council In uncontested races, the General Assembly of the United Nations by a two-thirds vote elected five nations as non-permanent members of the Security Council on 15 October [2008, p. 3579]. The following will serve a term of two years starting on 1 January 2010:
The five will replace Burkina Faso, Costa Rica, Croatia, Libya, and Vietnam. (No. 472 October 2009) What will happen to G-8? G-20, the Group of Developed and Developing Nations, was designated as the premier forum for international economic cooperation, heads of state and government agreed at the Pittsburgh Summit on 25 September. Following two summit meetings in 2010, leaders will meet annually. It means that the Group of Eight (G-8) will devote its meetings mainly to political and security issues and that its influence on the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank (IMF/IBDR) has been diluted. (Internally, the size of contributions continues to determine the number of national votes.) Through G-20, Brazil, China, and India as well as Australia, Canada, and South Africa will gain in power at the expense of the original five members of the Group of Five (G-5) which was created to discuss economic issues. (No. 472 October 2009) One of the significant international developments is the elevation of the Group of 20 (G-20) to become the world’s economic and financial forum. It appears that it will supplant the G-8 although some of the economies of G-20 members do not compare well will those of G-8 members Europe, Japan, and the US. (No. 471 September 2009) World energy use to rise but slightly less than predicted last year Energy is above all an economic subject but one with significant political implications. One need only revisit the energy shock of 1973 when the Arab oil embargo was imposed or the strategic considerations mentioned in connection with the 1990 Gulf War and the invasion of Iraq. Next to food and water, energy is of critical political importance--for supplier as well as for consumer. We have not reached the point of imminent resource wars, a subject that is rising to the foreground in public discussion, but related issues of conservation, climate change, and global warming are sharpening international debates. In the near term, world demand for energy is dampened by the current worldwide economic downturn. The demand for world energy continues to go up at a slightly lower rate. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy projects* that world energy consumption is increasing by 44 percent from 2006 to 2030 (50 percent from 2005 to 2030). The largest projected increase in energy demand is again for the region outside the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) or the industrial countries, at 73 percent, compared to 15 percent in OECD countries. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 472 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2006 (462 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2005) to 552 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and to 678 quadrillion Btu in 2030 (695 quadrillion Btu in last year’s forecast). Liquids, especially petroleum, are expected to remain the world’s dominant energy source and fossil fuels which include coal and natural gas, will continue supplying much of the energy used worldwide. World use of liquids and other petroleum grows from 85 million barrels per day in 2006 to 91 million barrels per day in 2015 and 107 million barrels per day in 2030. Total supply in 2030 is projected to be 22.0 million barrels per day higher than the 2006 level of 84.6 million barrels per day, assuming that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will maintain a share of approximately 40 percent of total world liquids production through 2030. The demand for natural gas will increase with rebounding world oil prices. Over the 2006-2030 forecast period, consumption of natural gas is projected to increase from 104 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2006 to 153 trillion cubic feet in 2030. Natural gas is used to displace the use of liquids in the industrial and electric power sectors in many parts of the world. It is both a more efficient fuel for electric power generation and less carbon intensive than other fossil fuels, and as a result it is an attractive energy source for the world’s power generation. It remains the world’s fastest-growing energy source for electricity generation in the current projection, from 32 percent in 2006 to 35 percent in 2030. In the absence of effective international and national steps to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, world coal consumption is growing and is expected to increase its share of world energy consumption. Coal use worldwide will increase from 127 quadrillion Btu in 2006 to 190 quadrillion Btu in 2030 (202 in last year’s estimate). Electricity use is forecast to grow from 18.0 trillion kilowatthours in 2006 and nearly doubling to 31.8 trillion kilowatthours in 2030. The strongest growth in net electricity consumption is projected for the non-OECD region, averaging 3.5 percent a year, and 1.2 percent a year in OECD nations over the projection period. Of alternative sources, renewable energy is the fastest-growing source of world electricity generation, spurred on by the expected high prices for fossil fuels and by government incentives for the development of alternative energy sources. From 2006 to 2030, world renewable energy use for electricity generation grows by an average of 2.9 percent per year, and the renewable share of world electricity generation increases from 19 percent in 2006 to 21 percent in 2030. There is considerable uncertainty associated with nuclear electricity generation. It is projected to increase from 2.7 trillion kilowatthours in 2006 to 3.8 trillion kilowatthours in 2030 (unchanged). The largest increase in installed nuclear generating capacity is projected for non-OECD Asia where nuclear power generation is projected to grow at an average rate of 7.8 percent per year from 2006 to 2030. Nuclear generation is projected to increase by 8.9 percent per year in China and by 9.9 percent per year in India. Outside Asia, the largest increase in installed nuclear capacity among the non-OECD nations is projected for Russia, with increases in nuclear power generation averaging 3.5 percent per year. In contrast, OECD Europe—where some national governments, including Germany and Belgium, still have plans in place to phase out nuclear programs entirely—is expected to see a small decline in nuclear power generation. Carbon dioxide emissions are rising from 29.0 billion metric tons in 2005 to 40.4 billion metric tons in 2030. In 2006, non-OECD emissions of carbon dioxide were 14 percent higher than OECD emissions. In 2030, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries are projected to exceed those from the OECD countries by 77 percent. Carbon dioxide is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere caused by humans. In recent years, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have been rising at a rate of about 0.5 percent a year, and because anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide result primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels for energy, world energy use has emerged at the center of the climate change debate. *International Energy Outlook 2008, Energy Information Administration. Washington DC: US Department of Energy, May 2009. (No. 471 September 2009) UN couples climate change and development goals to support stability Lagging development in poorer countries has always been cited as a threat to peace and security. In the latest World Economic and Social Survey 2009: Promoting Development, Saving the Planet issued by the United Nations (UN) on 1 September, climate change has been added as a threat. The world organization’s goals are to fight climate change and simultaneously meet development demands. A UN official says it would require a global public policy agenda, as market mechanisms were not the most effective instruments to drive change. The agenda would have to encompass a global investment program for both mitigation and adaptation, as well as new mechanisms for developing and transferring technologies, among other things. International political support needed to be rallied in order to come to a “global green new deal”. More mitigation now would mean less adaptation needed in the future. While there was now $21 billion available to address the climate challenge, there was a need for $500 billion to $600 billion a year--or 1 percent of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP). Ideas for financing included expansion of carbon credits from developing to developed countries and an international tax on carbon emissions. According to estimates, a $50 levy on 1 ton of carbon dioxide could generate $500 billion. The obstacle to such ideas was the difficulty in convincing politicians and their constituencies of the need for such measures. (As a yardstick on should keep in mind that during the financial crisis, the public actions to bail out banks and stimulus packages had amounted to 20 percent of the world’s GDP. That was significantly higher than the 1 percent needed for the climate challenge. Money was not the issue; it was the political will and conviction that, if investments were not made, systemic risks would be faced, the UN official pointed out.) (No. 471 September 2009) Will a shift of financial power upset the geo-political balance? These and other issues are addressed in this year’s survey of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) launched in London on 15 September. Two overriding global developments are given prominence. One is the continuing impact of the global economic and financial crisis and then there is the growing reluctance of Western nations, incl. the United States of America, to become deeply involved in humanitarian intervention unless there is a clear national interest. Afghanistan, Iran, North Korea, and Palestine again are of major concern and continue evading satisfactory solution. One interesting observation supports the formation of a Palestinian state, not because it would soon lead to peace but it would help some Arab states recognize Israel, thus leading to a strategic coalition to stand up to Iran. But advancing nuclear non-proliferation also depends on Israel. Russia and the US are seen as cooperating on strategic arms limitation but as long as Israel rejects joining international nuclear arms regimes the outlook for India, North Korea, and Pakistan adopting meaningful cutbacks remains doubtful. That goes for Iran too if or when it becomes nuclear armed. The IISS survey finds that while Western nations may withdraw from ambitious foreign policy agendas, such as nation building, except through coalitions, emerging countries if they wish to project international influence and power need to cooperate and participate more widely in global affairs and endeavors. (No. 471 September 2009) Aside from efforts by China and Russia to remove the US dollar as international currency standard, two other pillars of the post-World War 2 international order are facing change. The Group of Eight (G-8) of industrialized countries is being pressured to expand to 14 nations, including China. On the other hand, some of the G-8 members feel that the annual meetings are not very productive aside from giving world leaders a place to build personal relationships. Especially after the ill-prepared summit in Italy which was used distastefully by the prime minister to appear as world statesman in order to divert public criticism from his personal life, the usefulness of G-8 is put in question. While the agreement to limit temperature rises to no more than two degrees Centigrade is receiving some applause, climate change experts find it a meager result. (No. 469 July 2009) The Non Aligned Movement (NAM) which had just met for its 15th summit is eying the UN Security Council and the international financial groups and demanding more influence and presence. (No. 469 July 2009) UN elects new members for human rights body Some picks have poor records The Human Rights Council (UNHRC) which replaced the former Human Rights Commission is still criticized for including members with human rights record ranking from not very clean to dismal as shown below. One of the new members, the United States of America for some time belittled the Council’s role and made no effort to join until this year under a new Administration although its human rights record is not squeaky clean either because of its recent use of torture in interrogations. On 12 May, the General Assembly elected 5 new and reelected 13 members of the 47-seat Human Rights Council, including the United States of America for the first time after New Zealand withdrew. Also new are Belgium, Hungary, Kyrgyzstan, and Norway. Those reelected are Bangladesh, Cameroon, China, Cuba, Djibouti, Jordan, Mauritius, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, and Uruguay. Their records Bangladesh: Extrajudicial executions, custodial torture, arbitrary arrests, and impunity for members of the security forces continue to characterize the human rights situation in Bangladesh, reports Human Rights Watch (HRW). Political rights and civil liberties declined as judged by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Partly free. Belgium: Political rights and civil liberties record are judged excellent by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Free. Cameroon: Political rights and civil liberties declined with the steady return to a one-party system as judged by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Not free. *China: The Chinese government rejected, without exception, 70 recommendations by UN member states related to human rights abuses in China (HRW). The government’s overriding concern with stability led to continued restrictions on the media and repression of those seen as challenging the regime. China is not an electoral democracy. Although the state has permitted the growth of private sector economic activity, Chinese citizens cannot democratically change their leaders at any level of government as judged by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Not free. Cuba: It remains the one country in Latin American that represses nearly all forms of political dissent (HRW). Cuba is not an electoral democracy. The president dominates the political system. The country is a one-party state with the Cuban Communist Party (PCC) controlling all government entities from the national to the local level as judged by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Not free. Djibouti is not an electoral democracy. The trappings of representative government and electoral processes have little relevance to the real distribution and exercise of power. The ruling party has traditionally used the advantage of state resources to maintain itself in power as judged by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Partly free. Hungary: Political rights and civil liberties record are judged excellent by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Free. Jordan: It is not an electoral democracy. The king holds broad executive powers, appoints the prime minister and cabinet, and may dissolve the National Assembly and dismiss the cabinet at his discretion. The elected lower house, the National Assembly, is limited in its ability to initiate legislation and cannot enact laws without the assent of the appointed upper house, the Senate, as judged by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Partly free. Kyrgyzstan: Pluralism and fundamental freedoms that facilitate public scrutiny of government are increasingly at risk. Legislative changes passed or pending in 2008 curbed freedom of assembly and threatened to restrict religious freedoms. The government is failing to meet its obligations to prevent and investigate torture and domestic violence (HRW). Kyrgyzstan is not an electoral democracy. International election observers described elections in 2000 and 2005 as neither free nor competitive as judged by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Partly free. Mauritius: Its political rights and civil liberties record is judged near excellent by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Free. Mexico: The criminal justice system continues to be plagued by human rights problems and soldiers continue to commit egregious abuses while engaged in law enforcement activities. The political rights and civil liberties record is judged good by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Free. Nigeria: It has chronic human rights problems and endemic corruption (HRW). Nigeria is not an electoral democracy. During the April 2007 presidential election, HRW reported that voting “was marred by the late opening of polls, a severe shortage of ballot papers, the widespread intimidation of voters, the seizure of ballot boxes by gangs of thugs, vote buying and other irregularities.” The political rights and civil liberties record is judged extremely flawed by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Partly free. Norway: Political rights and civil liberties record is judged excellent by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Free. *Russia: It has been found to violate the right to life in more cases than each of the other 46 Council of Europe member states combined since the European Court for Human Rights (ECHR) started functioning in 1959. The government has not fulfilled its obligation to cooperate fully with UN human rights mechanisms (HRW). Russia is not an electoral democracy. The December 2007 State Duma elections were carefully engineered by the administration, handing pro-Kremlin parties a supermajority in the lower house. Corruption in the government and business world is pervasive. The political rights and civil liberties record is judged extremely flawed by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Not free. Saudi Arabia: Human rights conditions remain poor. International and domestic pressure to improve human rights practices remained feeble, and the government undertook no major reforms in 2008. The government systematically suppressed the rights of 14 million Saudi women and an estimated 2 to 3 million members of minority Shi’a communities (HRW). Saudi Arabia is not an electoral democracy. The country’s 1992 Basic Law declares that the Koran and the Sunna (the guidance set by the deeds and sayings of the prophet Muhammad) are the country’s constitution. The king appoints a Consultative Council which has limited powers and the appointed Council of Ministers passes legislation that becomes law once ratified by royal decree. The monarchy has a tradition of consulting with select members of Saudi society, but this process is not equally open to all citizens. The al-Saud dynasty dominates and controls political life in the kingdom. The royal family forbids the formation of political parties. The political rights and civil liberties record is judged very poor by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Not free. Senegal: The political rights and civil liberties record is judged near excellent by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Free. United States of America: Criminal justice policy continues to raise serious human rights concerns. 2008 saw the resumption of executions after a seven-month hiatus and continued growth of the US prison population, already the world's largest (HRW, European Union). The political rights and civil liberties record is judged excellent by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Free. (The US formally joined the UNHRC on 19 May.) Uruguay: The political rights and civil liberties record is judged excellent by Freedom House. Freedom rating: Free. *China and Russia are also identified as part of a five-nation authoritarian clique that use their wealth and influence to undermine global democracy and rule of law according to a study by Freedom House, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and Radio Free Asia which was released on 4 June in Washington DC. (No. 468 June 2009) Climate change will kill half a million people a year by 2030 Economic cost $300,000 million a year Immediately before the start of official preparatory talks in Bonn for a new UN international climate agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, the Global Humanitarian Forum (GHF) reported on 29 May that climate change is responsible for 300,000 deaths a year. While there are still efforts to deny or belittle international scientific findings about climate change and global warming, especially by business interests in the United States, the GHF also places a price tag on the total economic cost. GHF calculates more than 300 million people are seriously affected by climate change at a total economic cost of $125 billion per year. By 2030, worldwide deaths will reach almost 500,000 per year; people affected by climate change annually are expected to rise to over 600 million and the total annual economic cost increase to around $300 billion. The report was prepared by Dalberg Global Development Advisers last year and was reviewed by scientists of the Inter-Governmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) of the World Meteorological Organization (WHO), Columbia University, and Oxfam GB. Former UN Secretary General Kofi A. Annan who heads GHF, introduced the report and said: “Climate change is a silent
human crisis. Yet it is the greatest emerging humanitarian challenge of our
time. Already today, it causes suffering to hundreds of millions of people most
of whom are not even aware that they are victims of climate change. We need an
international agreement to contain climate change and reduce its widespread
suffering. Statistics of insecurity Numbers showing growing outlays for the military, increasing trade in arms and large armed forces as well as more of the world’s people being poor and going hungry are not directly related. Yet they can all be seen as statistics of insecurity. A case can be made, not on these pages, that if countries not threatened by armed force would spend more on economic development, poverty and hunger could be lessened. They are as much a source of instability as military aggression. It is disturbing, however, that recent growth in military spending is occurring in regions and countries where people are not only less secure than ten years ago but have remained poor, hungry, and sick. Spending Worldwide military spending is still rising, both globally and in most regions, report international peace researchers and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). During the past decade, defense expenditures grew by an estimated 45 percent. In 2001, defense budgets of the world’s nations reached an estimated $839,000 million, representing 2.6 percent of world gross domestic product (GDP). In 2007 they reached an estimated $1,339,000 million. The biggest increases during the decade are recorded in Eastern Europe 162 percent, Middle East 62 percent, and in South Asia 57 percent. The US continues to lead the world in defense spending, representing 45 percent of the world total, and is followed by China, Russia, India, and the United Kingdom. Arms trade The world arms trade in the last five years, 2004-2008, rose dramatically to $114,386 million. The largest suppliers were the United States of America (31 percent), Russia (25 percent), followed by Germany (10 percent), France (8 percent), and the UK (4 percent). The leading importers of arms in 2004-2008 were China (11 percent of global trade volume), India (7 percent), United Arab Emirates (UAE) (6 percent), Korea (ROK) (6 percent), and Greece (4 percent). Exports to the Middle East rose by 38 percent and account for 18 percent of international arms transfers, mainly to the UAE, Israel, and Egypt. · Africa 7 percent, primarily to Algeria and South Africa. · Americas 11 percent, USA and Chile. · Asia 37 percent, China, India, Korea (ROK). · Europe 24 percent, Greece. Strength The size of the world’s armed forces has continued to decline, partly because of replacing sheer manpower with more lethal and technologically advanced weapons. An estimated 17.4 million men and women are currently serving in active armed forces of the world’s countries. 2009 1999 China (PRC) 2,250,000 2,820,000 USA 1,452,000 1,230,300 India 1,325,000 1,175,000 Russia 1,245,000 810,000 Korea (DPRK) 1,106,000 1,068,000 Korea (ROK) 687,000 672,000 Pakistan 650,000 587,000 Turkey 617,000 638,000 Iran 545,000 420,600 Vietnam 484,000 650,000 The military strength of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) of 4 million in 2009 dropped 10 percent over 2000. Troops belonging to European members numbering 2.5 million shrank by 12 percent during the same period. (No. 467 May 2009)UN call for action to avoid global water crisis The worldwide economic downturn, threats from North Korean nuclear ambition, insurgencies and strife in Afghanistan and the Middle East, and today’s spread of the deadly H1N1 virus occupy governments and vie for top play in the media. At the same time, world’s vital challenges of global vulnerability to climate change and the energy drawdown are not going away. Linked to them is the basic need for water, vital for life, and regrettably also a potential source of conflict and friction. These concerns are reflected in the summit of Central Asian leaders in Almaty on 28 April devoted to saving the Aral Sea, the imminent revision of the Nile Basin Treaty, and the recent triennial meeting of the 5th World Water Forum, on 16-22 March, in Istanbul. Its importance was underlined by the fact that participants came from 192 countries and included 9 heads of states or governments, 84 ministers, and some 250 parliamentarians. The forum coincided with the release of the 3rd edition of the UN World Water Development Report which calls for urgent action if a global water crisis is to be avoided. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the state of the world’s freshwater resources and shows how changes in water demand and supply are affected by and affect other global dynamics. It was prepared by 26 UN agencies engaged in the World Water Assessment Program (WWAP). While contamination and drying up of water sources is an elementary part of the problem, other factors are frequently overlooked: • Chronic lack of political support, • Poor governance, • Underinvestment, • Population growth, • Increasing consumption, • Climate change, and • Misuse and waste. The report cites numerous instances of pressure on water such as the following: • Demographics and the increasing consumption that comes with rising per capita incomes are the most important drivers. • Demand for energy–for heat, light, power and transportation–is increasing rapidly. • The increase in the production of bioenergy has potentially important impacts on water quality and availability. • Agriculture is the largest consumer of freshwater by far–about 70 percent of all freshwater withdrawals go to irrigated agriculture. The world’s population is growing by about 80 million people a year, implying increased freshwater demand of about 64 billion cubic meters a year. • An estimated 90 percent of the 3 billion people who are expected to be added to the population by 2050 will be in developing countries, many in regions where the current population does not have sustainable access to safe drinking water and adequate sanitation. • By 2050, 22 percent of the world’s population is expected to be 60 years old or older. At the same time, nearly half the world population is under the age of 25. Natural resource needs, including freshwater, are expected to increase due to longer life expectances and globalization of trade and advertising tempting more consumption by young people. • According to the International Energy Agency, the world will need almost 602 times more energy in 2030 than in 2020. Water is needed for the production of energy of all types, so expansion of energy supply will affect water resources. • Water use is uneven across countries. The 10 largest water users (in volume) are India, China, the United States, Pakistan, Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Mexico, and the Russian Federation. • Around 20 percent of total water used globally is from groundwater sources (renewable or not), and this share is rising rapidly, particularly in dry areas. • With rapid population growth, water withdrawals have tripled over the last 50 years. This trend is explained largely by the rapid increase in irrigation development stimulated by food demand in the 1970s and by the continued growth of agriculture-based economies. The forum called special attention to Sub-Saharan Africa which remains mired in poverty. The percentage of the population living in absolute poverty is essentially the same as it was 25 years ago. About 340 million Africans lack access to safe drinking water, and almost 500 million lack access to adequate sanitation. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa store only about 4 percent of their annual renewable flows, compared with 70-90 percent in many developed countries, yet water storage is essential to ensure reliable sources of water for irrigation. (No. 466 April 2009) The UN Security Council approved renewal of peacekeeping mandates in Chad-Central African Republic (UNSCR 1861), Somalia (1863), Nepal (1864), Ivory Coast (1865), and Timor Leste (1867). It approved continued support for the Middle East Quartet (1860), urged resolution of the dispute between Djibouti and Eritrea (1862), and continued the mission in Georgia (1866). The President issued statements on protection of civilians (14 Jan.), the situation in Guinea-Bissau (3 March), and support for African Union (AU) missions (18 March ). (No.465 March 2009) Internationally, the Chinese have been busy trying to gain support for two items on their agenda: More representation of developing countries in the UN Security Council and the adoption of an artificial international currency to replace the US dollar as world standard. (No.465 March 2009)
WORLD LEADERSHIP TURNOVER IN 2008 In 2008, 73 of the world’s current 195 states changed heads of state or government (64 in 2007). There were two coups d’état, in Guinea and again in Mauritania. A number of the changes and elections that occurred would not pass the international standard of fairness and openness. There were 21 changes, excluding reelections of incumbents, at the head of state level (20 in 2007). At least 52 heads of government were elected, reelected, or newly appointed (48 in 2007). Two heads of state (Guinea and Zambia) died in office. The chairmanship of the presidency rotated in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Switzerland and in San Marino two semi-annual changes took place. Most of the turnovers again occurred in Europe (24; 17 in 2007), and in Africa (18; 13 in 2007), followed by Asia (14; 17 in 2007), and in the Americas (8; 8 in 2007). Fewer shifts took place in Near East and North Africa (5; 9 in 2007) and in Oceania (3; 6 in 2007). A number of widely known government leaders were not reelected or resigned during the year: Dr. Fidel Castro Ruz, President and Head of Government of Cuba since 1976, decided not to stand for reelection because of poor health; Robert Sedrakovich Kocharian, President of Armenia, since 1998; Alfred Gusenbauer, Federal Chancellor of Austria, since 2007, when the “grand coalition” fell apart after a year and-a-half; Festus Gontebanye Mogae, President of Botswana, since 1998; Bertie Ahearn, Prime Minister of Ireland, since 1997; Prof. Romano Prodi, Prime Minister of Italy, since 2006; Yasuo Fukuda, Prime Minister of Japan, resigned and was replaced by his party after only one year in office; Roo Moo hyon, President of the Republic of Korea, since 2004; Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, the second President of the Maldives, since 1978; King Gyanendra Bir Bikram Shav Dev of Nepal, since 2001, when the monarchy was abolished and replaced by a republican form on government; Ms. Helen Clark, Prime Minister of New Zealand, since 1999; General Pervez Musharraf, Military Ruler of Pakistan, since 2001; Vladimir Vladimorovich Putin, President of Russia since 2000 (but reappeared a day later as prime minister); Vojislav Kostunica, Prime Minister of Serbia, since 2004; Thabo Mvuyelwa Mbeki, President of South Africa, since 1999; Chen Shui-bian, President of Taiwan, since 2000, found himself not only in legal trouble after leaving office but under arrest for alleged corruption; and George Walker Bush, President of the United States of America, since 2001. (No. 464 February 2009)A new year The start of 2009 was occasion for messages from a number of political leaders: China’s Hu Jintao urged world peace and prosperity, Britain’s Gordon Brown expressed his confidence that the nation would master the economic crisis, Angela Merkel reminded Germans that with all the economic setbacks they live in peace and don’t have to suffer daily like people in war-torn countries, and Dmitriy Medvedev praised the Russian people for how much they can accomplish together. (No. 463 January 2009) On 1 January, a number of countries took over the chairmanship of organizations: Italy, Group of Eight (G8); Angola, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); Czech Republic, European Union (for 6 months); and Greece, Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). (No. 463 January 2009) Obsolete world bodies Before the French president turned over the presidency of the European Union (EU) to his Czech colleague, he sharply criticized the lack of representation by the world’s larger nations and African countries in international bodies. Addressing the UN Summit on Financing Development, on 29 November, in Doha, he singled out the Group of Eight (G8), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the UN Security Council. He said that G8 is now obsolete because you cannot resolve the common global economic crisis without China, Brazil, and other emerging economic powers. He called for IMF to be more inclusive and better African representation in the UN Security Council which does not have a single African permanent member. (No. 463 January 2009) World leaders met in Washington to combat the economic crisis but the most tangible outcome was agreement on another summit meeting in April in London. (No. 463 January 2009)
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